Is a revolution coming? Moods in the Russian elites

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Is there a revolution coming? Russian elite sentiment

talk about a possible change of leadership like never before in more than 20 years of dictator Vladimir Putin's rule, according to The Washington Post.

Is a rebellion or a palace coup coming in Russia? How many similar messages have already been in the media. Now, citing sources, The Washington Post writes about such trends. At the same time, the publication immediately clarifies that no one can say how and when this can happen.

A revolutionary situation

High-ranking sources in power and business representatives – the elites are devastated and suppressed, the journalists say. They expect the political and economic climate to worsen.

“We began to enter into a revolutionary situation. Everyone is waiting for something different than what is happening now: a different leadership, a different war. The hawks want tougher action. Pigeons don't want war at all. It is time for a change in the political system. But how this will happen, I don’t know, ”said the source of the publication.

Economists and business owners note that the sanctions are beginning to hit the Russian economy harder: budget cuts have already begun, another blow will be the price ceiling for Russian oil. Against this background, every bad news from the frontline war against Ukraine becomes a new blow to the Russian economy, the source said.

“The whole business is suffering from what is happening. Everyone froze their investment plans,” he said.

Nno one will help

The earlier notion that Russia could redirect trade from the West through China, Kazakhstan and India was quickly dispelled, two other sources said. Kazakhstan started blocking shipments of European goods to Russia, and the Chinese also started to stop some deliveries.

“Everyone is completely upset. The mood is very bad,” said a third senior Russian businessman.

The effect of Putin’s escalation in Ukraine (massive missile strikes), which is able to suppress dissatisfaction with the retreat of the Russian military, is unlikely to be long-term, officials and businessmen believe.< /p>

Army Trouble

“There are other problems on the battlefield… I don’t think this will take the pressure off,” a Moscow businessman said, referring to the missile attacks on Ukraine.

One of the newspaper’s interlocutors in power believes that Russia may not have enough missiles for a long military campaign. They are being produced, but we are talking about units of new missiles. And the old reserves are running out, the official says.

“It is clear that a military or political victory is impossible. But losing is also impossible. It turns into a chess situation known as zugzwang, where each step is worse than the next, and it is impossible not to move,” the newspaper source said.

The Russian official says the optimism of the summer, when many in the country’s elite believed that “we will turn everything upside down and find a way out” has completely evaporated: “People see that there is no future.”

Forced mobilization has already dealt a blow to Putin’s popularity, and when the corpses of reservists begin to return from the front, the situation may worsen, considers a Moscow businessman.

“In a few months, there will be very negative dynamics in Russia: a deterioration in public sentiment,” he said.

At the same time, few people in Moscow believe that Putin will resort to a tactical nuclear strike. After all, in this case, “he will have no cards left”, and China can block it, he believes: “This Pandora’s box (Chinese) does not want to open.”

Huge losses

The irretrievable losses of the Russian army in Ukraine may amount to more than 90 thousand people, according to the Russian resource Important Stories, citing two sources in the special services of the Russian Federation.

Information about 90 thousand Russians who are no longer will be able to participate in hostilities, a former officer of the Russian special services and an active officer of the FSB told the resource.

It is clarified that irretrievable losses include those killed, missing, who died from wounds in hospitals, as well as the wounded who cannot return to military service. Such data approximately agree with the assessments of Ukraine and the West.