US elections: The Republican advance among minorities exacerbates the crisis of the Democratic coalition

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US Elections: The Republican advance among minorities sharpens the crisis of the Democratic coalition

Demography ;a is not the destination. This electoral and political reality is increasingly evident in the United States. Since the 1990s, and especially after the re-election of Barack Obama in 2012, both Democrats and Republicans have identified demographic changes with a weight increasing number of minorities, a future that electorally supposedly benefited the Democrats. That diagnosis, however, was wrong. It was proven in the election of Donald Trump in 2016, in the 2018 legislative elections and in the 2020 presidential elections. to be tested this Tuesday in the mid-term elections.

The coalition on which it was built Obama's arrival in the White House is failing while the Republican Party advances in its goal of ruling as the multiracial party of the working class. Adding to the bleeding of white working-class voters toward conservatives that was vital to Trump's victory is an increasingly pronounced flight of Latino voters and, although to a much lesser extent, from black voters. And although the Democratic Party continues to have a consistent advantage among Latinos and an overwhelming advantage among the black population, and despite the fact that some Democratic strategists and organizers and analysts believe that it is too early to speak of an erosion In short, many voices point to changes that can last.

Latinos and the case of Nevada

Few votes are watched more closely than that of Latinos, who represent fifth of the US population, 14.3% of the electoral roll strong> and are the fastest growing voting bloc in the US, having increased 142% since 2000. They are a block that defies categorization and has proven election after election radically more complex and diverse than the monolithic image with which it was tried. for a long time.

Trump, despite his xen & gué fobo speech, reached & gué; to the part of that electorate that is aligned with conservative values away from progressive policies on issues such as abortion or the rights of the LGBTQ community >, favorable to the strong hand with the immigration without papers and also to workers They felt class disconnected from the Democratic Party. And the Republican not only improved in 2016 the results among Latinos of Mitt Romney, but in 2020 he raised them. another 8% (10% according to the Pew center).

These gains have contributed, for example, to Florida becoming more and more settled. on the Republican side and for South Texas to do so as well, the area near the border that Historically, it was a Democratic stronghold. And the Latino vote this Tuesday will be key in fundamental states for control of the Senate such as Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.

The   ;crat Catherine Cortez Masto and the republican Adam Laxalt is maybe the most revealing example of trends at the national level. For Latinos, the economy is, as for the population in general, the dominant concern. And although Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator, counts to renew her position with a 33-point advantage in support between them, it may not be enough to overcome Laxalt, a candidate who opposed raising the minimum wage. , as attorney general rrejected protections for ‘dreamers’ (children of undocumented immigrants who arrived in the US before 2007) and that in addition to supporting the conspiracy theory about a non-existent electoral fraud in 2020, has repeated the &ldquo ;great replacement”, accusing the Democrats of using immigrants to “destroy the values ​​that made the United States a great nation”. being seen as acceptable among Latinos despite these postulatesDemocrats, just like Trump, is “what Democrats should really be worried about,” as analyzed in ‘The Washington Post’ Carlos Odio, founder of Equis Research, a firm specializing in the study and advancement of the Latino community. “If that barrier has really fallen and remains down, it is possible that there will be a greater realignment”.

The black voter

Something similar happens with black voters. Although the Democrats maintain their firm advantage in that voting bloc, which Biden won. over Trump in 2020 by a 75-point margin, Trump passed from 6% of the black vote that Romney obtained to 8% in 2016 and 12% in 2020. And that last year he got better. 6% its results among black men, one of the data that confirms the observations of analysts who perceive increasingly a gender and generation gap that cracks the unitary black vote and forces the Democratic apparatus to stop taking some things for granted.

Even with messages and Policies weighed down by racism, including the approval of regulations that are limiting and restricting the right to vote in a way that especially punishes minorities, the Republican Party advances. And the training is on. also giving a boost to its image of diversity, giving support and money to minority candidates.

This Tuesday on the ballots for the House of Representatives in Washington there will be 22 black men and six black women as Republican candidates, in addition to 33 Hispanics, 13 Asians and three American Indians. For the Senate the Republicans have three black candidates and two Latinos.