Will there be a federal election this fall?

Even though the risk of new federal elections has just jumped with the announcement of the end of the agreement between the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the minority Liberal government is not yet doomed. Only a few scenarios would cause its fall in the fall, experts explain.

A motion of censure as soon as Parliament resumes

A government needs to have the confidence of the House of Commons at all times. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has already indicated that he will table a motion at the first possible opportunity to withdraw it and thus bring down the Trudeau government. He will have the opportunity to do so during an opposition day that will follow the return of Parliament on September 16.

“In this scenario, the question is: can Pierre Poilievre bring together enough NDP and Bloc members to have the support of a majority of elected officials ?” analyzes Stéphanie Chouinard, associate professor of political science at the Royal Military College in Kingston. In practice, the Conservatives need the support of NDP elected officials in addition to that of the Bloc members.

Nothing is less certain. Constantly insulted by Mr. Poilievre, the leader of the NDP, Jagmeet Singh, did not reveal Thursday whether his party intended to support such a motion. The parliamentary leader of the Bloc Québécois, Alain Therrien, for his part opened the door to collaboration with the Trudeau government in exchange for a “gain for Quebec.”

A budget vote

Any bill that requests government funding, as well as any motion on budgetary issues, puts elected officials’ trust in the government at risk. “If Parliament refuses to give the government the financial means, the government falls,” explains Geneviève Tellier, a full professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa. This means that the Trudeau government must find at least one opposition party willing to vote for its next budget, scheduled for the spring.

But that’s not all: it must also have Parliament approve its budget appropriations three times a year — and the next meeting will take place no later than December 10. Added to this is a possible vote before the end of the year on a fall economic update.

If Parliament refuses to give the government the financial means, the government falls

— Geneviève Tellier

A request from the Prime Minister

Even if it seems unlikely in the circumstances, the Prime Minister can, on his own initiative, ask the Governor General of Canada to call an election.

Justin Trudeau also has other cards up his sleeve to “show the bluff” of opposition parties that do not really want an election, explains Karl Bélanger, President of Traxxion Stratégies. “One possibility is that the Prime Minister decides to prorogue Parliament, comes back with a Speech from the Throne, which would trigger another series of confidence votes,” imagines the former NDP strategist. Doing so increases the risk of triggering an election campaign.

The Natural Death of the Mandate

If the Prime Minister so wishes, if he can find sufficient support for his next budget and if the opposition parties cannot agree on a motion of censure, his mandate could go to its end. The law sets the date of the next federal election as October 20, 2025 at the latest; the choice of the exact timing, however, is the government's prerogative.