Who could replace Justin Trudeau?

Photo: Spencer Colby The Canadian Press Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Is the Trudeau era coming to an end in the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) ? Despite the gap of about twenty points that separates his party from that of Pierre Poilievre in national polls, the Prime Minister repeats that he has no intention of resigning. However, the pressure could increase this fall as the prospects of a Liberal victory diminish. Portrait of six potential successors whose names are circulating behind the scenes in Ottawa.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada

The name of the former governor of the Bank of Canada has been on the list of possible successors to Justin Trudeau at the head of the LPC for a while now. The 59-year-old banker has a lot of experience in the business world, having notably served as governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, then governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020.

“He’s not a minister: that’s both an advantage and a disadvantage. An advantage, because he’s not associated with Justin Trudeau and the current government, which is very unpopular. But, at the same time, he doesn’t really have any political experience,” emphasizes Daniel Béland, professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University, in an interview with Le Devoir.

Despite this weakness, many still see him as the ideal person to reposition the party towards the centre of the political axis, notes the man who is also director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. “Someone like Mark Carney, who is very close to the business community, could bring the Liberals back to a more centrist approach – and could seduce voters who do not really appreciate the 'Trudeau left', but who do not want to vote for the Conservatives.”

Mr. Carney himself does not hide his political aspirations. In the last year, he has multiplied his criticisms of the government and attacked the Conservative leader on a few occasions. Nothing would prevent him from making the leap into politics by aiming for the position of prime minister, “but normally, you become an MP before running for the leadership,” recalls Professor Béland.

Mark Carney completed his undergraduate studies in economics at the prestigious Harvard University. He then earned a master’s degree and a doctorate in economics at the University of Oxford in England.

Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Canada

The government’s number two, Chrystia Freeland, is another natural candidate for the Liberal leadership position if it were to become available. She would be the first woman elected leader in the history of the LPC. But one of her major problems “is that she is very, very close to Justin Trudeau. She is really his right-hand woman and has a very left-wing vision as well,” notes Daniel Béland.

She became deputy prime minister in November 2019, after the Liberals were re-elected to their first minority government. The following year, she became the first woman appointed to head the federal Department of Finance. From 2017 to 2019, she led the Department of Foreign Affairs, where she notably negotiated the renewal of the free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States.

Ms. Freeland is a woman of great experience, Professor Béland agrees. “She would be qualified, she knows the files very well. But her proximity to Justin Trudeau is perhaps her greatest handicap.”

Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Public Safety

First elected in the 2000 federal election under Jean Chrétien, then re-elected seven times, Dominic LeBlanc has more political experience than any other potential successor to Justin Trudeau.

In addition to his long-standing presence in Ottawa, the Acadian MP has the advantage of having a perfect command of both of the country’s official languages ​​without being from Quebec or Ontario, notes Daniel Béland. “For me, he would definitely be a serious candidate. Not only to become leader, but also as an opponent of Pierre Poilievre.”

Earlier this year, the Globe and Mail revealed that Minister LeBlanc had held a meeting with a former Liberal cabinet minister to prepare the groundwork for a leadership campaign. He then declared that he wanted to run in the next election under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, who is also one of his great childhood friends.

“He’s not the one we talk about the most, but he could create a surprise,” believes Professor Béland. “He's the one who would be a little underestimated at the start of the race, but who would have a lot of potential.”

Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs

Born in Montreal, Mélanie Joly first pursued a career as a lawyer before entering politics. She first entered the municipal scene in Montreal in 2013, where she ran for mayor under the banner of the True Change for Montreal party. Against all expectations, she finished second at the end of the voting, behind Denis Coderre. This new notoriety then allowed her to be elected MP for the Ahuntsic-Cartierville constituency in the 2015 federal elections, with 47% of the votes.

Or, Daniel Béland recalls that the PLC usually alternates between a French-speaking leader and an English-speaking leader. Mr. Trudeau having been MP for Papineau since 2008 and leader since 2013, tradition would therefore dictate that an anglophone would be the next to lead the party.

Minister Joly does not have as much experience as some of her cabinet colleagues and possible adversaries for the leadership, such as Minister Freeland or Minister LeBlanc, notes the professor of political science at McGill University.

Since her arrival at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2021, Mélanie Joly has had to manage several burning issues: the war in Ukraine, diplomatic tensions between India and Canada, as well as the consequences of the attack carried out by Hamas in Israel last October, in particular.

François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of 'Innovation, Science and Industry

Rumors in the corridors of parliament have it that Minister Champagne, originally from Mauricie, dreams of becoming Prime Minister of Canada .

The elected representative from Saint-Maurice–Champlain, which notably covers Shawinigan, quickly became known for his intensity and energetic statements in the House of Commons. But to have a real chance of winning the leadership, he must also make himself better known outside Quebec, believes Daniel Béland. The Liberals have every interest in choosing a leader who, like Justin Trudeau in 2015, is known as much in Quebec as in Ontario or the Atlantic provinces, explains the professor.

Since 2021, he has been at the head of the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Industry, where he manages, among other things, the food inflation files and the Northvolt plant project in Montérégie.

He has also not ruled out running for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), whose leader is to be elected on June 14, 2025.

Anita Anand, President of the Treasury Board

Many describe her as one of the ministers who has the best command of government files in the Trudeau cabinet. Since her election in 2019, Anita Anand has quickly been called upon to manage major crises, such as the purchase of personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic or Canada’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“I think the minister has a good reputation, she would be very good in the Toronto region. But in Quebec or even elsewhere in the country, I don’t know,” says Daniel Béland, according to whom the minister’s poor command of French is “her biggest handicap.” The Liberals could, however, want to put a woman at the head of the party. “It’s clear that they are counting a lot on the female vote. They are more popular on average with women than with men, so electing a woman as leader could definitely help them in a certain way.”

During the summer 2023 cabinet shuffle, Minister Anand inherited new responsibilities by becoming President of the Treasury Board. She is now working to implement $15 billion in savings within the federal public service.