Editorial/The Vision Pro arrives in France: a high-risk release for Apple

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Almost everything has been smiling on Apple since the release of the first iPhone. Each new product caused a stir, created crowd movements in front of Apple Stores, disrupted the daily lives of millions of individuals and fueled Apple's cash machine. This insolent success has given rise to much jealousy in the Tech industry, even pushing leading brands to shamefully copy Pommés devices. It was hard to imagine Apple being shaken up. And yet…

Last year, Apple unveiled the Vision Pro, its mixed reality headset pompously nicknamed 'space computer'. For the first time since the Apple Watch, Apple opened a new category of products. Very quickly, fans dubbed the Vision Pro, describing it as the next technological revolution that would change humanity (no less). Analysts and investors also received this announcement positively, without however sharing the excitement of techies.

The most skeptical predicted a rapid failure. How Apple was going to be able to democratize a technology that dozens of major brands have failed to put into the hands of the general public over the last ten years? Thanks to its aura? Thanks to its marketing power ? Why not. “No one believed in the iPhone, the iPad or AirPods in their release, yet they have become standards” chanted the most fervent defenders of the brand. This is true, but past successes do not necessarily validate future projects, even less so in the absence of the company's creative brain, the late Steve Jobs.

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Disappointing first figures

After the announcement effect, reality quickly caught up with Apple. According to figures published by IDC on July 11, the brand has sold only 100,000 units of its headset per quarter. The firm predicts 500,000 sales for the first year, including the international launch. The launch of the Vision Pro in France and internationally is therefore a crucial step for the future of the product. Because analysts are unanimous: as it stands, the product will never succeed in winning over the general public.

Too expensive (4,000 euros in France), the Vision Pro suffers from design flaws preventing such an expensive purchase from being considered. It is too heavy, too bulky and not very durable. But it is above all the restricted content and uses which limit its adoption by the masses. If Apple boasts of the arrival of thousands of applications in the coming weeks and months, the Vision Pro remains a niche product with limited uses. Video games, for example, are completely absent. The same goes for pornographic content, although it is popular with billions of users around the world.

More annoying, entertainment applications are also very discreet. Apart from Apple TV+, its in-house streaming service, the Vision Pro only includes an optimized version of Disney+. No Netflix, Youtube and other Prime Video. This makes the investment expensive. Especially since the experience of spatial computing does not make up for these weaknesses. Due to its weight and low battery life, the Vision Pro cannot really replace a computer. Moreover, it needs to be connected to a Mac to serve as a working interface.

2025, pivotal year

Consumers are not mistaken: the launch of the Vision Pro in France is nothing comparable to what we experienced in the heyday of the iPhone. Present at the Apple Store on the Champs-Elysées, our colleague Nicolas Lellouche, journalist for Numerama, reports a few dozen people present for the launch of the headset in France .We are therefore far from the long queues and tents pitched on the sidewalk of the main Parisian avenue.

Some will say that the price positioning of the Vision Pro is its main problem. Good news: Apple is planning a headset half the price, but also less sophisticated, by the end of 2025. Analysts are closely monitoring this launch, which will undoubtedly be a pivotal step in the future. future of headphones. In fact, the low sales of the Vision Pro have currently had no effect on the company's results. On the other hand, market transformations combined with a failure of this product could cost it more.

Apple's results still remain very dependent on iPhone sales. However, the smartphone market is experiencing an unprecedented slowdown. All major manufacturers have moved upmarket by increasing prices to maintain their margins despite a drop in volume. But this strategy has its limits, particularly that of the renewal cycle. In 2024, consumers will renew their smartphone on average every 3 years, compared to every 2 years previously.

Dual Strategy

Apple is therefore playing on two fronts. First, it is counting on the integration of Apple Intelligence into its new devices to accelerate the renewal cycle and therefore give a boost to iPhone sales. But this strategy requires time, the delay accumulated on AI does not allow Apple to launch its AI on all global markets. Thus, Apple Intelligence will only be available in the next iPhone 16 in the United States initially, Apple having not complied with the DMA requirements in Europe either.

At the same time, the company is opening a new product category with the Vision Pro, with a more complicated start than expected. True, IDC points out that no brand has sold as many AR and VR headsets or generated as much revenue with a first product in this market. But analysts agree that the Vision Pro is not the tidal wave expected.

They are, however, more optimistic about the adoption of a less expensive headset. IDC forecasts the sale of 6.9 million Apple headsets over the next four years, or $13.8 billion in revenue. Enough to make Apple the undisputed leader in this walk. Can we, however, speak of democratization?? Not really. For comparison, the iPhone sold 73.74 million units over its first four years of existence (10 times more than sales estimates headset) or around $44 billion in revenue.

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