Brazil: Lula win in first round possible according to polls

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Brazil: a victory for Lula in the first round is possible according to the polls

Lula (Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva) addresses his supporters at a rally seven days before the vote.

A week before the presidential election, Brazil is entering the home stretch of an ultra-polarized electoral campaign that boils down to a merciless duel between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, whose election in the first round seems possible.

If 11 candidates line up at the start, it is the fight between the former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (47% of voting intentions according to the latest Datafolha poll) and the president of x27;far-right Jair Bolsonaro (33%) grabbing attention.

We need to talk to the undecided and those considering not going to vote, Lula said during a Sunday rally with thousands of supporters at the Portela samba school in Rio.

It is with consistency that the polls have for months granted a third mandate to lead the first power in Latin America to Lula, president from 2003 to 2010 and leader of the Workers' Party.

< p class="e-p">Lula's government was very good: my children were able to graduate from university, I was able to buy a car myself. I want him back because I want everything to go back to how it was, Sandra Chaves, a 60-year-old woman of color who came to hear Lula, told AFP.

The former steelworker had left power with stratospheric approval rates (87%), before experiencing disgrace in prison for corruption (2018-2019) and being prevented from representing himself.

His election, at age 76, would mark a remarkable comeback.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010.

Polls say there is a real possibility that Lula will win in the first round on October 2, notes Fernanda Magnotta, an analyst at the FAAP foundation in Sao Paulo.

Lula could benefit from the useful vote if the voters of less competitive candidates such as Ciro Gomes migrate to him, she explains, about the center-left candidate, third in the polls (7%) ahead of Simone Tebet (center-right, 5 %).

The useful vote, which is much talked about, has become the dominant theme of Lula's campaign.

For his part, Jair Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, assured Friday during x27;a rally in Minas Gerais (southeast): we will win in the first round.

God willing, we will win in the first round, he said repeated on social media.

“The other side doesn't bring the people together in the street, how would they win in the first round? It seems difficult to me… no: impossible. Period. »

— Jair Bolsonaro, outgoing President of Brazil

According to polls, Jair Bolsonaro arrives behind Lula in intentions voting rights for the presidential election.

On Telegram, Bolsonarist networks are campaigning to explain that if their leader is not elected on October 2, it is because the election will have been fraudulent.

Fear of a Brazilian version of the Capitol assault is on everyone's mind.

It can be dangerous, says Ms. Magnotta, Bolsonaro is going very probably invoke electoral fraud, like Donald Trump, this will galvanize his supporters.

Because the ex-army captain can count on battalions of supporters ready for anything. He himself has several times violently attacked the institutions of the young Brazilian democracy, such as the Supreme Court, and led a virulent campaign against electronic ballot boxes, which he believes encourage fraud.

But suddenly lowering his tone, this unpredictable president also declared that if he lost, he would retire from politics.

It is therefore impossible to predict the sequence of events on the evening of the first round.

Some 53% of Brazilians say the economic situation will be decisive in their choice on October 2.

The campaign of Bolsonaro and Lula was marked more by personal attacks – thief, incompetent – ​​than by the presentation of programs.

The candidates crisscrossed the gigantic Brazil and held countless rallies in bulletproof vests.

The theme of the environment and the climate, in this country sheltering the #x27;Amazonia, has fallen by the wayside, unlike hunger, inflation or corruption, concerns of the majority of the 214 million Brazilians.

To cast a wide net, Lula tried to seduce the evangelicals who constitute the base of Jair Bolsonaro's electorate with the agricultural trade and pro-weapons.

He is ;is also chosen as running mate the very moderate ex-governor of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, of the center right, in order to reassure the markets which view his election with apprehension.

Mr. Bolsonaro, for his part, is trying unsuccessfully to seduce a female electorate who mostly shun him for his sexist remarks and have plowed the Nordeste, Lula's stronghold, without much effect either, according to polls.

False information is surging like never before on social networks. They are also widely relayed by the presidential candidates themselves, on television, and even on the UN platform last Tuesday by Jair Bolsonaro.

The week which opens will see the sworn enemies throw their last forces into battle, with big rallies and, on Thursday, a highly anticipated TV debate, where, unlike Saturday, Lula is expected to be present.

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