Motions of censure: PS ready to grant François Bayrou a reprieve, New Popular Front on the verge of implosion

The Prime Minister has activated article 49.3 on the budget and that of Social Security. But the party with the rose will not vote for the fall of the government, brightening the horizon of the tenant of Matignon and threatening the survival of the New Popular Front.

On Monday, François Bayrou committed his government to the 2025 finance bill (PLF) and the bill relating to Social Security (PLFSS), triggering at this stage three motions of censure from the left. They should not be fatal to it in view of the current balances.

“We are now at the moment of truth. No country can live without a budget”, justified the Prime Minister, by deciding to adopt without a vote the text resulting from the work of the Joint Committee (CMP), which Matignon did not modify.

“Is this budget perfect? ​​? No. But it is a balance. We are all together now before our duty”,argued François Bayrou at the podium of the National Assembly.

“The right direction”

An hour later, the Prime Minister again committed his government to responsibility for the first part of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS).

By using Article 49.3 of the Constitution twice, François Bayrou highlighted the importance of sending a signal of “responsibility” and of “stability” in a heavily indebted country, where uncertainties worry markets and stakeholders in life economic.

“Adopting this budget would be a first step in the right direction”, added the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, on Monday. “This is a first step and our economic recovery trajectory requires an effort over several years to have less debt and more growth”, he added.

The RN maintains the suspense

After having negotiated at length with the government, the Socialist Party (PS) has decided not to vote on the two motions of censure announced by La France Insoumise, seriously damaging the alliance with Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party within the New Popular Front (NFP), alongside the communists and the environmentalists.

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“We are opposed to François Bayrou's 2025 budget, but France needs a budget. We will therefore not vote for censure on the Bayrou budget”, wrote the party with 66 deputies in a press release.

The PS has said it intends to file an additional motion of censure“to defend the values ​​of the Republic”, linked to the use, last week by François Bayrou, of the expression “feeling of submersion” migration, which the left considers borrowed from the extreme right.

In this case, he would resort to article 49.2 of the Constitution, which allows the tabling of a motion “signed by at least one tenth of the members of the National Assembly” outside the adoption of a text. But this text has no chance of being adopted.

To be voted on, a motion of censure – article 49.2 or not – must obtain an absolute majority of deputies (currently 288).

The anger of LFI

Marine Le Pen's National Rally (124 MPs) will decide on its position on the motions during a group meeting announced for Wednesday at 3 p.m., as they approach their examination in the chamber. The party led by Jordan Bardella, which helped bring down the previous government led by Michel Barnier on December 4, has not let any of its intentions filter through.

“Bringing down a government is not a game. My personal opinion will be the position that will be decided by the National Rally group and arbitrated by Marine Le Pen,” declared Julien Odoul, MP for Yonne and spokesperson for the RN, on BFMTV.

The presidential camp wants to believe that the need for stability expressed by the French will prevent any censorship, at least for the moment. “It's an encouragement, not a relief,” reacted MoDem MP Erwan Balanant, to the announcement of the PS's non-censorship. “You just have to go to our countryside, people are fed up with the mess, they want stability.”

On the side of La France insoumise, the anger was palpable, like the reaction of the president of the Finance Committee of the Assembly, Éric Coquerel. “It is extremely serious and I hope that the socialist deputies will not follow the advice of their party“, he told the press in the corridors of the Palais-Bourbon, while the New Popular Front seems closer than ever to implosion.