The global fleet, all manufacturers combined, is expected to reach 47,080 aircraft in 2041.
The COVID-19 pandemic has not tempered the growing appetite for air travel, and the number of aircraft worldwide is expected to soar 82% over the next 20 years, Boeing estimates Sunday.
The world fleet, all manufacturers combined, should reach 47,080 aircraft in 2041, compared to 25,900 in 2019, details the group in an annual report released on the eve of the x27;Opening of Farnborough Airshow, UK.
This is slightly less than the 49,405 planes in 2040 predicted last year, as Boeing revised down its forecast for annual global economic growth (+2.6% instead of +2, 7% on average). This should result in lower than expected growth in passenger traffic (+3.8% instead of +4%).
On the other hand, it is a little more than the latest forecasts from Airbus, unveiled on Monday, which estimates that the world fleet will reach 46,930 aircraft in 2041 against 22,880 aircraft in service in 2020.
Boeing is now counting on the delivery, all manufacturers combined, of 42,710 new aircraft in the next twenty years (41,170 without counting the Russian market, which is very uncertain), i.e. 900 less than in its L& #x27;last year.
In 2022, demand is no longer the main obstacle (to the growth of the aviation market) since people can travel again, Darren Hulst, head of commercial marketing at Boeing, pointed out during a briefing. with journalists. That's the supply, with all the supply chain issues and staffing shortages.
Already, the world's single-aisle fleet, rather used for domestic traffic, is back to 98% of what it was before the pandemic. Those of jumbo jets, intended for international travel, are at 78%. But the dynamics are changing rapidly.
The resumption of domestic air traffic, for example, is currently being hampered in China by health restrictions.
The rebound in international flights, on the other hand, is faster than initially expected.
With the explosion of e-commerce, the trend is still accelerating for aircraft transporting goods: Boeing predicts that the fleet of cargo planes will grow by 80% x27;here 2041.
Every year, the manufacturer takes a little more into account new constraints in terms of sustainable development such as the price of sustainable aviation fuel or ;Possible new carbon taxes, also underlined Darren Hulst. How much will these measures really affect the market? This still remains largely unknown, he suggested.
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