Analysis | What if Trump wasn't the Republican nominee in 2024?

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Analysis | What if Trump is not the Republican nominee in 2024?

Weary of his methods, Republicans may prefer a less polarizing candidate to beat the Democrats in 2024.

< p class="sc-v64krj-0 knjbxw">Donald Trump is still favored by a large majority of Republican activists, but for how long?

Formerly victorious in the Republican primaries thanks to his effective tactics of contempt and humiliation of his opponents and above all the winner against Hillary Clinton in 2016, Donald Trump is no longer the King Midas of yesteryear who turned everything he touched.

The Republican primaries which are going well this summer demonstrate that Trump has succeeded in defeating candidates from the establishment of the Republican Party by placing his pawns which convey his theory completely wacky 2020 election stolen by massive fraud. The victories of pro-Trump and pro-Big Lie (The Big Lie) candidates have shaken some states this week such as Arizona and Michigan.

But in the states of Georgia, Idaho and the two Carolinas, it's a different story. Trumpist foals have been ousted from the nomination by more moderate and, in some cases, more eligible candidates.

The trend is evident this summer if you look a little Fox News, his once favorite network. Formerly, because for a few months, the network of Rupert Murdoch seems to let go of him little by little. Much rarer are his appearances on the morning show Fox and Friends. He even got angry as his favorite show reported on a poll where his presumed arch-rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, appeared to be winning favor with Republican voters.

Donald Trump may have more potential competitors than he thinks for the Republican nomination.

Cut off from large-scale social networks like Twitter and Facebook, Trump is relegated to his Truth platform, which is a business flop he doesn't believe too much in himself, as he rarely posts statuses there. To convey his words full of half-truths, imaginary figures and the proven lie of the myth of the stolen election, he only has the small far-right networks like OAN, Newsmax or RSBN which are entirely his responsibility and which, little by little, are removed from the lists of channels broadcast by cable companies or Internet platforms.

As for newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post, also owned by Murdoch, recent unflattering editorials for the former president have entrenched the fact that he is no longer doing the job he used to.

Of course, his MAGA disciples who participate in his popular rallies with much smaller crowds than in his presidential era are convinced that their master is full of voters. The only thing he gets is full of money that his generous little donors continue to send him faithfully, filling the coffers of the defeated president in 2020.

By focusing all his efforts on the famous Big Lie of the Stolen Election, Trump is not going after the many Republican voters who are, first, moved on and, second, much more interested in voting for solutions to deal with inflation, reform immigration or reduce the size of government spending.

And then, let's not forget the revelations from the investigation into the January 6, 2021, uprising that increasingly point to Trump's involvement and incitement in this inglorious event in American history. Even if he were not brought to justice, this will not erase the reputational damage in the eyes of some Republicans.

The Big Lie of the stolen election in 2020 cannot be the only theme defended to win the favor of Republican voters, even if Donald Trump has been hitting on this nail for two years.

All this leaves plenty of room for other candidates capable of uniting this populist current of the right, and who moreover would also be able to fight against the left and win the popular vote in 2024. In short, Ron DeSantis is not a long way off and is gradually eating away at market share among the Republican electorate. Where Trump appears to be plateauing in support, the Florida governor still has room to climb in right-wing opinion polls. And he probably won't be the only one in this case.

No wonder in this context that the elephant in the room has become the one that some Republican heavyweights would like to see become a mouse on the eve of the midterm elections.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee talks of disaster if Trump ever announces his candidacy just before this crucial contest for control of Congress. To distract the public from the November election [with a candidacy announcement] would be a huge mistake that could have disastrous consequences, Huckabee said on Fox News.

The leader of the Republican minority in the House, Kevin McCarthy, himself encouraged the former tenant of the White House to delay his nomination contest announcement.

That Trump is a candidate therefore may not guarantee him the presidential nomination. For now, he's dangling it because it allows him to make his supporters salivate and above all to continue to rack up the millions of dollars in funding that he can use as he sees fit as long as he doesn't declare his candidacy.

If ever Trump does get beaten to the post by another 2024 candidate, what about Joe Biden? The chances of him running for a second term are pretty slim. The one who will be 81 years old during the next presidential election is not overflowing with energy and is paying the political price of an inflation that is hurting the wallets of Americans.

President Biden is not unanimous within the Democratic Party for a second presidential bid.

Some elected Democrats suggest that he would have to hand over to someone more combative and, of course, necessarily younger. But, again, difficult for the moment to find the chosen one who would tick all the necessary boxes.

Should we prepare for a duel of 2024 from which competitors are still completely unknown at this point? After all, in a few months in the United States, anything is possible in politics. Even a second Trump candidacy…

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