Spread the love

What to expect between now and the second round of the French legislative elections?

Photo: Aurelien Morissard Associated Press Less than a week before a decisive second round, what can we expect from the different camps?

Marc-Antoine Franco Rey

Published yesterday at 7:56 p.m. Updated at 1:26 a.m.

  • Europe

The National Rally triumphed in the first round of legislative elections on Sunday in France, suggesting a return of the far right to power for the first time since the Second World War. Less than a week before a decisive second round, what can we expect from the different camps ? An expert answered the questions of Devoir.

Seventy-six deputies have already been elected in the first round, including 39 from the far right. What do these seats already won reveal ?

These elected officials are “very well established in their territory”, indicates Julien Tourreille, researcher in strategic and diplomatic studies at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.

Among these personalities, we include the leading figure of the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen, who “is systematically, or almost, elected in the first round” each time, in her constituency of Hénin-Beaumont, mentions the political scientist.

These legislative elections are in fact 577 local elections which give the pulse of political allegiances by region. “It reflects above all the local roots in the constituency of the person who won the election,” summarizes Julien Tourreille.

Mr. Tourreille nevertheless notes some indications of the wave observed in favor of the RN: the defeat of Fabien Roussel, leader of the Communist Party, is an example. The former elected representative of a constituency in the north of France lost this stronghold of the left at the hands of an elected official from the RN, who obtained more than 50% of the votes in the first round. A result which illustrates, according to the specialist, “the shift in the vote of the popular working classes from the left to the extreme right”, a phenomenon visible for decades in the region.

More than 155 withdrawals took place following the first round, according to a provisional count from Agence France-Presse. What strategy can we expect from far-right opponents ?

Julien Tourreille is clear: “The withdrawal is really the realization of this desire to block the RN. » After this first round, the hypothesis of seeing the RN defeated or not being the first party on July 7 is now very unlikely, estimates the expert.

From the left to the center right, candidates who came third in the first round gave way to the second, hoping that it will collect more votes than the RN next Sunday. “To withdraw, normally, according to the idea of ​​the leaders of the political parties, is to allow us to have a reservoir of votes and to beat the candidate of the National Rally,” summarizes Mr. Tourreille.

Some are, however, “reluctant” to withdraw, raises the political scientist: if former elected officials call to block the road to the extreme right, they refuse to give votes to the left.< /p>

“It’s a bit of a delicate position, even counterproductive,” agrees Mr. Tourreille. This testifies, according to him, to a certain ambivalence between which is worse, between the National Rally or La France insoumise, party within the left alliance of the New Popular Front (NFP).

It is not impossible, therefore, that triangulars are held, believes Julien Tourreille. But negotiations are still to be expected between now and Tuesday evening, the deadline for maintaining or withdrawing one's candidacy in the second round.

The “first objective” of the “Republican front” will be to “mobilize its electorate as much as possible to prevent […] the National Rally from having an absolute majority”, or 289 seats, argues Julien Tourreille.

Also read

  • Race against time in France to block the far right
  • The international press castigates Macron after the electoral success of the far right in France
  • Macron's defeat in France, a wake-up call for Biden ?
  • Around a hundred candidates have already withdrawn to counter the far right in France

If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, Jordan Bardella will become Prime Minister. Who will take on this role in the event of a New Popular Front victory ?

The left alliance is “not yet in this position,” explains the researcher. “At present, [the parties forming the NFP] are so far behind the National Rally that they believe that vis-à-vis the electorate, they cannot afford to be in conjectures » on who will take Matignon, seat of the Prime Minister.

When the agreement between the various left-wing parties was reached, criteria for who should eventually be prime minister were established, including that it be a figure who is not polarizing.

“Their approach, for the week, is to have the most deputies elected under the banner of the New Popular Front or under another banner, even Macronist,” maintains Mr. Tourreille.

At the end of the second round, if trends have emerged in the results, they should be better able to know who will be the person designated to succeed Gabriel Attal.

Depending on this balance of power between the different parties within the NFP, the difficulty will be, for a possible candidate, to succeed. “It could also implode this New Popular Front,” warns Mr. Tourreille.

In this key moment, where the goal is to block the National Rally, moving forward on who could be prime minister would ultimately risk creating more division.

What will the National Rally be banking on between now and Sunday ? How do they plan to convince voters to vote for them ?

The party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen will put forward that it needs an absolute majority to govern or that it must get closer to it in order to consider alliances with what 'he will remain of the conservative right-wing party, Les Républicains.

“Their strategy [at the RN], […] will be to normalize as much as possible, to reassure, to say that there will be more rights for all French people,” predicts Julien Tourreille. They will also take advantage, to consolidate themselves, of the uncertain future of a government formed by a divided opposing coalition.

The National Rally and the “Republican Front” “objectively need each other as a deterrent figure to mobilize their own camp,” concludes Julien Tourreille.

Teilor Stone

By Teilor Stone

Teilor Stone has been a reporter on the news desk since 2013. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining Thesaxon , Teilor Stone worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my teilor@nizhtimes.com 1-800-268-7116