COVID-19: the risk index in the Atlantic is the highest in the country

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COVID-19: the risk index in the Atlantic is the highest in the country

A woman administers a dose of vaccine to an elderly person.

Data from a research group led by Public Health Canada reveals that three of the four Atlantic provinces have the highest “risk index” for COVID-19 in the country .

The research risk index is calculated based on four criteria: vaccine protection, infections and spread, impact of COVID-19 on the healthcare system provincial health and mortality.

As soon as the calculation for a province exceeds the score of 2.04, the risk index is considered high. It becomes very high from 2.50, extremely high from 3.50 and severe from 4.50.

COVID-19 in Canada Index

Province Province COVID-19 Index COVID-19 Index

Alberta

1.47

Manitoba

1.55

Saskatchewan

1.60

Ontario

1.92

British Columbia

2.07

Prince Edward Island

2.21

Quebec

2.43

Nova Scotia

2.71

New Brunswick

2.95

Newfoundland and Labrador

2.98

Canada

2.04

Source: COVID-19 Resources Canada

With its score of 2.98, Newfoundland and Labrador is at the top of the Canadian rankings. New Brunswick is not far behind, with a score of 2.95. Nova Scotia is listed third in the country, with a score of 2.71.

Alberta is the only Canadian province with a moderate level risk index with a score of 1.47; all others are at the high level, with scores ranging from 1.55 to 2.43.

Prince Edward Island, the province of x27;Atlantic, which is doing the best in the ranking, has a score of 2.21.

In New Brunswick, it is estimated that approximately 1700 people per day contract the variant Omicron for the first time, dated July 9.

This number translates to 213 infections per 100,000 people, which is two and a half times the national average of 87.

Tara Moriarty, a professor at the University of Toronto who specializes in infectious disease research, thinks the number of people who contract the Omicron variant in New Brunswick is likely even higher.

If you take into account those who contract the virus for the second time, you can add another 30% and the weekly toll would be more like 2,210 new cases per day, she estimates.

Tara Moriarty's research data indicates that 54% of the population of New Brunswick have been infected at least once by the Omicron variant. The national average is 49%.

According to his calculations, Tara Moriarty predicts that the province could in the coming weeks register 17 hospitalizations per day related to COVID-19, including one in intensive care.

Public Health has so far listed 429 deaths related to COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic in New Brunswick, including 290 associated with the Omicron wave.

Ms. Moriarty, for her part, suggests that 488 New Brunswickers have died from the Omicron variant, which far exceeds the data provided by the province.

She also estimates that the hospitalizations linked to the Omicron variant would have cost the New Brunswick government $99 million to date.

Public Health did not respond to a CBC request for comment on the province's risk index and Tara Moriarty's comments. An update will be available from New Brunswick Public Health on Tuesday.

The scenario is relatively similar in Newfoundland and Labrador, says Ms. Moriarty.

In Newfoundland, the positivity rate is increasing very rapidly. This could be related to the BA.5 variant, which is emerging in the province as well as across the country, she said.

There are reportedly 1,400 new infections a day in the province, plus a significant number of people contracting the virus for the second time.

The number of reported infections is decreasing in the province, but due to the lack of access to screening tests, it is difficult to have a clear picture of the situation. Wastewater analyzes show an increase in the presence of the virus in the population.

On July 6, eight people were hospitalized and one person was in intensive care. An update is expected on Wednesday.

With information from CBC

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