After two rainy months, will calmer weather emerge in the next quarter?? The first trends for the months of November, December and January have been announced.
After September and October with excess precipitation, at what to expect for the end of autumn and the beginning of winter ? According to La Chaine Météo, an "optimistic" scenario is emerging for the beginning of November with a swelling of the anticyclone, bringing calmer weather, i.e. sunshine. The fog will however be persistent in the morning.
In mid-November, the weather could deteriorate, “with little hope of a lasting dry spell”, according to the forecast site. The regions close to the Channel and the Mediterranean rim could be the most affected by the disturbances. Over the month, a 10% excess of precipitation is therefore expected. In terms of temperatures, mildness should remain the order of the day, an early cold is not to be expected. the agenda.
Over the next two months, La Chaine Météo, in its seasonal forecasts, estimates that temperatures will generally be slightly above seasonal norms, with between +0.5 and +1°C. A slowdown in rainy episodes compared to the previous two months is also expected.
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© La Chaine Météo
In December, France could even experience a slight precipitation deficit (-5%). This does not mean that it will not rain, but that the rains will be less abundant than the average for this period. No major cold weather is, for the moment, announced for the last month of the year, with even a risk of a lack of snow in the mountains for skiers. Temperatures would remain seasonal, with pronounced coolness at night and freezing fog.
In its three-month forecasts, Météo-France confirms that the most likely scenario for temperatures is that they will be warmer than seasonal norms or at least in line with them. For precipitation, drier weather is also expected, particularly in the west of the country.
However, low pressure systems could return as early as January. Heavy precipitation and storm risks are possible, with excess precipitation estimated at +40%, particularly in the east of the country. Snow could again be lacking at mid-altitude, following temperatures above seasonal norms.
The reliability of these forecasts is currently limited given the anticipation of lead times. These are first trends, based on the analysis of the predominant signals from weather models.