Bolivia plunges into chaos amid power struggles

Margarita Avila, a 66-year-old grocer, stares stoically at the closed stalls surrounding her at a market in La Paz, the capital of a country in crisis. “We had good years,” she recalls, before adding bitterly, “but now they're fighting among themselves.”

For more than a year, former president Evo Morales has been in open conflict with his former minister Luis Arce, who has been leading the country of 11 million people since 2020.

Although they both belong to the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), they are engaged in a fierce struggle for power.

“We are facing a multiple crisis (…) the political crisis, probably the most important, has exacerbated all the others,” observes Daniel Valverde, professor of political science at the Gabriel René Moreno University of Santa Cruz.

Stalls at the Mercado Lanza in La Paz, November 20, 2024 in Bolivia © AFP – AIZAR RALDES

The rivalry between the current and former heads of state, aggravated by a lack of dollars that leads to a fuel shortage, fuels a climate of generalized protest and accentuates the discredit towards the authorities and institutions.

“We no longer have dollars to save. Everything is used on a day-to-day basis,” testifies Margarita Avila in front of piles of unsold products. “Overnight, prices go up. And since they're fighting among themselves, they don't care about us anymore,” she laments.

“Our pots are empty,” lamented Irma Callizaya, a 62-year-old artisan, among the thousands of protesters who marched through central La Paz on Thursday to urge the government to act.

Photo released by Radio Kawsachun Coca (RKC) of former President Evo Morales addressing his supporters in Lauca Ñ, Chapare region, on November 22, 2024 in Bolivia © Kawsachun Coca – AIZAR RALDES

It is in this context that Evo Morales, the country's first indigenous president (2006-2019), seeks to return to power, accusing his successor Luis Arce of maneuvering to oust him from the race for the presidential election scheduled for August 2025.

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In early November, the Constitutional Court upheld the ban on a president serving more than two terms, seemingly ending any chance for Evo Morales to run again. Except…

– “Instrumentalization” –

In 2011, Bolivia became the first country in the world to hold popular elections to elect judges to its higher courts, arguing that they would be more impartial. However, 60% of voters voted null, expressing their distrust of the system.

Protest against fuel and dollar shortages in La Paz, Bolivia, on November 21, 2024 © AFP – AIZAR RALDES

In Mexico, a reform project proposes to elect all judges by popular vote. Its opponents cry out that it threatens the independence of the judiciary.

Judicial elections are scheduled in Bolivia for December 15, and a new composition of the judges of the Constitutional Court could lead to a revision of the ruling barring Mr. Morales from running in the presidential election.

The fact that Parliament pre-selects candidates could favor “partisan interests,” Gustavo Flores-Macias, a researcher at Cornell University in the United States, told AFP.

“It's the Bolivian political culture, in which institutions are subordinated to political interests,” said Ana Lucia Velasco, a political scientist specializing in the study of polarization in Bolivia.

“What is new is that some institutions now respond to the interests of one faction of the MAS, while others obey those of the other party,” she adds.

According to the World Justice Project's global rule of law ranking, Bolivia ranks 131st out of 142 countries studied in terms of law enforcement.

Another sign of the instrumentalization of Bolivian justice is the many twists and turns in the investigation targeting Mr. Morales for the alleged rape of a minor during his term.

Riot police fire tear gas during clashes with supporters of former President Evo Morales in Parotani, Cochabamba department, on November 1, 2024 in Bolivia © AFP – FERNANDO CARTAGENA

After the cancellation of a first arrest warrant, a new one was announced but never materialized. Last week, the prosecutor's office claimed to have “numerous clues”, without revealing their nature, promising a “surprise” to come…

For Daniel Valverde, the way the case is being handled illustrates “the instrumentalization of justice”. According to him, “more than pursuing or arresting him, they are trying to expose him to reinforce the rejection of him. And they are succeeding”.

The case, however, led supporters of Mr. Morales, a former llama shepherd, to block the country's main roads between October and November, further aggravating the crisis. Inflation has soared and the fuel shortage has worsened.

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