1000 days of war in Ukraine

Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff archives Agence France-Presse A man says goodbye to his daughter before she boards an evacuation train at kyiv's central railway station on February 28, 2022.

Magdaline Boutros

Published at 0:00

• Europe

1,000 days ago, Russia launched its bombers, tanks and hatred on Ukraine, hoping to bring about the rapid capitulation of kyiv; 1,000 days later, Ukraine is still standing, but greatly weakened and wounded. At a time when volunteers are becoming fewer and fewer in number to fight the enemy, Dimko Zhluktenko, 26, has decided to enlist and will leave for the front in December.

“The time has come for me to do my part in the fight and to set a positive example for my friends who are still civilians to follow,” he told Le Devoir. But first, the young man wanted to marry his beloved. “She is now my wife,” he says proudly. “There is no one here who is not afraid of war.”

Russia is currently accelerating its advances in eastern Ukraine. Since the beginning of November, Vladimir Putin’s troops have conquered approximately 458 square kilometers of territory. “Russian forces are conducting two simultaneous and complementary offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk,” a logistical hub that the Kremlin has been trying to conquer for eight months, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

A takeover that would allow Russia to “create the conditions” to seize the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions. At the same time, the Russian army is strengthening its infantry and the presence of its armoured vehicles along the southern front, which suggests that it will soon attempt an advance in the Zaporizhzhia region — where Dimko will be deployed.

Photo: Dimko Zhluktenko Dimko Zhluktenko, 26, who recently enlisted in the army

Salves of Russian drones have also targeted the country’s energy infrastructure in recent days, suggesting a bitterly cold winter for civilians in Ukraine.

With this intensification of strikes, Putin is likely hoping to achieve a strategic breakthrough on the battlefield and in terms of Ukrainian morale before the start of possible peace negotiations promised by the next US president, Donald Trump.

“When you send a signal that you are ready to compromise at Ukraine's expense, it is an invitation to Putin to try to win more before possible negotiations,” says Olexiy Haran, professor of comparative politics at the National University of Kiev-Mohyla Academy.

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Strike Further

Perhaps in a final chance for Ukraine before these talks, current President Joe Biden has in recent hours authorized the country to strike Russia deeper into its territory using American ATACMS missiles, with a range of nearly 300 km.

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Several of these missiles, supplied by the United States, have already been used by the Ukrainian army to hit targets on its territory — so it is not clear how many may still be used. A similar authorization could be given for the British Storm Shadow missiles and the French SCALP missiles, which contain American components. Moscow warned the West again on Monday that if kyiv took action, it would amount to “direct involvement of the United States and its satellites” and that Moscow’s response “will be felt.”

Photo: Aris Messinis archives Agence France-Presse A woman reacts in front of a house that caught fire after being shelled, in the city of Irpin, on March 4, 2022.

This agreement on the use of long-range missiles appears to be limited only to striking the Kursk region — where some 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed in recent weeks to push Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory. After months of procrastination by the West, however, it would not be surprising if Russia had moved its weapons and ammunition depots and launch pads that Ukraine wanted to strike.

For Professor Haran, this new measure is “good, but late.” Dimko Zhluktenko, who will soon be flying drones on the front lines to “find targets in Russian territory,” also believes it is a step in the right direction, even if it is “too little, too late.”

If Ukraine’s Western allies had supplied a fraction of the weaponry the country has today as early as 2022, the reality on the front lines would be very different today, he believes. “[Meanwhile], Russia’s allies are very fast, decisive, and eager to show the West that they are competitive players on the global battlefield that is Ukraine,” he notes.

58% This is the proportion of Ukrainians who remain opposed to any territorial concession that could be made to Russia, according to a survey conducted in early October by the International Institute of Sociology in kyiv.

Letting go of regions ?

On the eve of possible peace negotiations, several hypotheses are circulating about what could be part of a compromise. Russia is known to covet the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which the Duma annexed to Russia in October 2022, in violation of international law.

The Kremlin is also demanding that the Ukrainian army be limited to 50,000 men, that Ukraine abandon its plans to join NATO and reinstate the teaching of Russian in schools.

According to a poll conducted in early October by the International Institute of Sociology in kyiv, 58% of Ukrainians remain opposed to any territorial concessions that could be made to Russia, while 32% of respondents accept this possibility (this proportion was 10% at the start of the war).

Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff archives Agence France-Presse A school building damaged during the bombing of March 3, 2022, in the city of Chernihiv. Dozens of people died.

For Professor Haran, however, it is clear that such concessions would be “very bad” for Ukraine, and for the world as a whole, since they would “set a precedent.” “If the West accepts this, it sends a signal that any country — like Iran or China — can do it [militarily invade a territory to conquer it].”

Dimko, however, sees the situation differently, believing that “it would not be a bad deal” if the front line were frozen in its current position. “Right now, with the resources we have, and especially with insufficient ammunition, it is not possible to reclaim these cities [that have fallen under Russian rule]. For me, Ukraine would be victorious if it remains a sovereign nation, without kyiv being captured.”

Both men agree, however, to demand solid security guarantees to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine again in the future. A thousand days after the start of the war, the vast majority of Ukrainians are more than convinced “that it is impossible to have relations with Russia,” thunders Professor Haran.

But by the time Putin, Zelensky, Trump and European leaders ask their emissaries to sit around the same table, it is a safe bet that the fighting on the ground will intensify. Since what will be on the negotiating table is currently being debated on the battlefield.