Analysis | Clear victory for the CAQ thanks to the division of the vote | Elections Quebec 2022

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Analysis | Clear victory for the CAQ thanks to the division of the vote | Élections Québec 2022

The other parties save the day, but they will all have serious questions to ask.

The leader of the Coalition avenir Québec, François Legault, delivers a speech following the victory of his political party.

The victory of the CAQ does not is a surprise to no one. From the beginning to the end of his mandate, and from the beginning to the end of the electoral campaign, the party of François Legault will have been in first place in terms of voting intentions.

The CAQ obtains a strong mandate, even stronger than the first, with more votes and a greater percentage of support. However, we are far from the polls that gave him up to 50% of voting intentions at the heart of the pandemic.

The party made gains at the expense of the Liberal Party in Laval, Québec solidaire in Abitibi-Témiscamingue and the Parti Québécois in Est-du-Québec; on the other hand, he was unable to increase his deputies on the island of Montreal – which did not bode well for the metropolis. To say that the Prime Minister did not help himself with his comments on immigration would be an understatement.

We certainly cannot hold François Legault responsible for the inability of the other parties to shine more, but the CAQ leader must secretly rejoice at not having reformed the voting system.

Above all, the CAQ was able to take advantage of the fragmentation of the opposition. His four opponents had between 13% and 15% support each, a near perfect split of the dissatisfaction vote. With 41% of the votes cast, his victory is comparable to those obtained by the PLQ in 2014 and 2008.

The voters obviously did not hold it against François Legault for his many missteps; in fact, it's as if the campaign never happened – the CAQ garnering precisely the same level of support today as it did at the end of August.

With his majority, François Legault will have free rein to carry out his second term, but the pressure will be strong. If the pandemic could justify the delay in certain respects, the CAQ will now have to honor its commitments. Citizens are likely to be particularly demanding when it comes to access to public services, such as health care and childcare.

Liberal leader Dominique Anglade was re-elected in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne and will be the leader of the official opposition.

The CAQ is not the only one to take advantage of the voting system. The Liberal Party obtained fewer votes than Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois taken individually, which does not prevent it from electing about ten more MNAs than the two political parties combined.

Thanks to the concentration of its vote, the PLQ saves the furniture and preserves its official opposition status, but the political party has nothing to cheer about. In 2018, the Liberals had the worst score in their history with 25% support; they are now down to less than 15% of the vote.

Dominique Anglade's promises obviously did not inspire many Quebecers. The Liberal vote is more than ever concentrated on the island of Montreal, which will do nothing to help the party reconnect with the French-speaking majority – an essential prelude to any return to power.

Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois spoke to Quebec Solidaire activists late Monday evening.

On the rise since its founding, Québec solidaire now seems to be leveling off, despite the solid campaign led by its co-spokesperson, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois. The party made gains in Montreal, but suffered a loss in Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue. His popular vote is also down.

Even if the party was able to keep the riding of Sherbrooke, its inability to grow in the region is painful. QS wanted to break into Saint-François, Rimouski and Ungava in particular – except that the race was not even tight. The mere fact that the term orange taxes has fallen into common usage in the space of a few weeks speaks volumes about the struggles of the party.

Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon won the Montreal riding of Camille-Laurin.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon won his bet by being elected in Camille-Laurin in Montreal, which will allow him to enter the National Assembly. Obtaining 15% support is certainly preferable to obtaining 9% – as the polls at the start of the campaign suggested – but we must not lose sight of the fact that the PQ did less well than in the last election. With each defeat, the PQ speaks of reconstruction, but the situation only deteriorates from one election to another.

The PQ leader had a good campaign; however, he owes a great debt to the candidate of Quebec solidaire in Camille-Laurin, forced to withdraw after a leaflet theft. It's that less fragmentation of the vote seems to have helped him. Sitting in the Blue Room will allow Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to increase his visibility and that of his party; they will need it, because taking care of everything with three MPs will not be easy.

The leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, Éric Duhaime, addressed his militants on Monday evening.

The situation is particularly frustrating for the Conservative Party. Eric Duhaime's troops collected more than half a million votes but failed to elect a single deputy, which can only fuel their doubts about the legitimacy of our democratic institutions.

The Conservative leader promises to be in the running for the next election; Going through the next four years without any representation in the National Assembly, however, could be very difficult. Not to mention that the pandemic and health measures – a source of mobilization within the party – may seem a long way off in 2026.

At 66.05%, the rate of turnout is among the lowest on record. While the political offer has never been greater, it is surprising and disturbing to see so many citizens sulking at the ballot box.

The opposition parties will no doubt use this low rate to reduce the extent of the CAQ victory, but they must not forget that if the turnout was so low, it is also because they themselves did not failed to inspire voters.

