How much can the indexation index be in 2023 and 2024?
As the “Super Express” portal reminds, in March this year benefits were indexed by 7 percent. At the moment, there are many indications that the indexation of benefits may be double-digit next year, which is related to rampant inflation. Only in June this year, it was 15.6 percent. The NBP forecasts that inflation is to start falling next year. This means that in March 2024 the indexation may not be that high.
The indexation in 2024 will be significantly lower?
The rampant inflation and huge high prices in stores mean that next year's indexation of pensions may be double-digit and reach the level of 18.1 percent. There are many indications that 2023 will be the last year when the indexation index may be record-high. In 2024, this ratio may be significantly lower.
The Monetary Policy Council has a 50% probability that inflation will be 2.2-6%. This is good news as it will mean that prices will stop rising so rapidly.
Assuming that the currently observed growth rate of wages is maintained (13.4%) and that inflation remains at the level assumed by the MPC, we should expect an increase in pensions at the level of 8.7%.
This would mean that the indexation of benefits in 2024 would be almost twice as low as forecast for next March, but higher than that received by seniors this year.
It is worth recalling that although inflation will start to fall, it does not mean that prices will start to fall. This means that they will not grow so quickly.
What do you think, will the MPC's inflation forecasts for 2023 come true?
