Russia exaggerates success near Bakhmut – ISW

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Russia exaggerates progress near Bakhmut - ISW

Western analysts believe that The “achievements” that the Russian Federation claims are imaginary, and in no way affect the war as a whole.

Russia exaggerates its successes near Bakhmut in order to raise morale among the invaders. This was stated by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their report.

Experts believe that the Russian invaders have made limited “achievements” at best in that sector of the front line. According to them, these “victories” were given to the Russians with great bloodshed and a slow pace.

Covering the situation near Bakhmut in this vein is beneficial to the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who took personal responsibility for the “victory” in the Donbass. In particular, on October 23, he stated that the “Wagnerites” were advancing there at 100-200 meters a day and that this was the “normal pace” for modern achievements.

“Russian forces are likely to falsify claims of an offensive in the Bakhmut area to depict their successes in at least one sector against the backdrop of ongoing losses in the northeast and south of Ukraine.Even the declared speed of advance would be unsuccessful for the main effort in mechanized warfare, and these claims are in fact exaggerated, “says in the message.

Analysts also believe that the completed mobilization in Russia is unlikely to have a decisive impact on Russia's combat power.

They note that Kremlin head Vladimir Putin described a 50-50 ratio between mobilized personnel for combat and support operations in Ukraine . This ratio suggests that a total of 150,000 mobilized troops will take part in the fighting in Ukraine after completing their training sometime in November, experts say.

Russia's deployment of 41,000 poorly trained troops to Ukraine temporarily strengthened Russia's defensive lines. However, these reservists have not yet faced the full brunt of a major and prepared Ukrainian counter-offensive, experts say.

The current deployment has not resulted in an increase in Russian combat power, analysts say. They are confident that this will not happen in the future.

Recall that the ISW believes that Russia is using the declaration of martial law to facilitate mobilization.

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