2025 Budget: The deputies and senators of the joint committee have reached an agreement, a probable 49.3 in the Assembly as of Monday

This Friday, January 31, 2025, the senators and deputies gathered for the joint committee finally reached an agreement on the 2025 budget.

A milestone for the budget: the joint committee (CMP) bringing together seven deputies and seven senators reached a compromise version within the government coalition on Friday, without dispelling the threats of censure still raised by the left and the RN.

After a day and a half of work behind closed doors, this conclave of parliamentarians resulted in a joint copy adopted by eight votes to six, according to several parliamentary sources.

The text thus voted must respect the government's ambition to reduce the deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2025, confirmed one of these sources.

This agreement was hardly in doubt: the government camp is in fact the majority in the CMP and the two rapporteurs, Senator Jean-François Husson (LR) and MP David Amiel (Renaissance), had agreed on the vast majority of the measures. But this is only one step on a steep path for Prime Minister François Bayrou.

This joint text will be examined in the hemicycle of the National Assembly on Monday, with the very probable use of article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution to have the text adopted without a vote. A motion of censure will then undoubtedly follow and could be examined as early as Wednesday.

The government can still make final decisions by Monday and amend the text, but Finance Minister Éric Lombard promised on TF1 in the morning that the government “will respect the text that comes out” of the CMP.

Debates on AME

On Friday, the debates became tense around the very sensitive issue of State Medical Aid (AME), a rare bone of contention within the base commun.

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Two proposals thus clashed, that of Mr. Husson and the senators (-200 million euros out of 1.3 billion), and that of Mr. Amiel (-111 million euros, i.e. the maintenance of the 2024 credits), according to parliamentary sources. It was ultimately the latter that was adopted.

The socialists, who were demanding that the credits be maintained at the level proposed in the initial version of the bill, at 1.3 billion, voted for Mr. Amiel's amendment due to their inability to have theirs adopted, and for fear that the Senate's version would prevail.

A modification of certain criteria for access to AME, voted by the Senate, was also removed with a union of left-wing and Macronist votes, against those of the right and the National Rally.

“The AME criteria remain unchanged”, the socialist leaders rejoiced, hailing “a victory” in these negotiations during which they obtained only rare concessions.

“Total humiliation of the LR on the budget and immigration!”, reacted the RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy sur X, leader of the RN on the budget.

Conversely, the Insoumis denounced the PS's attitude. “Macronie and government supporters are cutting AME! It's the far right that governs ? Censorship is essential. No NFP elected official can let such a budget be adopted”, tweeted Aurélien Le Coq, member of the CMP.

The doubt of censorship

The socialists nevertheless claim other “victories” on the Green Fund, the organic agency, daily transport and especially the restoration of 4,000 teaching positions, confirmed by the commission.

But overall, the CMP limited itself to enshrining the commitments made by François Bayrou in mid-January, refusing all the additional taxes proposed by the socialists.

“None of their proposals were accepted”, noted Eric Coquerel (LFI), denouncing “the worsening” of certain cuts in the budget of many ministries.

While the socialists were pleased to have “obtained 300 million for ecology”, the leader of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier noted that this remained “a billion less than in the Barnier budget of October”.

While the government is planning a budgetary effort of 50 billion euros, parliamentarians have ratified several flagship measures, such as limiting the exceptional contribution for large companies to a single financial year (instead of two), the subject of criticism from the LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault.

The debates were also the scene of a speech by National Rally MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who threatened the government with censure if it maintained Article 4 of the bill, which establishes a new framework for regulating EDF's revenues from nuclear power.

“If this article passes (in the final version, Editor's note), it will mean, in the coming decade, an increase in the price of electricity for businesses and households of another 10%”, insisted Jean-Philippe Tanguy on RTL on Friday.

Will the PS and RN censure François Bayrou ? Doubt continues to hover.