From collapse to civil war: the professor described the future of the Russian Federation after the defeat in Ukraine

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From collapse to civil war: professor described the future of the Russian Federation after the defeat in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin, as American University professor Alexander Motyl warns, is ready for anything, and the West needs to calculate further actions, since 5 to 20 new independent states may arise in Russia's place.

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Russia is unable to win a full-scale war against Ukraine, and a defeat can lead not only to the disintegration of the country, but also to provoke civil conflicts between the subjects of the federation. Alexander Motyl, professor of political science at Ratgar University, USA, spoke about this in an interview with TSN.

According to him, in the early days of a full-scale invasion, no one could have imagined that Russia could disappear from the political map of the world. 11 months of war showed the true potential of the Russian Armed Forces and proved that Ukraine can win an armed conflict.

Moreover, as Motyl notes, a series of military failures automatically deprived the invaders of the status of the largest army in the world. Against the background of the fact that Russia is unable to win a full-scale war, Western countries should consider a possible scenario for the collapse of the Russian Federation.

“Russia can fall apart, which can lead to a civil war, or even a war between different parts of Russia. I am personally convinced that this is not only possible, but also very plausible. This is no longer just a fantasy that could, under certain circumstances, come true It becomes more and more real every day,” the professor continued and added that the West should calculate further actions, since from 5 to 20 new independent states could appear in the place of Russia.

In communication with journalists, Motyl cited the example of the early 90s, when Western countries were wary of the possible collapse of the USSR. The then US President George W. Bush, speaking in the Verkhovna Rada, argued that Ukrainians supposedly should not engage in nationalism, and a few months later the Soviet Union disappeared from the world map.

Motyl has no doubt that the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin will hold on to his power to the last, not sparing “to waste” his own people, as he does during the war in Ukraine.

“So there are different options here (with the collapse of Russia – ed.), which can be very unpleasant for everyone, not only for Russians, Ukrainians, but also for the United States and the whole world. Therefore, you need to think about it and somehow prepare. According to at least so that we are not taken by surprise by this. Or maybe we need to speed up this process. But this is another difficult issue, because it means undermining Putin's very power, “the professor summed up in an interview with TSN.

A similar forecast about the possible collapse of Russia on January 11 was published by The Financial Times. The author of the article, Casey Michel, came to the conclusion that the Russian Federation could disappear from the political map of the world amid a series of military failures in Ukraine and a wave of discontent shown by national minorities within the federation.

A few days earlier, the Atlantic Council analytical center published the results survey of global strategists regarding the future of the Russian Federation. Almost every second expert predicts that in the next decade Russia will become a “failed state” or break up into several parts.