These are the most likely formations of government after the 2023 election

The Docent in Political History highlights the two most likely options. .jpg “alt =” Are the most likely formations of government after the 2023 elections “/>

Which parties will take power in 2023? INKA [email protected] Yesterday at 19:13

  • After the parliamentary elections of 2023, the next government base is likely to consist of the two most likely options.
  • The election results of the Center Party and the Greens may play a significant role.
  • The importance of unexpected events in the development of support readings should not be underestimated.

According to a place forecast in Must Read's first parliamentary election letter, after the next parliamentary elections, the three largest parties will be the Coalition Party, the Social Democrats and the Basic Finns.

on which the forecast now published is based.

– This is an indicative estimate based on the latest opinion polls and the results obtained by the parties with similar results in the past.

The forecast also lists background assumptions, such as the Coalition’s current high level of support declining by the time of the election. Nevertheless, its support for the 2019 parliamentary elections would be rising significantly. Another underlying assumption is that, despite government responsibility, the SDP will also perform better than in 2019.

Railo emphasizes that the support figures have time to change many more times during the year. More importantly, he mentions indicating the size class in which the different parties move.

– Behind the two largest parties, the Basic Finns and the Center will be roughly the same size, as will the Greens and the Left Alliance.

Board Configurations

Based on the forecast, two government bases are clearly the most likely options. The blueprint formed by the Coalition, the SDP, the Greens and the RKP, or the basic bourgeois government formed by the Coalition, the basic Finns and the center.

According to Railo, the Left Alliance and the Coalition will no longer fit in the same government, so if the blue is realized, the Left Alliance would very likely remain in opposition. The NCB, on the other hand, would obviously be excluded from the basic bourgeois government, as it would not fit on the same government as the basic Finns.

However, it is still impossible to assess which of the two options is more likely. Railo points out that the election results for the center and the Greens can play an important role in this.

– At least in theory, these parties will be able to cooperate across the right-left dividing line. The question is how ready are they to go to government. The center can be pretty fleshy after a long period of rule. Even for the Greens, the responsibility of the government clearly eats support.

Erkka Railo, Associate Professor of Political History, is considering the possible composition of the government after the 2023 parliamentary elections. Antti Mannermaa

However, the biggest obstacle to the Blue Red Government is the very different economic policy lines of the Coalition Party and the SDP. Railo says there is a lot of work and negotiation going on if these parties are to fit into the same government.

– It's hard, but not impossible. The main problem of the bourgeois government, on the other hand, is the difficult situation in the city center. It has been in government for a very long time, and support is declining.

Surprises

The next parliamentary elections will be held on April 2, 2023. Before that, a lot, even surprising things. The future is unpredictable, but Railo cites examples of unexpected events that could affect support figures.

– Support for the Greens could increase as a result of an environmental disaster linked to global warming, for example. In the case of basic Finns, the same can happen, for example, as a result of a tumultuous crime linked to immigration. On the other hand, the change in the security policy climate significantly increased the support of the Coalition Party.

Railo believes the Coalition's current support will melt to some extent before the election, but the forecast for more than 50 seats is still realistic.

– Current support readings would be closer to 60 seats, i.e. 52 seats after the next election, has in a way taken into account the fact that support is leveling off. At the moment, it seems clear that the Coalition Party and the SDP will be the two largest parties in the 2023 elections.

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