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Analysis | Clear victory for the CAQ thanks to the division of the vote | Elections Quebec 2022

Spread the love

Analysis | Clear victory for the CAQ thanks to the division of the vote | ÉQuebec 2022 elections

The other parties save the day, but they will all have serious questions to ask.

The leader of the Coalition avenir Québec, François Legault, delivers a speech following the victory of his political party.

The victory of the CAQ does not is a surprise to no one. From the beginning to the end of his mandate, and from the beginning to the end of the electoral campaign, the party of François Legault will have been in first place in terms of voting intentions.

The CAQ obtains a strong mandate, even stronger than the first, with more votes and a greater percentage of support. However, we are far from the polls that gave him up to 50% of voting intentions at the heart of the pandemic.

The party made gains at the expense of the Liberal Party in Laval, Québec solidaire in Abitibi-Témiscamingue and the Parti Québécois in Est-du-Québec; on the other hand, he was unable to increase his deputies on the island of Montreal – which did not bode well for the metropolis. To say that the Prime Minister did not help himself with his comments on immigration would be an understatement.

We certainly cannot hold François Legault responsible for the inability of the other parties to shine more, but the CAQ leader must secretly rejoice at not having reformed the voting system.

Above all, the CAQ was able to take advantage of the fragmentation of the opposition. His four opponents had between 13% and 15% support each, a near perfect split of the dissatisfaction vote. With 41% of the votes cast, his victory is comparable to those obtained by the PLQ in 2014 and 2008.

The voters obviously did not hold it against François Legault for his many missteps; in fact, it's as if the campaign never happened – the CAQ garnering precisely the same level of support today as it did at the end of August.

With his majority, François Legault will have free rein to carry out his second term, but the pressure will be strong. If the pandemic could justify the delay in certain respects, the CAQ will now have to honor its commitments. Citizens are likely to be particularly demanding when it comes to access to public services, such as health care and childcare.

Liberal leader Dominique Anglade was re-elected in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne and will be the leader of the official opposition.

The CAQ is not the only one to take advantage of the voting system. The Liberal Party obtained fewer votes than Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois taken individually, which does not prevent it from electing about ten more MNAs than the two political parties combined.

Thanks to the concentration of its vote, the PLQ saves the furniture and preserves its official opposition status, but the political party has nothing to cheer about. In 2018, the Liberals had the worst score in their history with 25% support; they are now down to less than 15% of the vote.

Dominique Anglade's promises obviously did not inspire many Quebecers. The Liberal vote is more than ever concentrated on the island of Montreal, which will do nothing to help the party reconnect with the French-speaking majority – an essential prelude to any return to power.

Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois spoke to Quebec Solidaire activists late Monday evening.

On the rise since its founding, Québec solidaire now seems to be leveling off, despite the solid campaign led by its co-spokesperson, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois. The party made gains in Montreal, but suffered a loss in Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue. His popular vote is also down.

Even if the party was able to keep the riding of Sherbrooke, its inability to grow in the region is painful. QS wanted to break into Saint-François, Rimouski and Ungava in particular – except that the race was not even tight. The mere fact that the term orange taxes has fallen into common usage in the space of a few weeks speaks volumes about the struggles of the party.

Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon won the Montreal riding of Camille-Laurin.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon won his bet by being elected in Camille-Laurin in Montreal, which will allow him to enter the National Assembly. Obtaining 15% support is certainly preferable to obtaining 9% – as the polls at the start of the campaign suggested – but we must not lose sight of the fact that the PQ did less well than in the last election. With each defeat, the PQ speaks of reconstruction, but the situation only deteriorates from one election to another.

The PQ leader had a good campaign; however, he owes a great debt to the candidate of Quebec solidaire in Camille-Laurin, forced to withdraw after a leaflet theft. It's that less fragmentation of the vote seems to have helped him. Sitting in the Blue Room will allow Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to increase his visibility and that of his party; they will need it, because taking care of everything with three MPs will not be easy.

The leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, Éric Duhaime, addressed his militants on Monday evening.

The situation is particularly frustrating for the Conservative Party. Eric Duhaime's troops collected more than half a million votes but failed to elect a single deputy, which can only fuel their doubts about the legitimacy of our democratic institutions.

The Conservative leader promises to be in the running for the next election; Going through the next four years without any representation in the National Assembly, however, could be very difficult. Not to mention that the pandemic and health measures – a source of mobilization within the party – may seem a long way off in 2026.

At 66.05%, the rate of turnout is among the lowest on record. While the political offer has never been greater, it is surprising and disturbing to see so many citizens sulking at the ballot box.

The opposition parties will no doubt use this low rate to reduce the extent of the CAQ victory, but they should not forget that if the turnout was so low, it is also because they themselves did not failed to inspire voters.