As the presidential election looms American election remains very uncertain, Donald Trump announced that there will be no second debate against Kamala Harris. Two days after the debate that pitted him against his rival, Kamala Harris, for the first time in this somewhat special campaign, Donald Trump announced on Thursday, September 12, that he refused to debate the vice president a second time. “There will be no third debate,” Donald Trump declared on his social network Truth Social, counting the first debate that pitted him against to outgoing President Joe Biden, before he gave up his place as candidate to Kamala Harris. “When a boxer loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, 'I want another one.' Polls clearly show that I won the debate against Comrade Kamala Harris, the candidate of the radical left of the Democrats, on Tuesday night, and she immediately called for a second debate,” Donald Trump while observers tend to agree that Kamala Harris has gained the upper hand over the former president during the same debate. The fact remains that the outcome of this American presidential election remains uncertain to this day. According to the latest polls, Vice President Kamala Harris has around 48% of voting intentions compared to 47% for her opponent, Republican Donald Trump, at nationally. And the polls are also very close in the few states that will be decisive for this 2024 presidential election. The debate, a turning point ?
The debate organized on ABC on September 10 between the two candidates was lively, but clearly, Americans considered that Kamala Harris was better and more convincing. 63% of citizens who watched the debate considered that the Democrat had been better, according to a poll by the SSRS institute for CNN.
What are the poll results between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris ?
Since Joe Biden's withdrawal, the new Democratic candidate has enjoyed unprecedented popularity among Democrats. Polls show that she is garnering more voting intentions than Joe Biden did. The chart below compiles the largest national polls, in voting intentions, conducted on the American elections.
The American election is actually played out state by state, with each state giving candidates a share of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election.
Kamala Harris' victory, an increasingly probable result
Polls vary easily from one day to the next, but the trend and dynamics are in favor of the Democratic candidate. Here is what the polls show in each state at this stage. Here is the map of the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily on Linternaute.com:
The United States is a very divided country politically, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others that traditionally vote for Republicans, such as Montana or the Midwestern states.
But in a dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to swing their territory either for one candidate or the other. These “swing states” are the most targeted by presidential candidates, because whoever wins the election in the main ones generally wins the election. For now, in the 8 most important, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck. Here is the list of polls in the most important swing states, according to the compilation of 270towin, on September 13, 2024:
- Pennsylvania (19 electors out of 270): Harris 47% – Trump 47%
- Arizona (11 electors out of 270): Harris 46% – Trump 48%
- Wisconsin (10 electors out of 270) : Harris 50% – Trump 46%
- North Carolina (16 major voters out of 270) : Harris 47% – Trump 47%
- Nevada (6 major voters out of 270): Harris 47% – Trump 47%
- Georgia (16 major voters out of 270) : Harris 47% – Trump 48%
- Michigan (15 electors out of 270): Harris 49% – Trump 46%
- Florida (30 electors out of 270): Harris 45% – Trump 49%
Who votes for Kamala Harris ? Who votes for Donald Trump ?
Studies conducted on electoral sociology highlight clear divisions between Kamala Harris's supporters and Donald Trump's. The Pew Research Center, in a study published on September 9, highlights this:
- Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) to Harris (46%), while the opposite is true for women.
- Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris (84%). Narrower majorities of Asian (61%) and Hispanic (57%) voters also support Harris. A majority white voters (56%) support Trump.
- 53% of voters without a college degree are voting for Trump, compared to 44% for Harris, with the Democrat leading the way among voters with four years of college or more (57% vs. 41%)
- Voters under the age of 18 are voting for Trump, compared to 44% for Harris. 50-year-olds are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than Trump (44%), while voters 50 and older support Trump over Harris (53% vs. 46%).
When is the 2024 US presidential election taking place ?< /h2>
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000Voters are set to cast their ballots on November 5th to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election and choose who will serve in the White House for the next four years. However, Americans will not directly elect the president of the United States; instead, they will elect 538 electors based on the number of representatives each state has in Congress. These are the voters, who also have a political color – between blue for the Democrats and red for the Republicans – who will then elect the President and his Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the Head of State will take place on January 20, 2025.
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Trump, a candidate eligible for the presidency despite the processes ?
The Republican camp will be represented by Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The millionaire discouraged or defeated the dozen or so candidates who entered the race before or during the primaries. It must be said that the former White House occupant enjoys impressive popularity among conservative voters. And his support is never weakened by his legal setbacks, or even his convictions. Donal Trump has already é been convicted twice since January 2024 for defamation and financial fraud.
The presidential candidate was also convicted in April in criminal court for falsifying campaign accounts to conceal a bribe paid to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels, in August, another trial awaits her for voter fraud in Georgia during the 2020 campaign. The most anticipated judgment, on Donald Trump's involvement in the storming of the Capitol in January 2021, was scheduled to begin on March 4, but has been postponed to a later date.
This latest trial is the only one that poses a real risk to Donald Trump's candidacy. In the United States, no conviction or prison sentence represents a character of ineligibility in the United States, only the fact of having “taken part in an insurrection or a rebellion” against the country and its institutions prevents an individual from being elected to high state functions. With the charges of “conspiracy against the state” and “incitement to insurrection” being retained in the trial on the Capitol attack, the trial could recognize Donald Trump's ineligibility. But in reality the chances of that happening are (very) slim.
Donald Trump's eligibility was threatened for the primaries of three states – Colorado, Maine and Illinois – but these judgments were overturned by the Supreme Court of the United States on March 4. A choice supported by conservative and progressive judges who believe that decisions of federal states cannot influence a common federal election. all US states.
Kamala Harris, the surprise candidate with the surprise result ?
Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? The American billionaire's team had Joe Biden's age and failing health as their main campaign argument. He was caught off guard and pulled out of the boxes the talking points against Kamala Harris that hit home while she was simply vice-president: her record in California where Kamala Harris was prosecutor, her position deemed too lax on immigration, her lack of clarity on many economic issues…
Kamala Harris is determined to beat an opponent she knows well. Her personal journey is impressive and the vice president knows how to remind people of this. “I am empirical proof of the promise of America,” she regularly explains, she is the African-American from an academic background who became the first woman to &be elected prosecutor of San Francisco, before becoming attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017. Her energy but also her youth ended up seducing the Democratic camp. At 59 years old, Kamala Harris' candidacy has consigned to oblivion the announced duel between the two seniors Biden-Trump, both over 80 years old. All the party bigwigs are now behind her. Another strong point: she is said to have raised more than $600 million in campaign donations, according to American business media. That's three times more than Donald Trump. A windfall that could play in key states, where expensive campaign clips are broadcast to convince the undecided.
And also in the news
Who are the other candidates for the 2024 American presidential election ?
Aside from the candidates of the two major American parties, one man has entered the presidential race, confident of his chances. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., nephew of former American President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, is running as an independent candidate. He had initially considered participating in the Democratic Party primaries, before finally giving up on this possibility In October 2023, the heir to the famous American dynasty finally ended his campaign to officially support Donald Trump. In the event of a new victory in the presidential election, Donald Trump has also said he is ready to offer the future ex-candidate a position within his administration.
Three other candidates are in the race and are collecting a few crumbs in the voting intentions – which explains why the total between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than 100: Cornel West, candidate of the People's Party, an independent political party; Chase Olivier, the candidate of the Libertarian Party; Randall Terry, candidate of the Constitution Party and Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. All these candidates have no chance of being elected, given the weakness of their support and their financing. But above all, American political life is entirely structured around two main parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, which provides a framework that ensures both the predominance of two clearly opposed voices and the assurance of a long-term alternation.
How American elections work ?
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the election.