Apple: iPhone sales are falling, the culprit is well known

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Apple remains undisputedly one of the most successful companies in the world. However, 2024 has been more difficult than expected for the iPhone maker, and the first half of 2025 is shaping up to be just as difficult. Explanations.

Drop in sales and market share

According to a recent report by Counterpoint Research, the iPhone will lose one point of market share worldwide in 2024. Its big rival Samsung is also struggling, while Chinese manufacturers such as Motorola, now a subsidiary of Lenovo, Huawei, and Honor are doing well. The Apple brand also deplores an overall drop in sales of 2%, while the smartphone market is doing rather well and growing by 4%.

According to experts cited by Bloomberg, it is the absence of Apple Intelligence in China that is partly hurting the tech giant. Counterpoint CEO Tarun Pathak comments:

Apple's iPhone 16 lineup has received a mixed response, partly due to the lack of availability of Apple Intelligence at launch. However, Apple has continued to grow strongly in its non-core markets, such as Latin America.

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Difficulties to be expected in 2025 ?

Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities, points out that there is ” no evidence “ that Apple Intelligence will drive hardware upgrades or service revenue. He notes that the feature “did not drive demand for replacement iPhones,” according to sources in the Cupertino company's supply chain. He adds: “The appeal of this tool has declined significantly compared to cloud-based AI services, which have grown rapidly in the following months.”.

For this new year, the expert is also rather pessimistic for the apple brand: “Apple has taken a cautious stance in discussions with its major suppliers about iPhone production plans for 2025.”.

Thus, despite the launch of the highly anticipated iPhone SE 4, the tech giant's smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 6% in the first quarter year-on-year, according to him. And for good reason, it is not expected to support eSIM, a very popular feature in the Chinese market.

To put this observation, which seems quite damning for Apple, into perspective, Ming-Chi Kuo is counting on sales of between 220 and 225 million for this year. It is certainly “below the market consensus”, but it is nonetheless spectacular.

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