Analysis | United States: Three Election Scenarios amid Declining Democracy | Midterm elections in the United States
In a very tense climate, millions of voters will go to the polls in less than 24 hours to renew the third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives.
No matter how turnout and campaign spending skyrockets, there are only three potential scenarios, two of which are realistically possible, for the midterm elections in the United States, as the democratic process American is more than ever threatened.
The first scenario, which would see the Democrats winning the House of Representatives and the Senate, is already to be evacuated.
Firstly for the simple and good reason that historically, in the vast majority of American presidencies, the party in power always loses on average dozens of seats in the House.
Only two US presidents succeeded in increasing their majority in both houses of Congress: Franklin Delano Roosevelt and George W. Bush. A rather low batting average, therefore, out of all the tenants of the White House.
If he stays in control of Congress, Biden has vowed to codify abortion rights, pass an assault weapons ban, likely double down on his plans to fund custody children and the community college and to reorganize the immigration system.
At the end of the campaign, Joe Biden tried to refocus voters' attention on the risks of the decline of democracy if pro-Trump Republicans who want to change the rules of the electoral game are elected.
Except that for months, no poll has shown that it is possible for Joe Biden to win Congress, especially in the context where his approval rate is living around 40%. For the White House to keep the advantage gained two years ago, however slight an advantage, remains mathematically and logically impossible.
Another scenario: the Democrats lose the House of Representatives, but keep the Senate. Until a few weeks ago, this assumption seemed relatively cast in stone, thus allowing Joe Biden to retain ultimate power, however small, over bills before having to use his presidential veto depending on what is proposed. But recently, the needle of the electoral barometer oscillates a little more in favor of the republicans for obtaining the two rooms.
Either way, if the Republicans win the House on Tuesday night – the odds are overwhelmingly in their favor – the political tone, already divisive and chaotic given the narrow Democratic majority of 221 seats to 212, will shift to a horribly oppositional one. anything the White House will do. We will have to see what type of leadership the authorities of the party – but especially Trump, who holds the GOP with an iron fist – will choose. If Republicans give free rein to Reps. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Matt Gaetz, and like-minded extremists, not much constructive will come out of the House.
Will the party's most extreme Republican candidates and elected officials such as Marjorie Taylor-Greene have some sway over the leadership of the next Congress?
What is certain, however, is that the Republicans will use their majority to try to overturn many of the bills passed and to completely change Biden's priorities, such as multi-billion dollar military aid to the United States. #x27;Ukraine or environmental initiatives. They will also try to use their political leverage to shut down or reduce the power of government agencies, such as refusing to raise the debt ceiling if a Democratic-led Senate rejects their initiatives.
And we must not forget either the guaranteed Republican desire to launch a host of investigations into the Biden administration, into its management of the pandemic, but also into his son, Hunter Biden. A story of which the conspiracy theorists, who constitute a significant base of the pro-Trump troops, are very fond of.
And then, with the Republican legislative initiative in the House, we will have to expect impeachment proceedings launched by the ideological opponents of the Democratic president. Some representatives have never hidden that this would be the first thing they would do when regaining control of the House.
The midterm elections are taking place in a climate of distrust, intimidation and questioning of the democratic process.
Whether or not there is any basis to accuse Biden of corruption, crime or any other pretext, it seems inevitable. Fair play, some would say, since the Democratic-controlled House has twice impeached Trump. The climate of political polarization being what it is, all of this is obvious.
The resulting trial in the Senate would likely die on the order paper, running out of votes to find the president guilty. This has never happened in the history of the United States.
Scenario Three: Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate. This option remains realistic, as races for the Senate seats that seemed won for the Democrats until recently seem to have changed direction.
Just think of Georgia, where Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee trailing incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, has taken the lead in the latest polls, even with all the business about his past that have surfaced or resurfaced. Other races that were held by Democrats have also potentially lapsed, such as in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Barack Obama was called to the rescue of the Democrats at the end of the campaign to try to mobilize the troops and limit losses in the midterm elections.
If he also loses the Senate, President Biden will, for all intents and purposes, no longer be a lame duck, but a politician completely paralyzed by Congress, at the mercy of a Republican legislative agenda at odds with that of the White House. Which would probably make these next two years the longest and most painful of his career.
An election is always decided thanks to the participation of voters. And if we rely on advance voting, it is massive: around 40 million voters have already voted. How should this mobilization be read in a context of toxic political polarization? Very difficult to know which side will benefit the most. On that, everyone can get out their crystal ball by Tuesday evening.
The Republican Party, which until proven otherwise is still under the influence of Donald Trump, has never hidden in this campaign that it wants to change the rules of the game of elections. There are more than 300 party candidates who have presented themselves as negationists of the results of the 2020 election. certify the results of presidential elections in their state. These candidates from Arizona, Nevada or even Michigan have always said that they would refuse to certify Democratic victories.
Many Republican candidates like Tim Michels in Wisconsin promise that under their leadership their party will always win elections.
Tim Michels, the Republican candidate for governor of Wisconsin, said on an open mic that his party will never lose another election in Wisconsin if it wins. It's up to you to deduce…
What will voters do in the face of this threat to the democratic process? Will Joe Biden's latest campaign efforts, which have made this issue the endgame argument to block Republicans on the doorstep of democratic institutions, bear fruit?
One thing is certain, once these Republican elected negationists of the 2020 election in office, it will be difficult to reverse their blows, the sole purpose of which will be to secure majorities for their party, regardless of the results of the ballot box.
While waiting for these potential upheavals, expect Tuesday evening that the Republican losers of this election will cry fraud…