In recent weeks, the official figures of the pandemic in the country exhibited a significant drop of the amount of contagions and the occupation of beds of intensive care. However, the decline in the number of deaths occurs at a rate slower and it appears to have entered a high plateau.
A meeting of the weekly peaks of each indicator serves to graph the scenario. The maximum of the average of daily positives was registered on May 23: was 33,171, and today it is at 13,742. The UTI occupancy cap It was June 14: from 7969 dropped to 4583. The peak of the mean deaths daily was June 11: at that time It was 603, and today it is 370.
The advance of vaccination affects the rates of infections and hospitalizations, but not so much in that of deaths, contrary to the experience of other countries that are climbing steps in the immunization of their population.
“What fell the most was the number of daily infections, then the number of intensive care units, and that of the dead was the one that decreased the least “, synthesizes Jorge Geffner, Immunologist of the COVID unit of Conicet.
“I believe that in the coming weeks the decrease in the number will be accentuated. It will not be two months from now: it has to be given before. Basically, because those who die go through intensive therapy and there are fewer people in therapy, ”he continues.
In the same direction, one of the experts summoned by the national government to draw up guidelines regarding the vaccine combination, maintains: “Here it goes down slower than what is usually seen elsewhere, but it also happens that a very important fraction of the internees have a very long stay. More than a month, a month and a half. The average age in therapy is no longer more than 70 years: they are younger people and with more rest to fight it ”. And he concludes: “I believe that in the coming weeks we are going to see a significant decrease, below 300 deaths on average “.
In dialogue with TN.com.ar, Barbara Broese, Head of Epidemiology at the Central Hospital of San Isidro, says: “Today we had six free beds in ICU, something that had not happened in a long time., and in the whole municipality it is going down ”. However, he remarks: “There are still many deaths that come from the therapies from the Interior and there are loading delays. In many cases they are uploaded from the establishment, and in others from the jurisdictional level once the death certificates arrive. In the next few weeks, the number should go down “.
The specialist warns about the influence of a low percentage of a complete immunization schedule. “Vaccination with one dose has advanced a lot, but we have 12% of vaccinated with two doses. It is still a low number. And there is a significant number of people who die despite having a dose “, he maintains.
Luis Cámera, one of the infectious disease specialists who is part of the Casa Rosada advisory committee, adds: “There is a delay in uploading data. Assuming there are 400 deceased, it is very possible that 30 or 40 are from the previous day. The vast majority corresponds to days ago, and eventually weeks ago ”. And he ends: “At this point we should have between 250 and 300 deaths per day.
The number of occupations in intensive care dropped at a faster rate than that of deaths. (Photo: AP)
Mario Lozano placeholder image, molecular virologist, gives a similar definition: “It is difficult to calculate today’s real deaths due to the delay in loading data, and because in a few days some who died today will join, but extrapolating the curves from 10, 15 days ago we should be in about 300 newspapers “.
Carlos Di Pietrantonio, epidemiologist and member of the advisory council of TN, observes: “What we see today are numbers that are redistributing from high figures at another time. To give an example, on July 14 there were 614 deaths and on July 15, a day later, there were 455. No relationship. To a large extent they are figures that have remained in the debit and what is done is a balance ”. And he ends: “Within one to two weeks, the number is going to stabilize.”