Photo: Paul Sancya Associated Press When these swing states have a large number of votes in the Electoral College, they can have a significant impact on the election, says Professor Emily Regan Wills.
Magdaline Boutros
Published at 10:33 Updated at 13:30
- United States
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The expression “key states” is often used, can you provide me with as detailed a definition as possible?
— Robert Bourdeau, one of our readers
Could the attitude of the United States in the Israel-Hamas conflict influence certain states like Michigan?
— René Chémaly, one of our readers
The terms “key states” or “swing states” come up often in election coverage. They refer to the American states that are neither Republican nor Democratic and that could therefore “swing” the election – hence the term “ swing states” in English.
Seven states are considered pivotal for the presidential election on November 5, 2024: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada.
Le Devoir has asked American professor Emily Regan Wills, who teaches comparative politics at the University of Ottawa, to enlighten us. Here is our interview.
What is a Keystone State?
Keystone states are those where a very narrow margin separates the two parties in the presidential election. In the American electoral system, the president is chosen by the Electoral College, in which each state has a number of votes proportional to its size. For all but two states, it is a “winner-take-all” or “ winner-take-all” system, so that if a candidate wins by a very narrow margin, he or she still receives 100% of the votes in that state.
For further information
- Interactive | Which Side Will Swing States Vote On ? Test Potential Scenarios for the November 5 Election!
- How Electors Have Been Chosen for Nearly 250 Years ?
- See what our reporters have to say about local issues in different states
When these states have a large number of votes in the Electoral College, they can have a dramatic effect on the election—since a candidate who wins a few key states by just a few votes can easily win the presidency even if fewer people voted for him or her overall.
Do key states change from election to election? the other ?
Yes, swing states evolve over time. For example, Florida was considered a swing state since its role in the controversial 2000 election, but [it is no longer] because Trump won Florida handily in 2016 and 2020, and he is in a good position right now.
Michigan and Arizona have gotten a lot more attention since 2016, since Trump’s election in Michigan played a major role in his 2016 victory, and both states played a critical role in Biden’s 2020 victory, as well as Harris’s 2024 strategy.
There are common characteristics that swing states have, such as being large enough to have enough electoral votes to warrant an intense campaign. This would not matter if, for example, the margin between the candidates in Delaware was very slim, because Delaware has only three electoral votes, the minimum for a state.
Most swing states also have some balance in their populations between residents of large cities (who tend to vote Democratic) and those in suburban and rural areas (who tend to vote Republican). […]
Among the seven key states in the 2024 election, are there any that are more important than others??
I have to admit that I follow Pennsylvania closely: it’s my home state, and the political dynamics there have been very interesting in recent years.
Michigan is also particularly important to this race, as it is the only state where Arab-American voters are in sufficient numbers to significantly influence the outcome of the election. Although they have consistently voted for Democrats since the early 2000s, they are very unhappy with the Biden administration [because of its position] on Israel’s war in Gaza. […]
Georgia and Arizona are also of interest to me, as they are states that have historically voted Republican, but which, thanks in part to increased voter mobilization among racialized communities, are starting to shift. […]
Are these states getting more attention and therefore more promises and money to solve their problems? ?
Certainly, swing states get more attention during election season.
For example, when I lived in Connecticut (a solidly Democratic state), presidential candidates rarely campaigned there, and when I lived in New York (also solidly Democratic and the third-largest Electoral College vote-getter), their campaigns focused primarily on fundraising from big donors. There were few political ads on television, and most of them were for local candidates.
But in Pennsylvania, the focus on the election is constant throughout the presidential election cycle. When I was watching television in Philadelphia in August, it was common for three or four ads for Harris or Trump to air in a single commercial break, either from their own campaigns or from political action committees.
Whether this translates into benefits outside of the election season is more complicated. Much of federal spending is dictated by Congress, where all the representatives and senators are trying to get money for their districts.
However, political scientists Douglas L. Kriner and Andrew Reeves have done some interesting research that shows that, yes, counties in areas with high electoral competition receive more funding than those in “safe” districts, and that this has exactly the desired effect on voters: they are more likely to support a candidate who invests in their community than a candidate who doesn’t.
This interview has been edited for brevity.
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