Kamala Harris: Polls, programs… Fragile results, too weak to win the presidential election ?

With just a few weeks to go until the US presidential election, Kamala Harris remains at the top of the national polls, but Donald Trump is lying in wait. The Democrat must make sure she wins the swing states if she hopes to win the election.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are facing off in an election campaign that promises to be tight until the American presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024. The Democratic candidate, officially sworn in in August after Joe Biden's withdrawal, has a slight lead in the race for the White House but victory is far from assured. According to the compilation of the latest polls carried out by 270towin, the current vice-president of the United States is leading by about 2 points ahead of Donald Trump, but the latter has been reducing the gap in recent days.

The candidate and the Democratic camp must resist the various attacks from the Republican billionaire, which are more or less well-founded. The former American president combines personal attacks – he has several times called his rival “crazy” -, political criticism and manipulation of current events to discredit the Democratic vice-president. “This is someone who is going to steal your fortune and leave you and your family when the waters rise,” he said after two hurricanes, Helen and Milton, hit the southeastern United States, including several swing states like North Carolina and Georgia. The Republican candidate responds to each attack and hits back at Donald Trump by questioning his mental health, after publishing a review of his proposed neurological results, or by attacking his economic and social policies. In the game of verbal jousting, Kamala Harris proved to be formidable and even won the only debate between the two candidates for the White House.

Since entering the race for the American presidency, Kamala Harris has come out on top in most national polls. A trend that is still visible in mid-October, less than a month before the election, with a lead of between 1 and 3 points over Donald Trump. But the results are much closer in the polls conducted in each state, particularly in the seven “swing states” which are expected to be decisive for the election. According to the American voting system, each state won guarantees a certain number of votes in the 538 electors who vote to elect the American president and the "swing states" capable of switching from one camp to the other over the course of the elections will play a key role.

Kamala Harris held the lead in the polls by state in the majority of swing states with a 0.5 to 4 point lead, but since mid-October the balance has changed and the Democratic candidate has fallen back, giving Donald Trump the opportunity to take the lead. But the results by state have not yet stabilized, with less than a point separating the two candidates in the seven swing states. Here are the ten or so states to follow: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, but also to a lesser extent Florida, New Mexico and Minnesota.

Kamala Harris is basing part of her campaign on selected points from her program. The Democratic candidate has made the defense of purchasing power for the middle classes her hobby horse along with abortion rights, always taking care to distinguish herself from Donald Trump's policy. But several political commentators criticize her for remaining on the surface by citing flagship measures without tackling the substance of certain issues.

• Economy: Kamala Harris promises to defend the purchasing power of Americans who are suffering from inflation and tensions in the employment and real estate sectors. She claims to want to “give money back to middle- and working-class families” while Donald Trump is fighting “for billionaires and big business”. Among her strong measures: a birth tax credit, assistance for first-time buyers to housing, assistance for business creation, price controls on basic necessities and medicines. It sets the target of reducing inflation by 3%.
• Immigration: the Democrat is playing a balancing act by being firm to attract the moderate right, but not too hard to scare off the left, but she has announced a hardening of migration policy involving “consequences” for illegal migrants and investments in physical barriers at the border with Mexico.
• International: Kamala Harris reaffirms US support for Ukraine after the Russian invasion. As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, she reiterates her commitment to the defense of the Hebrew state and does not plan to suspend American arms deliveries, but she wants to appear less pro-Israeli than Joe Biden, has condemned the violence against Palestinian civilians and advocates for a "ceasefire".
• Social policy: Kamala Harris has mainly placed social issues at the heart of her campaign, starting with the right to abortion in the face of a Republican camp at the origin of the tightening of access to abortion in several states. The defense of minorities is also a central point of the campaign. The Democrat also mentions ecology to distance herself from Donald Trump without specifying specific measures to protect the environment. In the wake of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris says she is in favor of the inflation reduction act (IRA), a set of ecological, economic and social measures.

