2023, a decisive year for the international 'permacrisis' and its effects
When it seemed that the world was recovering from the setback of the covid-19 pandemic, the unexpected start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 was a harsh It hit the international stage with serious consequences for each and every one of the planet's inhabitants: energy crisis, inflation, food insecurity >, breakdown of security and governance systemsinternational… This is the latest example of the “complexity of the international order” and how the “multifaceted crises” that are emerging have repercussions on citizens in the first person . And 2023 will be the first. It will be a decisive year for this 'permacrisis' -chosen word of the year and which alludes to a “prolonged period of instability and insecurity, especially as a result of a series of catastrophic events”- and their effects, according to the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB) in its international note for the new year. , prepared in collaboration with the Esade Geo Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics.
“Complexity is not negative and should be in the answer to these crises” because “there is no easy way out”, pointed out the director of CIDOB, Pol Morillas, this Tuesday during the presentation of the note, in In which the 'think tank' focuses on 10 issues that will mark the international agenda in the new year.
In the specific case of the war in Ukraine, CIDOB uses the simile of an American pool table in which the Russian invasion of the Slavic country has been the cue ball “that has had an impact on the transformations and crises that were underway, speeding up some of them”, highlighted Carme Colomina, a researcher at the center and coordinator of the report. And a peace scenario is not likely, not even peace negotiations, which could lead to a softening of the crises. According to the experts of this 'think tank', neither of the two sides is interested. currently in the phase of considering that an agreement is more beneficial than continuing the conflict.
Among the effects of the war to be taken into account for 2023, CIDOB highlights the impact that will continue after the war. about access to basic goods (food, energy), weak economic growth and the specter of the recession. ;n, the increase in discomfort and protest around the world and the stumbling blocks to implement the green and digital transition due to the energy crisis. “After the winter of discontent, with strikes and protests all over the world, we will have to see what impact they will have. We live in a world where there are more and more protests but they are less and less effective,” he added. Colomina.
In their report, the experts also outline possible geostrategic consequences of the 'permacrisis,' such as the role they will play the “others“, in reference to the medium-sized powers that have regional power and aspire to have global influence capacity. This is the case of Turkey, Brazil, India or Saudi Arabia , which can tip the balance It is towards one of the three world powers -the United States, Russia and China-, since they keep the channels of cooperation open with all of them.
In the chapter on democracies and dictatorships, CIDOB underlines how authoritarianism is It will learn about gaining ground on the planet (70% of the world population lives under the yoke of a dictatorship), but how autocratic regimes are equally under pressure. As an example of the latter, he gives the protests in Iran triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini during her arrest for mis-veiling, in which the regime is harassing. betting on “a war of attrition”, according to Moussa Bourekba, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa; the response that arose in China for the 'zero covid' policy that has ended up triggering its revocation but has led the country to an uncertain situation before the first outbreak of coronavirus no draconian restrictions; or the “high degree of internal pressure” suffered by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, because of the war.
About China, it will be It is important to be attentive to the evolution of the conflict with Taiwan and whether this “could be a new scenario of global tension,” said Inés Arco, a researcher specializing in East Asia and Chinese politics. “The conflict cannot be ruled out, and it would have disastrous economic consequences due to the blockade of world maritime trade, since 30% passes through the Taiwan Strait,” Arco pointed out, before considering that it is unlikely that the tension could get out of control in 2023.
In the case of friction between the United States and the European Union on account of the legislation approved by the White House to fight Against inflation, described as protectionist by Brussels, Morillas has considered that there will be It remains to be seen how far the Twenty-seven are willing to go to “counter” these policies. In any case, he added, “it is the most solid alliance in the world, and now it is more reinforced than before the war.”
And returning to the yes In addition to the billiard table, CIDOB finally points out the challenges that the “black ball” can cause, that is, “everything that can blow up forecasts, times and strategies of international politics”, such as a nuclear attack or accident.