Analysis | Consolation for Biden and fading magic for Trump | Midterm elections in the United States
Election night was less painful than expected for Joe Biden's Democrats.
Even without definitive results for the control of Congress, the situation is less catastrophic than expected for Joe Biden who seems to have limited the damage. On the other hand, one thing is clear: Donald Trump's influence is bruised within the Republican Party.
As election night wore on, the news wasn't all bad for the White House. Yes, control of the House of Representatives seemed to be going into Republican hands, but with much smaller margins than expected. Only a handful of seats difference.
According to NBC projections, the distribution could be 216 for the Democrats against 219 for the Republicans, a majority more fragile than ever in this chamber of 435 representatives. In fact, a potentially smaller majority than the Democrats.
The fate of the Senate is still undefined, but the gain of Pennsylvania for the Democrats must hurt the Republicans who hoped to keep this pivotal state. The candidate Mehmet Oz, put forward by Donald Trump, was going to change the situation. However, here again, the Trump magic did not work against John Fetterman, a former lieutenant governor who suffered a stroke a few months ago and who made his performance in the debate against the Republican very difficult.
In Arizona, the haunt of many candidates selected by the former president, all followers of the great lie of massive electoral fraud at the expense of the Republicans, Blake Masters does not seem to have succeeded in dethroning the Democrat Mark Kelly.
In New Hampshire, Republicans were pinning a lot of hope on the candidacy of former General Don Bolduc, ardently supported by Trump to sweep Democrat Maggie Hassan and thus hope to wrest control of the Senate. Here again, a sword in the water.
The case of Georgia remains pending since even with a very narrow lead of incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock against Republican Herschel Walker, there will more than likely be a second round on December 6.
From his haunt of Mar-A-Lago, Donald Trump may have to do some soul-searching after this lackluster election night for Republicans
With such results, Republicans must raise serious questions about Trump's real power over the party and its troops. Because no offense to his supporters, the magic of the former president did not really work for these midterm elections. Red wave hopes of the last few days did not materialize.
The many candidates dubbed by the Republican did not pass their passing exam and therefore failed. Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, had spoken of the problem of Trump's foals who were not always quality candidates, far from it. This is a remark that will come back to haunt the defeated president in 2020.
Meanwhile, a candidate is increasingly stepping into the spotlight and overshadowing the former president. Ron DeSantis, who won a second term as governor by beating his Democratic opponent, Charlie Crist, with a 20-point lead, has just seriously shaken the Trumpian foundations of the party.
The contrast was striking on Tuesday evening. On the one hand, a former president who put all his weight in the balance to select candidates from the party who, to obtain the support of the kingmaker, had to espouse without concession the cause of the stolen election before for two years now.
In his speech last night, we saw a Donald Trump with a triumphalist tone against the media (a habit) and who, without even waiting for the final results, trumpeted loud and clear that the victories were brilliant for his candidates, without any proof .
Ron DeSantis triumphant speech with his hunger in front of jubilant fans in Tampa
On the other side, it's a triumphant Ron DeSantis, all crowned with his clear victory et nette, which took stock of its accomplishments and touted the Florida model for the entire United States. The resounding victory also came from Miami-Dade County, which had not voted for a Republican gubernatorial candidate in two decades.
In a hard-hitting victory speech clearly aimed at a national audience, Florida's governor looks increasingly like a candidate contemplating higher office, portraying himself as a transformational leader who rocked the state decisively to the right, he said the survival of the American experience requires a revival of true American principles during his victory speech at the Tampa Convention Center. We offer a glimmer of hope that better days still lie ahead, he added.
In more good news for him, Republicans in Florida also won two seats in Congress and were poised to win supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, giving DeSantis even more leverage to launch a possible presidential campaign.
We will obviously have to wait for the results to be finalized, but Biden's calls for the protection of democracy in the face of Holocaust denier candidates in the 2020 election who wanted to change the rules of the game to ensure Republican victories at all costs in the future elections, may have changed the game in some races.
John Fetterman's victory for the Pennsylvania senator's seat is a win for the Democrats
The Democrats have done quite well by recording strong performances as governors of Michigan, Nevada or New York State against candidates who have questioned the legitimacy of President Biden since 2020.
Meanwhile, Republican candidates for the post of Secretary of State, a position that certifies the results of the elections and who had been chosen by Donald Trump, have not won their elections or are in the process of losing them. This is the case in Michigan of Kristina Karamo, who was beaten, and it would probably also be the case of Mark Finchem in Arizona, who would lose to the Democratic candidate.
At the moment As of this writing, Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who some have described as a high-heeled Donald Trump, was trailing Democrat Katie Hobbs. In the event of a confirmed defeat, it would be another earthquake in the pro-Trump Republican tectonic plates. It wouldn't be surprising if this slew of Arizona candidates cried voter fraud if they lost.
Somewhere in Mar-A-Lago, there is a former president who needs to do some soul-searching.