Trump's candidacy probably boosted by his assassination attempt

A candidate &agrav; the ear bleeding, the fist raised; and who calls à "fight", while the frightened crowd around begins again " chant "USA, USA": we still don't know the exact impact that the assassination attempt will have on Donald Trump, but this sequence has already been confirmed. This historic development could prove positive for him electorally.

The event, which sparked a media explosion in the United States and elsewhere in the world, also allows the candidate to put his recent criminal conviction in the background. It also has the effect of forcing his rival Joe Biden to temporarily suspend his campaign advertisements.

“I think this will strengthen Trump's electoral base and bring the Republicans together behind him”, analyzes for AFP Wendy Schiller, professor of political science at the prestigious Brown University. “But I'm not convinced that this will attract the votes of independent voters.”

The 78-year-old former president quickly made it known that he would indeed be present at the major Republican convention that opens Monday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where tens of thousands of his supporters plan to celebrate him, not only as a candidate but now as a miracle survivor.

– The Reagan case –

The attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan, seriously wounded by a bullet on March 30, 1981 in Washington, had allowed the Republican president to record a spectacular jump in his popularity rating.

Donald Trump at his campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, July 13, 2024 © AFP – Rebecca DROKE

Despite his condition, Mr. Reagan insisted on walking to enter the emergency department of the George Washington Hospital, and Americans were deeply touched in the following days by seeing their president joke with the doctors and nurses.

As a result, on the hundredth day of his first term, i.e. thirty days after the attack, Mr. Reagan united 92% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats!

– Contrast with Biden-

Did Donald Trump act out of political opportunism or simply the reflex of a man who had just escaped death? From the first seconds after the attack, he displayed a posture of defiance, seeming to want to extricate himself from the embrace of his bodyguards to continue to harangue the spectators of his meeting.

How can we not think of another image, that of a Joe Biden worn out by the years, who slumped last year on the dais of 'a ceremony at the Air Force Academy in Colorado ?

The Democratic president was then also relieved by agents of the Secret Service , the incident fueling doubts about his health. Doubts which are currently peaking, with some Democrats urging Mr. Biden to throw in the towel.

We must add to this the fact that Donald Trump has long been a master in exploiting the media hype generated by his personality, including for the seemingly most negative facts.

An election poster of Donald Trump using his mug shot, in Milwaukee, July 14, 2024 © AFP – Brendan Smialowski

First president targeted by two impeachment procedures, first ex-president convicted criminally, he knew each time how to use adversity to refine his image as an unsinkable leader, supposedly assailed by a corrupt system. As illustrated by the record fundraising from which he benefited, one after another.

He who knew so well how to use his famous legal ID photo, supposed to be infamous and taken on August 24, 2023 by the Fulton County Sheriff's Department in the state of Georgia, how can we imagine that he will not be able to take advantage of the one with his bloody cheek, sticking so well to the image that he intends to project, that of a wrestler who we want to bring down ?

All rights of reproduction and representation reserved. © (2024) Agence France-Presse