On Tuesday, 3 December, the Danish investment Bank Saxo Bank published the “shocking forecasts” for the year 2020. It has become a tradition. Bank analysts call their predictions “unlikely events that can have a huge impact on markets.” The official market predictions they do not belong. However “shocking forecasts” for the last several years are of permanent interest.
In the presidential election in the US in 2020 Donald trump will lose. The victory of the Democratic candidate. And it won’t be Joe Biden. The new President of the United States for the first time in history would be women. We are talking about Elizabeth Warren. She’s really been running. Saxo Bank believes that its main trump card will be the promise to enter the country’s universal free health care. But not only will it prevent the Trump to retain power for another term. Hillary Clinton lost the election in 2016, because he was a representative of the American political establishment. And ordinary people did not trust her. It caused them irritation. Trump received due to this massive difference. However, over the four years in power, he has caused sharp aversion of the colored population of America.
Another shocking forecast for Europe. The policy chosen by the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban, often criticized and tougher OS the EU. But he is not paying attention. The limitations imposed by Orban, affect already judges, human rights activists, scientists, media. The Prime Minister will be impossible to negotiate with Brussels. Hungary will start to impose sanctions. In the end, Orban will take steps to withdraw the country from the EU. However, he will Balk at the example of great Britain.
Renewable, or “green” energy in 2020 faced with the consequences of the low profitability of the investment. The production of shale oil and gas will become completely unprofitable. Besides the ecologists themselves will prove its danger. OPEC, taking advantage of the situation, reduce oil production, causing a temporary shortage. The price of mark Brent will rise to $ 90 per barrel. It will be on hand not only to OPEC but also Russia. Its oil will be actively buying in the Asian countries.
Another impetus to the Russian economy will give the growing popularity of electric vehicles. Their production requires palladium and Nickel. Russia is the main supplier of these metals on the world market.
Dollar the strongest blow will cause the Asian infrastructure investment Bank. He will launch a new reserve asset — the “Asian drawing rights” (Asian Drawing Right, the ADR). It will work on the principle of the blockchain. One ADR is equal to two USD. Asian economies, followed by Russia and OPEC countries will switch to calculations in ADR. This will reduce significantly the role of the dollar in the world economy. The American currency a few months will weaken relative to ADR by 20% relative to gold — 30%.
Hard times await developers of artificial intelligence. Investors are rapidly losing interest in these technologies, which require multibillion-dollar investments, but do not increase profit. To continue research in this direction can only large corporations like Facebook, Google and Microsoft.
In December 2018 Saxo Bank guessed with only one shocking prediction. Theresa may has failed to make Brexit 29 March 2019. In the UK, has appointed early parliamentary elections. They really will be held December 12. Danish Bank predicted a labour victory and their leader Jeremy Corbin. Let’s see the wait is long.
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