Analysis | Chef's Debates: Whose Newbie's Luck? | Elections Quebec 2022
This that we will have to watch in this second half of the campaign, in particular during the two televised clashes.
From left to right: François Legault (Coalition avenir Québec), Dominique Anglade (Parti Quebec Liberal), Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (Québec solidaire), Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (Parti québécois), Éric Duhaime (Conservative Party of Quebec).
Françoise David made a strong impression during the first debate of the 2012 election campaign. Faced with experienced opponents, the co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire was able to bring a breath of fresh air.
Observers had made the same observation about Mario Dumont during the 1998 debate, or more recently, Manon Massé in 2018.
In his book about the last election campaign, titledWho Framed the Parti Québécois?, Jean-François Lisée aptly describes the climate that prevailed in the days leading up to the leaders' debates.
Nobody knew what would be the #x27;impact of Manon Massé on the debate. Being a woman was an advantage, but would she pull off Françoise David's feat in previous debates, or would her personality stick less with the listener? Mystery.
If it does not manifest itself systematically, the advantage enjoyed by a party leader who is new to debate can sometimes be decisive.
L& #x27;former PQ leader continues: The mystery didn't last long. Just after the first debate, in the daily reports, the QS and Manon Massé curves, which had dipped significantly in the previous days, began to improve.
For the first time in the history of Quebec, the two debates scheduled for this year will oppose five opponents, four of whom will be in their first experience.
In this context, it is difficult to No one knows who will benefit from beginner's luck, but many expect Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and Éric Duhaime to steal the show. It is true that the co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire proved to be one of the toughest adversaries for François Legault in the National Assembly.
The latter does not seem to disdain a good confrontation with the head of QS. It has even become, one might say, his favorite adversary, as illustrated by his recent outings on Orange Taxes.
As for Éric Duhaime, one only has to see the ease with which he avoids the many traps set for him to convince himself of his talents as a rhetorician. It is true that the Conservative leader has lost some of his luster in recent days, with his stories of unpaid tax bills, but a good performance in the debates would be the best diversion.
The challenge will consist, for both Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and Éric Duhaime, in carefully measuring their attacks in order to avoid giving the impression of having criticism as their only argument.
The work of Jean-François Lisée teaches us, however, that it is not those whose talent we know that we must be most wary of:
[Manon Massé] would benefit from the fact that, no one perceived her as a threat, no one was going to contradict her. His arguments were not going to have to jump any serious hurdles, which, in a debate, is an advantageous situation.
In context, Dominique Anglade and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon could therefore also surprise. It's that expectations are lower for them.
It is true that one could hardly imagine a more difficult start to the campaign for the Liberal leader. Four days before the deadline, some forty candidates have still not officially filed their ballot with Elections Quebec. Not to mention the 16.3 billion error identified on Wednesday in the party's financial framework. Despite all this adversity, Dominique Anglade has shown great resilience so far, which could serve her well.
As for the leader of the Parti Québécois, even if he has not galvanized the crowds so far, he was able to amaze with the clarity of his message and the sincerity of his convictions, in particular on the show Five leaders, one election. Considering his low notoriety, he has everything to gain from making himself known — and there's nothing like a two-debate streak to achieve that.
Our analysis of the performance of the leaders at the show Five chiefs, one election
Faced with so many opponents, the two upcoming debates are likely to be trying for François Legault. Not only is the exercise often more difficult for an outgoing prime minister, but the head of the CAQ also has the unfortunate tendency to put his foot in the dish, as we have seen in recent times.
The challenge will be for him to respond to each of his opponents without being arrogant and without giving the impression of being constantly on the defensive. To do this, he will have to find the right balance between replicating, attacking and proposing. His recent criticism of his counterparts gives us a hint of how he intends to go about standing out. Let us think in particular of the question of immigration.
In all fairness, it should be noted that the exercise of the debate has already smiled on François Legault. In 2014, the head of the CAQ managed to revive a faltering campaign thanks to his energetic performance during the second debate. elsewhere not always. Talk to Andrew Scheer, Erin O'Toole or Jagmeet Singh, who failed to hold their own against a Justin Trudeau who, in power since 2015, could no longer play the novelty card.
The election campaign has so far not raised great passions, but the two scheduled debates could make it a little more exciting.