Nationalists are angry: the Institute for the Study of War named the reasons for the collapse of the Putin regime
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Russian nationalists criticize Vladimir Putin and military leaders for their inability to respond to important events. Escalation or nuclear war, according to Western experts, will not solve Russia's problems.
The explosion on the Kerch bridge and the failures of the Russian invaders in Ukraine can undermine the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This conclusion was made by experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Discontent, according to analysts, is growing in the nationalist community of the Russian Federation, which expects war. Putin and the Kremlin have been criticized for failing to clearly respond to important events.
“It's hard to rally around Putin when his government relies on secrecy. Putin didn't pay attention to the sinking of the Moskva cruiser and the exchange of captured Azovstal defenders, whom the Kremlin has demonized since the Battle of Mariupol,” they said.
Russian nationalist criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry and intelligence agencies could undermine Putin's regime in the long run, the report says.
The Institute emphasizes that the nationalist community, which firmly adheres to the ideology of Russia's historical and cultural superiority, perceives the Ukrainian counteroffensive painfully.
“The perception of the trajectory of the war and the possibilities of Ukraine is changing, the Russians are experiencing a rude awakening,” experts said.
Russian propagandists are forced to come up with theses to justify the successful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south. Now they say that the Russian army is fighting against the powerful Western bloc NATO, and not against Ukraine.
Putin changes “scapegoats”
Vladimir Putin reshuffles war leaders to make them extreme in failure and revive enthusiasm in the pro-war environment. An example of this, as noted in ISW, is the appointment of General Sergei Surovikin as commander of a “special military operation.”
be more powerful than the chief of the Russian General Staff,” the institute said.
Such a reaction, according to analysts, looks strange, because Surovikin is an ordinary Russian general who has been in command of the Russian occupiers in southern Ukraine since July.
“Putin cannot do the only thing his constituents demand is win the war. Shuffling senior commanders will not solve systemic problems hindering operations, logistics, defense industry and mobilization. Scapegoats can only divert criticism from Putin to time, direct criticism of the Putin regime will only intensify,” the authors of the report conclude.
The escalation of the military conflict, conventional or nuclear, according to analysts, will not solve Putin’s problems, and the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army will stop only for a while.
“Such attacks could provoke a Western reaction – destroying Russia's remaining military power and its ability to achieve anything of real value,” the authors concluded.
The White House warned that Putin's threats would not prevent further arms supplies to Ukraine. The states did not see signs of the readiness of the President of the Russian Federation to use nuclear weapons.