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How and why Harris targets the Latino electorate

Friday October 18.&amp ;nbsp;By featuring singer-songwriter Marc Anthony in her campaign, Kamala Harris is targeting Latino voters three weeks before the election, a key demographic for winning the U.S. presidential election. In the ad, titled “Recuerdo,” Anthony explains why he supports Vice President Harris while criticizing Donald Trump for his record in handling Hurricane Maria and his rhetoric toward the Latino community. “I remember after Hurricane Maria devastated our island, Trump withheld billions of dollars in relief while thousands died. I remember when our families were without clean water and electricity, Trump was throwing paper towels and calling Puerto Rico 'dirty and poor,'” Anthony said in the ad. A powerful endorsement that could prove decisive for Kamala Harris in the race to the White House. 

All the more so since Latin Americans represent more than 20% of the population of the United States, or 62.5 million people. And this year, 36.2 million of them are eligible to vote, or 4 million more than in the last election, specifies Le Parisien. This is also why Kamala Harris wants to target this population as the deadline approaches. In some swing states, the states that will decide the outcome of the election, Latin Americans also represent a significant portion of voters, as in Arizona. “Each party has its target groups that need to be nibbled away at,” explains Lauric Henneton, who points out that George W. Bush won the White House with nearly 40% of the Latino vote. You only need 35 to 40% of this electorate to make a difference,” he explains in the columns of Le Parisien. 

Kamala Harris pays pro-Trump activists at her rally

Friday, October 18.Kamala Harris shut up several pro-Trump activists and the scene caused a lot of laughter in the Democratic camp. While the Democratic candidate gave a rally in Wisconsin on Thursday, October 17, a handful of Republican voters joined the rally to play the hecklers. The latter made themselves heard when Kamala Harris brought up the subject of abortion health and Donald Trump's decision to nominate three Supreme Court justices who participated in à the overturning of Roe v. Wade. But the disruptions didn't last long, with the activists themselves being mocked by the vice president. As soon as the boos were heard, Kamala Harris shot back at the hecklers: “Oh, guys, you've got the wrong rally! I think you meant to go to the smaller rally down the street.”

A retort that hit the mark and sparked thunderous applause from the audience. The video clip relayed on the internet led to many favorable reactions to Kamala Harris. “I would vote for her just for “that” wrote one internet user, while another praised an “Obama-style humor”. The arrival of these pro-Trump activists who thought they would ruin Kamala Harris' meeting ultimately highlighted the Democratic candidate. Especially since Wisconsin is a swing state that usually leans more towards the Democrat, but Donald Trump had succeeded in winning the state in 2016. It was the first Republican victory in 30 years.

“My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's”

< strong>Thursday October 17 Kamala Harris ended by emphasizing the difference between her presidency if she wins on November 5 and the one Joe Biden has led for the past four years. “I want to be very clear: My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency,” he said during his interview on Fox News last night. “Like any new president who comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, my professional experiences, and new and original ideas,” she added again.

A new speech for the Democratic candidate who has never shown any disagreement with Joe Biden's policy during the last term and who has shown herself to be very loyal to the American president since the start of the campaign. A new feature that the journalist from the ultra-conservative channel did not fail to highlight. He also broadcast excerpts from recent interviews in which Kamala Harris says she is in line with Joe Biden's political decisions. Example with the interview of the Democratic candidate on ABC last week: asked about what she would have done differently from Joe Biden, Kamala Harris responded that “nothing comes to [her] mind”.

Yet on Fox News, she insisted on several differences, including the political backgrounds of the two Democrats. “I didn't spend the majority of my career in Washington,” she said, recalling her career as governor in California, the progressive state par excellence but far from the mysteries of national power. She also recalled her openness, which she wants to be greater than that of Joe Biden, she who promised to include moderate Republicans in his administration. She also indicated having spoken with anti-Trump Republicans before her interview. Overall, Kamala Harris says she wants to “represent a new generation of leaders” after octogenarian Joe Biden and facing 78-year-old Donald Trump. She will celebrate her 60th birthday on October 20. 

Kamala Harris on Fox News: A strategy that pays off for the Democrat

Thursday October 17.Vanity Fair.