Lula is close to victory in the first round, according to a latest poll

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  • According to the consulting firm Datafolha, the Workers' Party candidate has a 50% voting intention

  • It remains to be seen whether the debate television with Jair Bolsonaro increases or reduces his chances of avoiding the second turn

Lula is close to victory in the first round, according to a latest poll

Three days before the elections, the latest poll released in Brazil reinforces the hopes of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of imposing himself in the first round. According to Datafolha, the candidate of the Partido de l (PT) would obtain 50% of the valid votes, 14 points more than Jair Bolsonaro. The great unknown on Thursday night is whether the television debate between the contenders, marked by tension and confrontation, could alter the preferences of the citizens. Nearly 85% of those eligible to vote already know who they will elect on Sunday.

More than debate, what happened strictly speaking in the studios of the television station O Globoit looked like to a cockfight. “It's crazy for a president to come here and say what he says with such aplomb,” he complained. Lula on the cataract of fake news of the retired captain. “It bothers me to ask all the time for the right of reply“.

Bolsonaro defended his management to the letter. He even exalted its much questioned environmental policy. “The people love me, and the field will vote for me again,” she said, when asked. on deforestation in the Amazon. “Liar, ex-prisoner and traitor to the country“, he snapped at his rival. “We cannot return to a phase where there was a kleptocracy”. He also remarked that during his mandate “there was no act of corruption”. According to the newspaper Folhaof São Paulo, the president activated He went into “cabinet of hate” mode during his television appearance. But such belligerence, he suggested, could have “collateral results” not very beneficial.

Lula's response

Lula did not take long to answer. in replying: “it's a lie to say that I set up a criminal organization. Instead of saying that, he should talk about the diversion of funds of which his children are accused, about the robberies in his Ministry of Education, about the mafia that tried to steal money from him. The PT leader claimed his two presidential terms (2003-11): “The poor had a 30% increase in your income, 22 million jobs were created, increased the minimum wage by 77%. It was the country with the greatest social inclusion in the country's history.”

Ciro Gomes, a former minister of Lula, third in the polls with 6%, dedicated himself to much of the debate to attack the favorite of these elections. “He didn't want to learn anything from the bitter lessons he received,” he said of the PT's 13-year government.

The factor of the undecided

Although the latest polls give Lula a great chance of avoiding a second election, at the end of October, the polls could throw up surprises if the electoral turnout is lower than expected. In the 2018 elections that gave Bolsonaro victory, 20% of eligible voters did not show up. to defray In the municipal elections of 2020, the abstention reached 23%. Of the 156 million people considered eligible to vote this year, 24% have not yet completed the biometric registration through which the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) collects signatures, photos and fingerprints of citizens.

“Bolsonaro risks ending Sunday eating cold pizza. A victory for Lula in the first round is at the finish line. The imponderable of the undecided at the last minute, the abstentions and the null votes could “They would tip the scales to either side, by a small difference. Who knows, it may rain too much or there may be no buses for people to vote,” he said. Vinicius Torres Freire, columnist for Folha. The great fear on the eve of the elections is related to the spread of fake news by the Bolsonarist factories that have put the transparency of the elections under suspicion.

In this context, the far-right candidate received An unexpected gift: the support of Neymar through TikTok, where he has more than eight million followers. Bolsonaro did not delay. in uploading it to his own Twitter account, where the star of the selected one mimics the music of the retired captain's campaign: “vote, vote and confirm: 22, it's Bolsonaro,” asks the a song alluding to the number that must be marked in the electronic ballot box that has been questioned so much by the candidate for re-election.