Nuclear checkmate?

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  • The war in Ukraine is expected to increase the number of nuclear warheads in the world

¿ Nuclear checkmate? /></p></li></ul><p>Nine countries have nuclear weapons:<strong> Russia, USA, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel and Korea of the North</strong>. Together they add up to 12,705 nuclear warheads, according to the latest report from the International Institute for Peace Studies in Stockholm. In 1986, at the end of the Cold War, there were 70,374 head. The<strong>disarmament agreements between the US and the USSR (Russia)</strong>they achieved an 80% reduction. This year they will increase after the invasion of Ukraine. We should not go into the propaganda of the figures, a small portion of these weapons would be enough to end human life.</p><p>The Cold War was based on on a <strong>principle of terror</strong>: no superpower would gain any advantage by attacking first. The answer would be automatic. In English it was called MAD: Assured Mass Destruction. They had memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.</p><p>Although the nuclear threats of <strong>Vladimir Putin</strong>they are not new, they are Sometimes they are in danger because they are the recognition of their weakness in the Ukraine. With the unilateral annexation of Donbas, Kherson and other towns, it tries to draw red lines within Ukraine so that any advance is considered a direct attack on Russia's territorial integrity.</p><h3>Putin is not here. crazy</h3><p>Putin is a bewildered and isolated guy, but he is not crazy (for now) He addresses his audience: the oligarchs who support him, a quasi <strong> fascist </strong> ultranationalist network very active on television and in social networks, the generals and the industry military.</p><p> With the mobilization of at least 300,000 reservists, he seeks to respond to military setbacks. He can't allow the perception to set in <strong> losing the war </strong>, or that he may lose it. The <strong>perceptions</strong>they are more important than weapons: they make or break combat morale and cause riots.</p><p>This week he has received private complaints from China and public complaints from India. They are a warning that friendships are not unconditional. Beijing will be key in quelling nuclear bluster. He offers his verbal support to Moscow, but does not give him arms. China needs peace to grow.</p><p>The Russian situation will not be solved with hundreds of thousands of reservists, many trained in<strong>obsolete or destroyed military equipment.</strong> The problem is structural: the Army is as corrupt as the system. The fuel shortage at the front is not just due to poor planning and Ukrainian guerrilla warfare. High officials steal to traffic with her.</p><h3>First mobilization in years</h3><p>This is the first mobilization since World War II, a defensive war against <strong>Nazism</strong>. This time the wrapper <strong>patriotic </strong>depends only on <strong>propaganda</strong>, not reality. The sending of recruits is not new. it happened in Afghanistan and ended up in disaster.</p><p>Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Major General, famous for his excellent threads on Twitter, assures that the objective is not to add reservists to the current forces, but to serve as relief, since They have <strong>seven months of combat and are exhausted</strong>. He also states that they will take time to reach the theater of operations and that Ukraine has several weeks to advance in Donbas. Everyone tries to fix optimal positions before winter. We will not know the effectiveness of the reservists until 2023. We are in the scenario of a long war.</p><p>The US and the EU accuse Putin of using <strong>dangerous nuclear rhetoric.</strong>It is, but it's been on the table since it twisted. the lightning operation to conquer kyiv in four days.</p><p>Communication in these cases has two levels: what is said in public and what is noticed in private. Charles de Gaulle defended himself After the threat of the ambassador of the USSR, who was protesting his alignment with the US in the Cold War, “Soviet missiles <strong>are aimed at France</strong>“, with a resounding “we will both die because ours are aimed at Moscow.”</p><h3>Russia, the nuclear warhead</h3><p>Russia has more nuclear warheads than the US, 5,977 compared to 5,428. France, 290, and the United Kingdom, 225. We can destroy each other several times, if we have time.</p><p>Nobody thinks of a nuclear world war, but other scenarios should not be ruled out: the use of a <strong>tactical nuclear bomb</strong>against units of the Ukrainian Army, the civilian population in a symbolic place or in an uninhabited area on the day when the weather forecasts are favorable and the wind carries the radioactive cloud towards Poland and Germany, the Baltic countries and the new NATO partners. It could also cause a <strong>Chernobyl in Zaporizhia.  </strong></p><p>What would be the US and NATO response? Would it be nuclear, conventional or would we depend on what China says? It would be a checkmate because no Western leader would dare to enter into that dynamic. Would a small one-kiloton bomb be enough for Putin to win the war, or would it spark a revolution at home? We are dealing with a chess player who has lost his manners and is playing poker. He doesn't have good cards, he just yells. His options are to retreat or break the table with his fists. The first is impossible, life depends on it.</p>  <script async src=