2025 Budget: François Bayrou in a delicate position after his remarks on the “feeling of migratory submersion”

The Socialists are considering filing a motion of censure as a crucial joint committee (CMP) examines the finance bill this Thursday.

It is a little after 4 p.m. this Wednesday when a Socialist official texts us: “Nothing new under the sun, it's all smoke and mirrors!” Patrick Mignola, the Minister for Relations with Parliament, but also very close to François Bayrou, has just responded to Patrick Kanner, president of the Socialist group in the Senate.

The latter questioned him, as part of questions to the government, on the term ‘submersion’ used by the Prime Minister on Monday evening on LCI and which had pushed the socialists to abruptly break off negotiations on the budget.

‘I cannot remain silent after the remarks made by the Prime Minister… The son of Polish Jewish immigrants that I am has been hurt,’ says Patrick Kanner.

Response from the Modem minister: ‘Words are traps’. He insists on the fact that François Bayrou spoke of a feeling of submersion and not of real submersion, thus seeming to take a slight step back.

“Such a sensitive subject”

At the end of her speech, the socialist senator Laurence Rossignol applauds, as does Patrick Kanner. But the satisfaction is only a facade. The emotion remains high among the socialists. “On such a sensitive subject, words must be chosen carefully and feelings must not be confused with reality”, confides François Hollande's entourage.

Hence the expectation of a real mea culpa but not only that… “Patrick Kanner asked for two things: to come back to the term “migratory submersion” and not to cut back on State Medical Aid, he did not get an answer on any of these questions”, the senator's entourage explains to us.

The CMP is looking at the budget this Thursday

The future of the 2025 budget is now pending at the Joint Committee (CMP) which begins this Thursday at 9:30 a.m. Made up of 7 deputies and 7 senators, with a presidential bloc and a right-wing majority, this body will try to reach a compromise. If the CMP is conclusive, the selected text will be examined next week at the Assembly, in a new reading. This is when that François Bayrou could activate article 49.3 for an adoption without a vote, or else let the debate unfold with an uncertain outcome. Tensions with the PS could put the National Rally (RN) back at the center of the game by once again putting in the hands of the far-right party a possible censure of the government.

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Johanna Rolland, the mayor of Nantes, who that very morning on Public Sénat called for censuring the government, is still in the same frame of mind at midday.

On BFM, she repeats that “this subject alone deserves censure”. Pierre Jouvet, MEP, secretary general of the PS and close to Olivier Faure, shares this point of view: “I am in favour of censure”, he assured on Wednesday evening.

Towards a socialist motion of censure

But deep down the socialists are very annoyed. Behind the former President who, on Wednesday evening, was still defending stability, off the record, a certain number of elected officials explain that some of their voters want the budget to be voted. “There is a real divide between the metropolises and the less dense areas where the fear of instability is much stronger”, an elected official explained to us yesterday.

Therefore, supporting the motion of censure which will be tabled by LFI at the end of the joint committee does not seem to be on the agenda. On the other hand, the party with the rose would be considering, according to the confidences of one of its elected representatives, another motion of censure which would only concern the question of migration or the term “submersion”.

 

“They can do it, article 49.2 allows it. They need 58 signatures and they will have no trouble finding them” , explained to us on Wednesday, a Liot deputy (Liberties, independents, overseas and territories) who does not exclude that some members of his group vote for this text “because the tension “rise”.

The cost of words

At the same time, the socialists are taking advantage of this crisis to try to obtain new concessions in the budget. MP Philippe Brun, who sits on the joint committee, has requested “an immediate increase in the minimum wage” and a “increase in the activity bonus” .

The socialists are also demanding the “restoration of the Green Fund credits” and that the surtax on the profits of large groups be planned for two years and not one.

After the 2% increase in the minimum wage decided by Michel Barnier on November 1, will François Bayrou decide in turn to increase the legal minimum wage ? Pushed by Bercy, the track is on the Matignon table. If it is arbitrated by the Prime Minister, this increase would be 1% on July 1st. “Words are traps”, said Patrick Mignola, they also risk having a cost.

According to an Elabe-BFMTV poll, published Wednesday, 67% of French people believe that there is a “migratory submersion” in France. I subscribe to read the rest