Millions of Arctic photos sifted through AI reveal disturbing truth

© Johannes Plenio/Pexels

The Arctic has just revealed new secrets to us through the prism of technology. Far to the north of our planet, the Svalbard archipelago (Norway) is suffering from climate change, and the situation there is catastrophic. Since 1985, this region, the northernmost of Norway, has seen its ice cover disappear over an area equivalent to that of New York. A chilling reality (no pun intended), revealed by a study published on January 15 in the journal Nature Communications.

To reach these conclusions, the researchers behind this paper observed these changes using artificial intelligence. Using this technology applied to millions of satellite images, they have managed to go back four decades of glacial evolution.

Algorithms unravel the mysteries of the ice pack

The scientists in charge of this research developed algorithms specially designed to analyze satellite images captured between 1985 and 2023. A method that is much faster and more efficient than those used in glaciological analysis. Indeed, traditional mapping techniques reduced to a real ant-like task: scientists had to laboriously examine each image individually, a process that was not only time-consuming, but also subject to variations in interpretation between observers.

This automation made it possible to analyze 149 maritime glaciers (mass of ice that extends from a land area to an ocean, sea or fjord), guaranteeing an overall view of their evolution. Artificial intelligence has excelled in identifying glacial fronts, the critical areas where ice meets the ocean. It has made it possible to precisely map the changes in their geometry over the seasons and years.

An archetype of global warming

The data collected paint; unsurprisingly, unfortunately; an alarming picture of the situation in the Arctic continent. Since 1979, this region has warmed four times faster than the global average, a trend that is particularly accentuated in Svalbard, where warming is reaching an intensity up to seven times higher than the rest of the globe!

This polar amplification is mainly reflected in the radical transformation of the Arctic glacial landscape. Data analysis reveals a clear conclusion: 91% of the glacial masses studied are experiencing a retreat of their fronts. This phenomenon is not limited to a few isolated glaciers, but constitutes a general trend across the archipelago.

Satellite observations highlight a structural modification of the cryosphere (areas of the planet where water is frozen), where glacial fronts, once stable, are now experiencing successive retreats. This retreat dynamic is part of a broader destabilization process, where increasing temperatures trigger chain reactions. Ice is melting faster, ice fronts are becoming more unstable, and calving (the process by which blocks of ice break off from the glacier) is intensifying, creating a vicious cycle that is accelerating the disappearance of the ice.

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The total loss of glacial surface since 1985 exceeds 800 km², with an annual average of 24 km². These already considerable figures mask a recent acceleration of the phenomenon. Svalbard's glaciers play a fundamental ecological role, acting as natural pumps in the fjords they feed. They facilitate the transfer of nutrients from the depths to the ocean surface and strongly influence water circulation patterns, thus creating unique but also very fragile ecosystems.

Svalbard: a warning for the future of our planet

In Svalbard, 62% of glaciers follow a complex seasonal cycle of retreat and advance. These oscillations, which can reach several hundred meters, sometimes exceed the interannual variations in amplitude. While this type of behavior was well documented in Greenland, its prevalence in Svalbard had never been established with such certainty.

In 2016, calving rates experienced a dramatic doubling in response to periods of extreme heat. That year, the archipelago recorded its wettest summer and autumn since 1955, with a record 42 mm of precipitation falling in a single day in October. These exceptional conditions, combined with abnormally high temperatures and an unusually ice-free sea, accelerated glacial disintegration.

The unique geographical position of this archipelago, at the interface of Arctic waters and warm Atlantic currents, makes it a veritable natural observatory of climate extremes. Researchers have established a direct correlation between the spring warming of ocean waters and the immediate retreat of glaciers, demonstrating the extreme sensitivity of these formations to marine thermal variations.

These observations are of capital importance, because they potentially foreshadow the fate of other Arctic regions, notably Greenland, which is home to the largest ice mass in the northern hemisphere. It contains enough fresh water to raise the ocean level by several meters if it were to melt completely.

While the complete melting of Svalbard's glaciers would cause sea levels to rise by only 1.7 centimetres, their sensitivity to even the slightest temperature changes is a clear warning: the entire Arctic glacial system has never been more vulnerable. The millions of people living in coastal areas around the world could suffer the consequences, and they would be dramatic. Flooding, coastal erosion, salinisation of soils and fresh water, the list goes on. For the moment, there is no indication that this dynamic will reverse in the coming decades; in fact, it is rather the opposite.

• An artificial intelligence analysis has revealed massive glacial melting in Svalbard since 1985, exacerbated by global warming.
• The archipelago's glaciers play a key role in marine ecosystems, but their accelerated retreat is disrupting these fragile environments.
• These observations are proof of the fragility of the Arctic glacial system and its direct implications for sea level rise and coastal areas.

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