Photo: Susan Walsh Associated Press By leaving the race, the 81-year-old Democrat joins the very select club of outgoing American presidents who have thrown in the towel while seeking a second term. But he is the first to do so this late in the campaign.
Marc-Antoine Franco Rey
Published yesterday at 2:02 p.m. Updated yesterday at 9:40 p.m.
- United States
United States President Joe Biden declared on Sunday that he was withdrawing from the American presidential election, supporting the candidacy of Kamala Harris to succeed him. In the process, the vice-president said that she intended to “win the Democratic nomination” with a view to “beating Donald Trump” in November. With less than a month until the party's convention, scheduled for August 19, nothing is a foregone conclusion for the 59-year-old Democrat, experts say.
“Today, I want to give my full support and support to Kamala to be our party’s candidate this year. Democrats, it’s time to come together and beat Trump,” Joe Biden wrote on X on Sunday, announcing that he would now focus on his duties as president. The White House also assured that he would complete his term.
His rival reacted on his social network, Truth Social, by writing that “Joe Biden the crook was not fit to be a candidate and [that] he is certainly not fit to hold office.” Kamala Harris will be “even worse” than Joe Biden, the Republican's campaign team also quickly wrote.
Vice-President Harris, for her part , praised the 81-year-old Democrat's “selfless and patriotic act,” saying she would do “everything in [her] power to unify the Democratic Party — and unite [their] nation.”< /p>
“Natural Heir”
As vice-president, Kamala Harris is in a way Joe Biden's “natural” heir, but not his “automatic” successor, explains Rafael Jacob, associate researcher at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
Contrary to what is written in the American Constitution in the event of resignation, dismissal, incapacity or death of the president – the vice-president immediately becomes president – there is no rule here dictating the procedure to follow in the present situation.
“There is no manual for this,” says the political scientist. We are in completely new territory. »
One point remains certain: Kamala Harris' position as vice president “does not guarantee her being the [Democratic] candidate,” says Rafael Jacob.
“It is not written anywhere that the president can impose his candidate […], because there are delegates who have nevertheless voted beforehand”, continues Karine Prémont, deputy director of the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair and professor at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke.
The president's support still has “significant” weight, especially since Kamala Harris “is the only one who has experience in the White House among the candidates being considered,” believes Ms. Prémont. So, it’s definitely a definite advantage for her.”
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Rain of praise from the Democrats
After the publication of a letter from Joe Biden announcing that he was withdrawing “in the interest of [his] party and the country,” praise continued to flow into the Democratic camp.
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Their leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, hailed a “great patriot”, while former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi praised “one of the most successful presidents important in American history.”
Influential voices also rose within the Democratic ranks to rally alongside Ms. Harris. Former President Bill Clinton and his wife, Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, said in a statement that they were “honored to join the President in supporting Vice President Harris “.
Other leading Democrats, including Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania who was previously tipped to replace Mr. Biden, also supported Ms. Harris' candidacy. “I will do everything I can to help elect Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States,” Shapiro said on X.
The Former President Barack Obama expressed his “confidence” in his party to establish “a process that will allow the emergence of an exceptional candidate”, without mentioning Kamala Harris.
And Justin Trudeau hailed “a great man”, “a partner of Canadians and a true friend”.
Reconfigure the race
If this support is considerable, experts recall that Kamala Harris did not stand out from the outgoing president in the polls on the possibility that he would pass the torch to her. His lead over Joe Biden was so far “negligible,” according to researcher Rafael Jacob.
“There is no one who did better than Biden or almost , says Professor Karine Prémont. That's why he stayed. »
“It’s not like we’re replacing Biden with an option that’s solid,” says Rafael Jacob. She’s not a strong candidate herself. » But the fact is that, among the other potential candidates, “there is no one who unites everyone currently”, summarizes the political scientist.
However, he remains possible that with the support of the outgoing president, Harris will have the necessary push to climb in voting intentions. “There can be a significant mobilization effect,” according to Karine Prémont.
This “movement of enthusiasm and novelty” which would boost the morale of the Democratic troops is indeed probable, Mr. Jacob also thinks. “She can choose, for example, a running mate and, there, that reconfigures the race. »
At the time of writing, the Democratic Party had raised $30 million on Sunday — the highest single-day sum for the party since years. Kamala Harris also appealed for donations to support her candidacy.
It's not like we're replacing Biden with an option that's solid. She's not a strong candidate herself.
— Rafael Jacob
Towards an open convention ?
The head of the Democratic Party reaffirmed Sunday that there would be a “transparent and disciplined” process for selecting the Democratic candidate who will replace Joe Biden for president. Barack Obama, for his part, warned the Democrats who will “navigate uncharted territory in the days to come.”
For Rafael Jacob, what is happening is the equivalent of a “leap into the void” for the Democratic Party, which has “no plan B” really established. “We don’t even know what the succession process will look like,” underlines the researcher.
Karine Prémont believes that its ins and outs should be known in the coming days , with Joe Biden signaling in his letter that he would address the nation “later this week.”
The possibility of a vote to be held in early August, ahead of the convention, should be confirmed this week, says Mr. Jacob. In this case, a candidate already nominated would be endorsed at the convention in Chicago, which would serve to put him forward.
Otherwise, a vote on August 19 of the some 4,000 delegates from the Democratic Party would give rise to an “old-fashioned convention”, as it was done before the democratization of the process, continues Rafael Jacob.
« This is perhaps the most crucial piece: when will the delegates decide ?” Mr. Jacob asks.
“An open convention would certainly divide the party,” says Ms. Prémont, who judges that “ultimately, for the unity of the party, to quickly allow the mobilization of forces, this new candidate [should be] ] actually designated before.”
But four months before the November election, Joe Biden's renunciation can “turn the tide a little”, thinks the professor. “It can actually help the Democratic Party,” concludes Karine Prémont.
With Olivier Du Ruisseau