Analysis | Message to Democrats: “It's the economy, stupid!” »

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Analysis | Message To Democrats: “It’s the economy, stupid!”

Invented in 1992 by James Carville, a Democratic strategist, this expression “It's the economy, stupid!” has become a campaign shock phrase emphasizing the importance of the economy. It allowed Bill Clinton to win the presidency that year, against a George Bush senior visibly overwhelmed by events.

Inflation hurts the reputation of Democrats, even though Republicans probably couldn't have done better to fight it.< /p>

WASHINGTON — Today, as the recession ebbs and flows like it did 30 years ago, it's the Republicans who are using the same strategy to hurt the Democrats whose rise in the polls looks set to go wrong. be out of breath in this last stretch before the elections of November 8.

This spring, the Republicans' supremacy in the voting intentions was almost embarrassing for the Democrats. And then came the Supreme Court ruling on abortion access, seen as a resounding victory for Trump's party. But very quickly, support shifted to that of President Joe Biden, who found there an issue on which to build a dike of resistance against the Republican tsunami.

The polls were encouraging for Democrats with a comeback that appeared to galvanize hopes of retaining control of Congress. But, Democrats being who they are, always hesitant to go for the jugular, as campaigning Republicans understandably do, hopes have been waning for the past few weeks.

With an issue too cumbersome (abortion) to leave room for the promotion of the many achievements and legislative achievements of Congress, despite systematic partisan opposition from the Republicans, the Blues were overtaken on their right.

Bidenflation, a term that demonstrates the lack of creative originality of the Great Old Party (GOP) was put forward by the reds. Because the question that voters always ask when filling out their ballot remains almost always the same: has my lot gotten better since the last election or has it gotten worse?

The horizon for the Democrats seems to have darkened in recent weeks, as the November 8 election approaches

Gasoline prices, rising interest rates, skyrocketing food and material costs… Nothing to reassure the Democratic troops who face the electorate even if, quite honestly, the Republicans probably couldn't have done better. Moreover, their lack of concrete solutions to current economic problems speaks volumes about their political opportunism. But, it's fair game, it's part of the political game.

The Democratic voter is a funny “bug”. When he gets the chosen one he wanted, he then enters a lethargy with the feeling of duty accomplished. But in a context of ultra-partisanship and sometimes infighting within the Democratic camp, a Blue Congress can struggle to deliver on its promises. And that's what raises the eyebrows of the Democratic “bug” to the point where she may not come to vote again. Leaving all the way to the Republican supporters, cracked and impatient to oust the evil Democrats from power.

Because once again, the cliché remains the same, it will be the mobilization of the troops that will make the difference. After the mid-term elections of 2018 and a presidential election of 2020 which reached record participation, those of November 8 could surprise. In one camp as in the other.

Yet since coming to power, how many times has Biden saved the economy with mega-billions? The Republicans prefer not to talk about it and point the finger at the prices at the pump and the sores on the Stock Exchange (even if the Stock Exchange is not the economy, but shhh…).

The Republican Party, led by Kevin McCarthy in the House, intends to capitalize on voter anger over inflation without offering concrete solutions to economic problems.

Still, the simple, even simplistic, message from the Republicans deals serious blows to the Democratic electoral foundation. Until recently, races seemed won without too much trouble for some Democratic candidates. But today, the trend is not very good for Joe Biden's team.

For example, while Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman was leading the way against Mehmet Oz, the gap has narrowed considerably recently. Barack Obama is even called to the rescue to shake up the troops. In Michigan, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is now neck and neck with Tudor Nixon, something unthinkable more than a month ago. Worse: in Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto is now trailing Republican Adam Laxalt. As for Arizona, the Democratic hopes of retaining the post of governor seem to soar every day more.

For the past few days, Joe Biden seems to have understood that we must talk about economy, highlighting its deficit reduction for almost two years, gasoline prices down from recent highs and unemployment rate figures low to around 3.5%.< /p>

Even as gas prices edge away from recent highs, Joe Biden's Democrats struggle to recover the coast.

Joe Biden has his eye riveted on the only crucial barometer: that of the number of seats he needs to win in Congress to maintain a semblance of a majority in both chambers and thus attempt to govern without too many obstacles in the way, those This could come as much from Republican opponents as from certain members of his own party, as we have seen in recent months during tough negotiations to pass bills.

Again, the numbers speak for themselves. For now, representation in the Senate will not fundamentally change, with a 50 in 100 possibility, with Kamala Harris still able to break the tie on the big stakes.

The slim Democratic majority in the House of Representatives may not make the cut in some very tight races where the Republicans have a certain advantage with two weeks of the midterm elections.

But in the House of Representatives, it's a different story. To hope to keep their majority, the Democrats would have to seek a good twenty seats which oscillate between the two parties. In other words, an extremely difficult objective to achieve, while the Republicans can delight the House with less than ten seats located in the tight races.

And in this case, Joe Bien will become a lame duck more than ever for just under two years, with the possibility of only one bedroom on his side.

As voters vote based on their less well-stocked wallets and bank accounts, Carville's key phrase resonates more than ever: It's the economy, stupid! And it could make the difference once again, 30 years later…

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