Only one hurricane since the start of the season: is it the calm before the storm?

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Only one hurricane since the beginning of the season: is it the calm before the storm?

The tropical storm that formed in the North Atlantic on Thursday became a hurricane on Friday, but does not currently pose a risk to Canada.

A tropical storm, named ” Danielle,” formed in the North Atlantic and became a hurricane on Friday. This is the first of the season, making 2022 the quietest season in 25 years. But according to experts, this is a short-lived lull, as things could intensify over the next few months.

Last year on the same date, four hurricanes had already formed in the North Atlantic, causing more than twenty deaths in total.

So far, this is very, very quiet, said Jim Prince, meteorologist at the Canadian Hurricane Center.

It is progressing very slowly towards the northeast, and it remains confined offshore . There is no major risk for Canada, assured Mr. Prince, who recognizes that Danielle is however developing very quickly.

A swallow does not make spring, however: the United States Agency for Oceanic and Atmospheric Observation predicts at least 14 storms this year, including 7 hurricanes, of which 3 could turn into major hurricanes.

Hurricane season generally runs from June to the end of November.

Tropical Storm Danielle has become a hurricane with winds of 120 kilometers per hour. This is the first of the season, the quietest in 25 years. Last year at this time, four hurricanes had already formed in the North Atlantic causing more than twenty deaths. A lull that could however be short-lived. Meteorologists expect a rebound in activity in the coming weeks. Report by Danielle Kadjo.

The calm noted in the North Atlantic is explained by the presence of a layer of dry air coming from Africa, according to the Canadian Hurricane Center.

< p class="e-p">A statement confirmed by Philippe Gachon, professor of geography at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).

“We have conditions that do not favor the formation of cyclones. Cyclones that form in the Atlantic generally originate from disturbances that come from the Sahara and generate storms. »

—  Philippe Gachon, professor of geography at the University of Quebec in Montreal

This is why it is necessary to monitor the end of the rainy season [generally in September, Editor's note] in Africa [of the west, Editor's note] to see if it will allow the formation of cyclones or tropical storms, he said.

That's why he urges caution: That doesn't mean we won't have several [hurricanes] in the next few months, and besides, only one major storm may be in the way. origin of enormous damage.

But it is difficult to establish a direct link between the rarity of hurricanes this year and climate change, warns Pascal Geneviève, director and co-founder of the Carbon Consulting Group.

“What is important with the climate is to look at what has happened over several consecutive years to be able to determine in which direction the metrological phenomena are going”

—Pascal Geneviève, director and co-founder of Groupe Conseil Carbone (CCG)

Despite a relative silence from hurricanes in the North Atlantic, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Observation Agency still stands by its forecast.

Mr. Gachon agrees with much the same idea, saying that the context remains favorable for the formation of storms.

Currently, temperatures are colder in the central Pacific than [ in] the Atlantic, which gives a probability of formation of a cyclone and tropical temperatures in the Atlantic. This situation is likely to last until Christmas, argued the academic.

What's more, the Atlantic is warmer than the Atlantic. usual, which could generate storms that could reach the north of the American continent. The warmer the ocean temperatures, the greater the chance of more intense storms developing. And the Atlantic is warming faster than other oceans.

Not only […] it is warming at the surface, but also at depth and up to 2000 meters in some areas of the ocean, he said.

With information from Danielle Kadjo

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