Analysis | The beginning of the end for Trump? | Midterm elections in the United States
Donald Trump is expected to announce his third candidacy for the US presidency in the coming hours.
A few hours before his expected declaration of candidacy for the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump, who put all his political weight in the midterm elections, is increasingly coming under the wrath of his party. /p>
Which jeopardizes the effectiveness or even the viability of this third application. In any case, tongues are loosening and decline is inevitable.
After Trump lost the White House in 2020, most Republican Party leaders concluded that they could not win an election without the defeated president's voters.
The former tenant of the White House therefore found himself with the power to interfere in these midterm elections, while attracting the ;watch out for himself as he falsely claims the 2020 election was stolen.
From those poor results last Tuesday, a narrowly won House, a lost Senate, and gubernatorial positions handed over to the Democrats, they can conclude that they cannot win decisively as long as Trump holds that position of strength in the within the party.
Because, in fact, the bets on the candidates specially chosen by Donald Trump did not give the expected results.
Activist pro-Trump troops have had their hopes of a Republican tidal wave neutralized in races that have benefited Democrats.
At least 14 of Mr. Trump's hand-picked candidates lost in races that were potentially winnable in pivotal states and were critical to gaining control of Congress.
One failure among many others: Mehmet Oz, whom Mr. Trump supported for the Pennsylvania Senate, or Blake Masters, Arizona candidate for the Senate.
As for the fantasy of the ex-president of the stolen election in 2020, he who wanted to position his pawns in the posts of secretaries of state, posts which have the power to certify or not the results of presidential elections, the result was brutal.
Whether it's Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona, all swing states, they've all been beaten by the Democrats.
Donald Trump and his supporters may have fallen from the clouds seeing all these candidates being beaten soundly.
Unsubstantiated accusations of fraud here and there, the Trumpists, within their militant bubble, gorged themselves on Fox News, Newsmax and OAN, networks that claimed who better-better that the red wave was going to sweep away everything in its path.
They forgot the moderate voter, the independent, the reasoned conservative and all the others. As we have been reading a lot for a few days in the American press, the normies have won against the crazies.< /p>
Donald Trump has come under fire from the mixed results of the midterm elections.
So far, Donald Trump's influence in the party has was so strong that it almost became career suicide for Republican lawmakers to publicly criticize him. Some have learned this the hard way by not having been selected in the various primaries of 2022 for the midterm elections.
But, since the failure of the promised red tsunami, turmoil has been felt in the party. Even newly elected members, like Mike Lawler, who beat the powerful Democratic Party chairman to win his seat in New York, said he would like to see Republicans do without Trump.
No wonder that for the past few days, the calls to move on have been getting louder and louder.
Some distance themselves from the one who until now had the right of life or death over candidates. Tom Cotton, Republican Senator from Arkansas said that as Republicans, for now, we don't have just one leader. His colleague Bill Cassidy of Louisiana adds his two cents: all the candidates who were aligned with the past [Trump's presidency], are the ones who have had disappointing performances.
Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader who has become a favorite Trump target, had spoken candidly about the political challenges Republicans faced in Tuesday's election due to the wave of candidates – let's say imperfect or even weak – who had won the primaries largely due to Trump's endorsement.
The same goes for the Main Street Partnership caucus, a group of pragmatic conservative Republicans (which includes Senators Susan Collins or Jodi Ernst) who usually support the former president, but who for the past few days have held him responsible for the stumbles of the left because of the choice of candidates made by Trump.
Flags that bear the name of former US President Donald Trump at a political rally in the state of Pennsylvania.
The knives also fly low and fuse from all sides from strategists and tenors of the party.
Marc Thiessen, a former member of the W. Bush administration, didn't mince words, calling it an absolute disaster for the Republican Party.
We have the worst inflation in four decades, the worst real wage collapse in 40 years, the worst crime wave since the 1990s, the worst border crisis in US history and we have Joe Biden, who is the least popular president since Harry Truman, and there has been no red wave.
Scott Reed, a longtime Republican strategist paints a grim portrait of the performance From the ex-president: Trump has now lost three straight elections to the Republican Party and it's time to get out of this madness.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a longtime Trump friend and adviser turned critic drives home the point, arguing that Republicans have a fundamental decision to make.
We lost in 2018, he said. We lost in 2020. We lost in 2021 in Georgia. And now, in 2022, we're going to lose governorships, we're not going to win the number of House seats we thought, and we're not going to win the Senate despite a president who has a 40% approval rating. , there's only one person to blame for this and that's Donald Trump.
Result, Chris Sununu, Republican Governor Reelected to New Hampshire thinks Trump's coming on the scene so early in the 2024 race is ridiculous.
Republicans fear that this will cost them the chance to win back Georgia's Senate seat, which is up for grabs by Dec. 6. A seat that the Republican Party had not lost since 1992 and which passed to the Democrats in 2020, under the leadership of…Donald Trump.
Even the closest advisers from Trump like Jason Miller, whispered in the president's ear to wait at least for this second round in Georgia before announcing themselves. But Donald Trump being what he is, so he will go ahead tonight.
Charlie Sykes, a conservative, editor of The Bulwark, said this on MSNBC as he put himself in the shoes of Donald Trump. It basically means I'm not going quietly. I will declare myself a candidate. I don't care, I don't care who I hurt. If you don't name me, I'll burn the house down. I will destroy and attack any other Republican who comes against me.
What to echo the famous tweet of the Republican Senator from South Carolina, Lindsay Graham, who had written in 2016, when he had lent himself to the game of the presidential primary that if we choose to nominate Donald Trump as candidate for the presidential election, our party will be destroyed and we will have deserved it.
Trump insults are already raining down on potential candidates for the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
Trump still has many hard-earned supporters in the elected Republican leadership, such as Kevin McCarthy and Elise Stefanik in the House. But, the fact remains that his presence disturbs and risks fracturing the party.
These internal struggles could turn into political trench warfare, especially for those who would like to attract the pro-Trump clientele (which is not about to disappear) in its nets for future elections.
In the meantime, Trump fires the first salvoes, mocking his potential adversaries in the event of a possible Republican primaries for 2024.
The ex-president takes out the nicknames: Ron DeSantis, the powerful governor of Florida, became Ron DeSanctimonious (the moralizer) or Glenn Youngkin, governor of Virginia renamed Young Kin. Sounds Chinese, doesn't it, Trump writes. In Virginia, he couldn't have won without me.
He is Donald Trump's potential opponent for the Republican nomination. Who is Ron DeSantis, the popular Governor of Florida? Report by Frédéric Arnould.
The recipe, used effectively in 2016 to neutralize its opponents – do you remember Lyin' Ted, Little Marco or even Jeb Low Energy Bush – would it not tire the Republican activists themselves, eight years later?
Will the party then want to serve Trump, his favorite formula, You're fired? That remains to be seen. Because while Trump probably can't win the Republicans, he can make sure the party goes down with him.
With the right-wing media seemingly shying away from the ex-president more and more, Republicans certainly won't want to alienate this critical mass of pro-Trump supporters. Because, these, become orphans in the case of a forced departure of Trump from the political scene will then be able to decide not to present themselves at the polls in 2024, leaving all the room to the Democrats for a new presidency of their own. .
So what will be next for the ex-president in view of the very disappointing performance of his loyal troops last week? And what will be the consequences of this declaration of candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination?
Since Donald Trump has already compared himself to Winston Churchill, let's meditate on one of the latter's quotes for qualify this hasty declaration of this new candidacy in the current context.
Now is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.