Chad and Senegal: Paris stumbles again in its military “reorganization” in Africa

By announcing, à a few hours apart, the departure of French soldiers from their soil, Senegal and Chad have formalized a “reorganization” quot; that Paris had been preparing for a long time. But the form is catastrophic and, once again, benefits from Russian influence.

On Thursday, these two historic partners expressed their desire to see the French army not reduce its presence on their respective territories, but rather leave the area.

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye told AFP that his country's “sovereignty” did not “accommodate” the presence of military bases, calling for a “stripped-down partnership” with French soldiers.

Shortly afterwards, when Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot had just left N'Djamena as part of an African tour, his Chadian counterpart Abderaman Koulamallah announced that he was “terminating the defense cooperation agreement” signed with Paris.

After the forced departure in recent years of French soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso and then Niger, where hostile juntas had settled, Chad was the last Sahelian country still to shelter them.

These two statements come as President Emmanuel Macron's envoy to Africa, Jean-Marie Bockel, submitted his report on Monday on the reconfiguration of the French military presence in Africa, advocating a “renewed” and “co-constructed” partnership.

– “The French are burying their heads in the sand” –

The report “recommended a drastic reduction in presence. This is not necessarily what was initially requested by the partners. But since the decisions were moving in this direction, they preferred to announce that the decision was theirs,” Elie Tenenbaum of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) commented to AFP.

The Chadian authorities are not satisfied “because the recommendations (of Jean-Marie Bockel, editor's note) do not take into account their expectations”, judges Yamingué Bétinbaye, doctor in political geography at the University of N'Djamena.

“Once again, the Africans have advanced faster than the French”, adds Elie Tenenbaum. In doing so, they are offering Russia, which is in the midst of a surge of influence on the continent, a nice gift.

“Both Chad and Senegal have tightened trade with Moscow in recent months. If Russia has no major interests in these countries, this is a good way for it to strike a blow at the French.”

An analysis that recalls the statements made to AFP last week by the Chadian opponent Succès Masra. “There are many people in the presidency who are openly pro-Russian. Wagner is already there,” he assured, referring to the Russian mercenaries in Africa from the group of the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, now grouped together within the Africa Corps.

Chadian leaders “can oust the French at any time, but everyone pretends that it doesn't exist. The French themselves are burying their heads in the sand,” he said, noting that a month before the country's first legislative elections since 2015, the announcement could help Mr. Deby “win back popular opinion.”

In fact, Paris seemed caught off guard. Neither the Elysée, the Quai d'Orsay, nor the Ministry of the Armed Forces had made any comments by midday. And the timing of the Chadian announcement, shortly after Jean-Noël Barrot's takeoff, is disastrous, leaving his entourage clearly disconcerted on Friday.

– “A slap in the face” –

In a supreme irony, the Elysée announced in early October that the French president and his Chadian counterpart, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, had agreed to “strengthen bilateral cooperation.”

For Wolfram Lacher, from the German think tank SWP, “this is a page that is turning” for the former colonial power “after years of military support and while France has repeatedly saved the power” of the father of the Chadian leader, Idriss Déby.

“This is a surprise (…), there was no need for Déby to take this step. He had a comfortable position with Paris.” And now, he “will need other external support to ensure the security of his regime”, even if he could “avoid a relationship of dependency with Moscow” by diversifying his support.

The sequence refers to France's inability to get out of the impasse and the opprobrium of African opinions, even since Paris announced in 2022 the end of the anti-jihadist operation Barkhane in the Sahel.

In January, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Thierry Burkhard admitted that the French “military apparatus” produced “in particular in the field of perceptions negative effects that end up weighing more heavily than the positive effects”.

And added: “It is imperative that we take the trouble to let partner countries sovereigns communicate on their actions”.

This is done for two more of them. “We can describe it as a slap in the face”, says Wolfram Lacher. “In 24 hours, Senegal and Chad… It shows the failure of French policy in Africa”.

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