Electricity prices: who will pay more and who will pay less ? The scenarios that are emerging

The electricity bill will vary for households in a few weeks? Up or down? This depends on several factors.

This is a subject that is the subject of a salvo of various announcements from which it is difficult to disentangle oneself: what will be the evolution of the price of electricity in the weeks to come? coming ? The main projections are optimistic for household finances since a promise was made that the bill would soon decrease. However, this would not concern everyone: "80% of French people" according to Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson. What about the remaining 20% ? Will they see the bill increase ?

There are several elements to take into account regarding the future amounts to be paid to Engie, EDF or TotalEnergies: the cost of electricity alone and the cost of additional taxes, but also the type of contract the person has subscribed to. That is the whole difficulty. The different elements mentioned above do not evolve in the same way. One will go down, the other will go up… And again, the evolution will not be the same on all contracts.

Overall, the trend that is emerging is as follows: first, in November 2024, a slight increase will be applied to some consumers. Then, in February 2025, the bill should drop by around 10% for the vast majority of French people. This is due to the drop in the cost of producing electricity. However, at the same time, the government plans to significantly increase a tax. Consequence: the decrease will be there, but it will be less than if taxation were maintained at its current level.

Latest updates

19:49 – How much will the increase in this tax cost me ?

For a 60m2 apartment (consumption of 4800KwH/year), the annual amount of the TICFE will increase from 120 to 230 euros. For a 100m2 house (10000KwH/year), it will increase from 250 to 480 euros per year. These are the average consumption levels established by Engie according to the types of housing. However, most households should not feel the effects of this tax increase. Indeed, the government states that the pure cost of electricity will decrease so much at the beginning of the year that, despite the surge in tax, the bill will still go down.

19:06 – A tax on electricity about to double

The electricity bill is broken down into several parts: the pure price of electricity, the costs related to the electricity network and its maintenance, as well as a tax collected by the State. This tax, the TICFE (or CSPE, its other name), represented almost nothing on the total to be paid: it had been reduced to 1 euro/MwH to compensate for the increase in the cost of producing and transporting electricity. Now that these have decreased, the State wants to fill its coffers again. Raised to 21 euro/MwH, it was to rise to 32 euro/MwH on February 1, its level before the start of the war in Ukraine. But Michel Barnier wants to go much further. According to Les Echos, the Prime Minister wants to increase the cost of this tax to 40 or 42 euros/MwH in 2025 in order to obtain additional revenue for the state budget. This new amount could come into effect on February 1.

18:08 – Why do some prices change on November 1 and others on February 1 ?

In fact, it depends on the contracts. If it is a contract with a market offer, the evolution of prices and taxes can be done at any time, according to the market.

On the other hand, for contracts at the regulated electricity sales rate, the revision of the cost of electricity is only done twice a year: on February 1 and August 1 of each year. This year, these French people could also have seen their bill increase on November 1st due to the increase in the TURPE tax (read below).

However, in order to avoid too many variations, the government has decided to postpone this increase until February 1st so that it is painless for households: as the cost of producing electricity could fall significantly at that time, this slight increase (4.81%) will be absorbed. The bill will still go down. The shift therefore did not occur. decided only by "comfort".

17:47 – Who will benefit from the drop in the cost of electricity from February ? 

In concrete terms, it is customers subscribed to the regulated electricity sales rate who will benefit from this reduction, whether they are on the blue tariff, the Tempo offer or the peak/off-peak hours system. In addition, French people who subscribe to a market offer indexed to the regulated tariff are also concerned. In total, a little over 30 million people are concerned.

17:31 – I read that the price of electricity was going to drop at the beginning of 2025: what about it? ?

That's right. In February, the price of electricity will drop for most French people. This will be due to the drop in the cost of producing energy: electricity will be cheaper and this will be felt on the bill. Around 10% drop is expected for most French people, but not all. Just a little more patience…

16:57 – How much more will this cost the households concerned ?

To estimate the amount of the future bill, simply take the last due date received and read the line below “Total electricity including tax”. Entitled “of which XX euros excluding tax paid to your distributor for the transport of “electricity”” (on Engie bills in particular), this is the one that will increase by 4.81%. Although my calculation mechanism between excluding tax and including tax is a little complex, overall, the amount to pay to the supplier will increase by about 1%. For example, on a bill of 180 euros which includes 27 euros for delivery, the total will only increase by about… 1 euro.

16:42 – Who will pay more from November 1st ?

Around 10 million French people are affected by this increase. These are those who have a contract with market offers or with a “fixed price”. On this last type of contract, only the price of electricity is fixed: not that of taxes and additional tariffs. All others who have a contract with the regulated sales tariff will not be affected on November 1st.

16:35 – An increase in the price of electricity November 1st for some French people

As of November 1st, the price of electricity will increase. Or, more precisely, the cost of maintaining the electricity network. These costs are in fact distributed over the various lines of the bill: subscription, consumption and transport tariff contribution. These are sums that suppliers must pay to managers (i.e., mainly, Engie and others at Enedis). However, suppliers do not take this money out of their own pockets: they apply this excess to customers' bills. This is what is called the Tariff for the use of the public electricity network (TURPE). Next month, its amount will increase by 4.81%. Suppliers could have not passed on this increase to the bill. However, Engie announced to Linternaute that “unfortunately we have no choice but to pass on the increase in this TURPE to our customers given the regulatory and financial constraints.” TotalEnergies did not respond to us. But not all French people will be affected.