We are facing powerful storms. Scientists told how climate change will affect hurricanes
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Using Hurricane Ian as an example, the researchers described how hurricanes are changing under the influence of climate change.
Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida, was one of the most massive in the US on record. It was preceded by a series of devastating storms that hit from the Philippines in the western Pacific to the Canary Islands in the eastern Atlantic, Japan and Florida in the mid-latitudes, and to western Alaska and the Canadian Maritime Islands in the high latitudes. As a result, many have become interested in how rising global temperatures on the planet affect the magnitude of such storms, writes Inverse.
Scientists believe that climate change increases the strength of hurricanes and the intensity of rain, as well as storm surges. Researchers still cannot find a link between the number of hurricanes and climate change, but they are confident that in the coming years, most hurricanes will be strong storms, such as Ian and others.
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In the course of research, scientists modeled current storms, as well as future ones, taking into account climate change. A computer model shows that the amount of precipitation during a hurricane will be directly dependent on the global temperature of the Earth – for every additional degree there will be at least 7% additional precipitation.
In addition, scientists believe that due to climate change, wind speeds will also increase, and the proportion of storms that reach categories 4 and 5 will increase significantly. This means that the potential damage that storms can cause will also increase. In simple words, a Category 4 hurricane, like Iana, will cause about 256 times more damage than a Category 1 hurricane with much lower wind speeds.
Another important factor is storm surges – rising waters off the coast, caused by the storm. Their height depends on the speed of the storm, its size, wind direction, and the topography of the coastal Orsk bottom. Scientists believe that climate change will lead to an increase in surges – firstly, stronger storms increase the likelihood of higher surges, and secondly, due to global warming, sea levels will rise significantly.
At the same time, scientists do not can say with certainty how climate change will affect the number of hurricanes that form each year. This question is still open.