The former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains its wide lead in voting intention polls for the October 2022 presidential elections in Brazil, which would win with 44% of the votes, according to a survey released this Friday by the firm Datafolha.
The socialist leader and leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) practically doubles in voting intention to the current head of state of Brazil, the far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, who aspires to re-election and to whom the Datafolha poll attributes 26% of the favoritism.
The new Datafolha poll, which listened to 3,667 voters between Monday and Wednesday of this week in 190 cities of the country and has a margin of error of two percentage points, practically showed no variations with respect to a survey conducted by the same firm last July.
Lula practically doubles Bolsonaro in voting intention. Photo: Xinhua
While Lula’s voting intention fell slightly from 46% in July to 44% in September, Bolsonaro’s rose from 25% to 26%.
A polarized country
The survey showed that the country still polarized between the far-right leader and the leftist a little more than a year before the presidential elections and that none of the center candidates, who are trying to build a third way, has viability.
In the third place in the survey appears Ciro Gomes, leader of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) and who was the third most voted in the 2018 presidential elections, with a 9% intention to vote, and is followed by the current governor of São Paulo, João Doria, a possible candidate for the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), with 4% of the favoritism.
Lula, elected without a second round
According to the survey, if the elections were today, Lula would be elected president without the need for a second round because he has a voting intention that exceeds that of all the other candidates combined (he would have more than 50% of the valid votes).
Protests against Bolsonaro. Photo: EFE
However, in case of a possible second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president (2003-2010) would prevail with 56% of the votes (less than the 58% measured in July) to the far-right leader, with 31% (the same percentage as in July).
Favorite but rejected
According to Datafolha, the two leaders in the polls are precisely the candidates with higher rejection rates.
While 59% of voters say they would not vote for Bolsonaro under any circumstances, 38% say the same about Lula.
Ciro Gomes’s rejection rate is 30%, Joao Doria’s 37%, José Luiz Datena’s 19% and Eduardo Leite’s 18%.
Lula greets former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso in a pandemic. Photo: Reuters
The PT leader, who was preferred in the 2018 presidential polls, could not dispute the last elections because he had been convicted in two corruption trials by second instance judges and was in jail.
Lula was authorized to contest the presidential elections of next year after the Supreme Court will annul the two sentences that had been imposed on him considering that the then judge Sergio Moro, responsible for the proceedings and with a forum in the city of Curitiba, I had no competition to judge the former head of state and that the cases had to be assumed by a magistrate from Brasilia.
In recent weeks, with his main political adversary as the favorite for the presidential elections, Bolsonaro has assured that Brazil’s electronic voting system is not secure and that it can suffer from fraud, and has even hinted that it may not recognizing the result of the scrutiny.
Lula’s leadership in the voting intention polls coincides with the rise in the disapproval of the Bolsonaro government at record levels. According to a poll released by Datafolha on Thursday, the current ruler’s failure rate reached 53%, the highest since he took office on January 1, 2019.
The survey recorded a two percentage point increase in these rejection rates compared to last July, which Datafolha attributed to the negative impact of massive demonstrations encouraged by Bolsonaro this month and branded by almost all political sectors as “undemocratic.”
At those protests, part of the crowd asked a “military intervention” and the “dissolution” of Parliament and the Supreme Court, with which Bolsonaro generated a serious institutional conflict.