A few years ago, it was not uncommon to see snow all the way to the Occitan coast. But due to climate change, snowflakes are becoming increasingly rare and only the region's mountain ranges still experience the necessary cold peaks.
We remember the snowfall in Gard and Hérault in February 2018, and the images of local residents going down Rue de l’Université on sleds in Montpellier. In 2020, when Carcassonne also saw some snowfall in March. Or the few flakes that covered Nîmes with a pretty white film for a day in January 2021. But since then, apart from in the Pyrenees and the Cévennes, the flakes seem to be shunning our region.
Less and less snow towards the coast
“What's changing is not the fact that we no longer have good seasons [with lots of snow], but that we have fewer of them,” explains Carlo Maria Carmagnola, from the snow study center working on ClimPy, a project to study snow cover in the Pyrenees.
Gard, Hérault, Aude, Pyrénéens Orientales… It could therefore snow again towards the coast, and at low altitudes. This is due to the variability of the seasons: even if climate change tends to raise temperatures, it can still happen, from one year to the next, that it is colder. This is one of the differences between weather and climate.
Everything will depend on the winter temperatures. Contrary to what one might think, the decrease in snow cover is not due to the decrease in precipitation, but rather to the decrease in mercury: “In winter, precipitation is sometimes even a little bit higher, notes the researcher. It is the temperatures that are increasing, and as a result what falls to the ground is not solid but liquid: it falls as rain rather than snow, at an altitude at which last year perhaps more snow fell than rain. And then of course: when it is warmer, the snow will melt faster.”
This is why we see more effects of warming temperatures in the plains than in the mountains. Going from -5°C to -3°C at the top of Mont-Aigoual has no impact on snow cover. But in Nîmes or Montpellier, where it could be -2°C a few years ago, it is now 1°C, and the snow is replaced by rain.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000So it is not a problem of drought: there is no shortage of precipitation between November and April. But winter temperatures are rising dangerously. According to the latest Tracc report, the number of hot (+25°C) and very hot (+35°C) days will explode in the coming years to reach very worrying levels by 2050. We will no longer see snow.
Blame it on climate change
A recent study by Climate central shows an increase in winter days with positive temperatures in France. In winter 2014, there were 76. In 2023, there were 66 in the same season. And in what has been observed, the share of days with temperatures above zero attributed to climate change is increasing. In 2014, it was warmer because of this global phenomenon for 8 days, while in 2023, it was the case for 10 days.
“As a result, at low and medium altitudes, there are more and more winters with little snow, and fewer and fewer winters with good snow, which does not prevent having exceptionally good snow from time to time, even in a warmer climate”, notes Carlo Maria Carmagnola.
Météo Franceexplains that the extent of snow-covered surfaces, their thickness and the length of time the snow remains on the ground are “doomed to gradually decrease over the decades”. Two trends can then be observed: “Rain episodes are more frequent, to the detriment of snowfall, and on the other hand, the snow on the ground melts more quickly.”
In Occitania, the Pyrenean massif extends over 15,000 km2, between the departments of Hautes-Pyrénées, Haute-Garonne, Ariège, Aude and Pyrénées-Orientales. To a lesser extent, less ancient reliefs are present in the hinterland of Gard and Hérault, with the Cévennes, Aubrac and the Massif Central. These areas are increasingly suffering from a lack of snow, which disrupts the natural water cycle and can affect the continuous supply of waterways.
“This trend is set to continue, with an additional reduction of around one month in the duration of snow cover at low and medium altitudes, for each additional degree of global warming, and a reduction in snow cover that will increasingly affect higher altitudes as warming becomes more pronounced”, the researcher laments.
ClimPy's work is to study the decline in snow cover to identify the most affected areas and establish adaptation programs. In the future, some resorts will have to close, and safeguard plans will have to be adopted to preserve the fauna and flora endangered by this rise in temperatures. ClimPy's diagnostics are commissioned by elected officials or resort managers, who, depending on the situation, choose whether or not to invest in ski areas in particular.
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