Igor KOZLOV, “the FACTS”
Sunday, June 28, in Poland the vote in the first round of the presidential election. The ballots were 11 candidates. Polish media called the main contenders three of them, the incumbent President Andrzej Duda, the mayor of Warsaw for Rafal Trzaskowski and journalist Shimon Bunt. Between them, the main battle will unfold. All forecasts are reduced also to the fact that you will need a second round because none of the leaders of the race will not be able to secure the necessary number of votes in the first round.
A feature of the current presidential campaign in Poland has become pandemic COVID-19. Elections in the country had to go through may 10. The ruling party “Law and justice”, which is representative Duda, insisted that the vote was held just in time. The opposition urged not to risk life and health of voters. Some parties said that the elections should be moved to 2022. The point of this discussion was set by the deputies of the Sejm and… coronavirus.
In April in Poland there has been a sharp increase in cases of infection COVID-19. He worked hard quarantine. Campaign fighting just petered out. Candidates are not physically able to communicate with voters. Their campaign was curled up by themselves. Only Duda has traveled across the country, but it was presented as working visits of the President. In the end, literally at the last moment, the Parliament voted for the postponement of the election day on June 28.
At the moment in Poland found 33 thousand 714 infected. It takes the 39th place in the world and 13th in Europe in this indicator. Died 1 435 patients. Recovered 19 of the thousands of 972 patients. Remain active 12 307 thousand occasions. Compared to other European countries Poland shows good results. And this is one of the main trumps of Andrzej Duda. He can confidently assert that the authorities dealt with the protection of the population against coronavirus.
The vote in the first round is traditionally held. Open the polls. This follows the measures of individual protection. All those present, including voters, in masks and gloves. Also allowed to vote by mail.
If you believe the media and polls, some advantages have Duda. He’s 48 years old. He runs the country the last five years. The incumbent President has a few trump cards. The main — poles began to live better. This thesis Duda keeps repeating. Indeed, the social policy pursued by the President and the ruling party, like the majority of the population. When Duda was reduced retirement age and introduced the so-called “13th pension”. For each child in the family the parents receive non-taxable PLN 500 per month (approximately $ 125). The program “500+” is the most popular decision of the authorities to date.
On the second trump card mentioned above — a rather successful action of the President and the government to curb the pandemic. Political analysts say that if the elections were held on may 10, Duda definitely would have won. Most poles were willing to vote for him, to “everything was the way it was”.
But over the last eighteen months his position shaken. The coal mines in Silesia suddenly there was a surge coronavirus epidemic. The opposition has unearthed a dubious state contracts for the purchase of medical equipment.
A certain part of the poles do not like the heightened rhetoric Duda regarding LGBT people. The President supported one of the MPs from the ruling party, which television said: “LGBT are not people. And ideology”. Duda went on. He called the gay rights movement by neo-Bolshevism, and said that “it is even more detrimental to human ideology than communism”.
In the European Union these statements provoked sharp criticism. The EU already was dissatisfied by a number of laws adopted in Poland under the Knife. They, as consider in Brussels, infringe on freedom of speech and affect the justice system and civil rights of the population.
Obviously, the dude is a conservative. And he does not hide it, on the contrary, strongly emphasizes their beliefs. Opinion polls show that the President criticized mainly inhabitants of Warsaw and other large Polish cities. But his virtually unconditional support in the provinces, where people prefer traditional values.
Andrzej Duda and Donald trump in the negotiations in the White house
Realizing this, Duda decided to play his last trump card — national security. Just a week before the first round he was able to make an official visit to the United States and held important talks with President Donald trump, who promised Him to strengthen American military presence in Poland in order to protect her and other countries of Eastern Europe from Russian aggression.
Rafal Trzaskowski is the presidency of the liberal democratic opposition bloc “Civic platform”. His rating is second after Duda. The mayor of Warsaw signed the “Charter for LGBT+” in support of sexual minorities. He stated that he would be happy to register the first same-sex marriage in the history of Poland. Now, however, Trzaskowski prefers to emphasize it, so as not to scare off conservative voters.
It emphasizes more on other pressing issues, promising to repeal the reform of the justice system, which, as the EU criticizes Poland. Reminds voters about the empty promises of the pipe, like large-scale housing construction program or state aid to Polish farmers on the level of the rich countries of the EU. And compares these outright failures of the current President with his accomplishments as mayor of Warsaw.
The Mayor Of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski
Trzaskowski like the Dude 48. For all the difference their views have a lot in common. And it plays against the capital’s mayor. It is very popular in Warsaw, but residents of most other regions of the country are confident that Rafal is very far from understanding their pressing problems. For those poles who want change, Trzaskowski is as representative of the political elite, just like Duda.
Against Warsaw’s mayor says the fact that “Civic platform” is not immediately nominated him as their candidate. First was running for President Malgorzata Kidava-Blonskaya. But the rate for the female candidate failed miserably. Its rating in early April did not exceed 5%. The opposition quickly found a replacement. The choice fell on Trzaskowski, who did not need special introduction. But to get rid of the label “spare player” to the end he failed.
Shimon Smut quite similar to its main rivals. Well-known journalist, a former host of the popular TV show Mam Talent (the Polish equivalent of “Britain’s got talent”) before the elections not been involved in politics — here is a portrait of a 43-year-old presidential candidate.
Shimon Smut doesn’t like it when it is compared with Vladimir Zelensky
Polish media have compared the Firebrand Vladimir Zelensky, though Simon himself didn’t like it. Back in may, the polls showed that he can pass to the second round. Now his ranking fell slightly. But to write off a non-partisan candidate from the accounts clearly before. Also, Smut in any case will play a crucial role, not even after the second round. His role depends on who wins in the end — Duda or Trzaskowski, one of them will call Shimon to vote their supporters on 12 July when the second round will be held.
Earlier, the “FACTS” reported about the presidential campaign in Belarus, where elections are scheduled for August 9. Features of this election with the former Soviet Republic in an exclusive interview with the “FACTS” commented Ukrainian political analyst, Institute for the future of Igar Tyszkiewicz. Read — Why the West is inclined to support Lukashenko and how the father cuts off Russian players in the elections.