Municipal elections in Brazil: new test for Lula and Bolsonaro in the second round

Nearly 34 million voters in 51 Brazilian cities are called eacute;s to the polls on Sunday for the second round of municipal elections, a test for the country's main leaders, the left-wing President Lula and his far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, ahead of the 2026 presidential election.

The first round, on October 6, was largely favorable to the right, even if the left maintains the hope of winning in important cities.

“The main issue in this second round is the redistribution of the cards of power between the main right-wing and centre-right parties in Brazil,” which already have a large majority in Parliament, Geraldo Monteiro, a professor of political science at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), told AFP.

In Sao Paulo, the largest metropolis in Latin America, the outgoing mayor Ricardo Nunes, supported by Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), is the favourite against Guilherme Boulos, the candidate endorsed by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Sao Paulo Mayor and re-election candidate Ricardo Nunes (R) and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro talk during a campaign rally in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on October 22, 2024 © AFP – Nelson ALMEIDA

The latest poll by the Datafolha institute, published Saturday evening, credits Mr. Nunes with 57% of voting intentions, compared to 43% for his left-wing opponent.

Unlike in the first round, Lula was unable to campaign alongside Mr. Boulos on the eve of the election because he remained in Brasilia for health reasons.

The head of state, who turns 79 on Sunday, suffered a domestic accident a week ago, hitting the back of his head when he fell into the toilet.

He will therefore not be able to vote on Sunday in Sao Bernardo do Campo, a suburban city of Sao Paulo where he is registered on the electoral lists, and where the candidate of his party, the Workers' Party (PT), was eliminated in the first round.

– Suspense in nine state capitals –

The second round only concerns cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants where no candidate obtained an absolute majority of the votes three weeks ago.

In Rio de Janeiro, the Centrist Eduardo Paes, supported by Lula, was re-elected for a fourth term in the first round.

Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes, October 6, 2024, leaving a polling station © AFP – PABLO PORCIUNCULA

But in 15 other Brazilian state capitals, the final result will not be known until this Sunday, and polls predict a close election in nine of them.

In Fortaleza (northeast) and Cuiaba (central-west), the second round is a duel between candidates from Lula's PT and Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL).

In the Amazonian city of Belem (north), which will host the UN climate conference COP30 in 2025, centrist Igor Normando is opposed to Bolsonarist Eder Mauro, a notorious climate skeptic.

The PL had been one of the big winners on October 6, electing two mayors in the first round and placing nine candidates in the second in the state capitals.

– Contested leadership –

But that does not necessarily mean that Mr. Bolsonaro is unanimous in the conservative camp.

Some figures criticized him for his lack of involvement in the campaign for Ricardo Nunes in Sao Paulo, such as influential evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, who called the far-right ex-president a “coward” and a “nutty leader.”

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves during a ceremony at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on October 25 2024 © AFP – EVARISTO SA

The Bolsonarista electorate was divided, with some preferring the provocative profile of ultra-conservative influencer Pablo Marçal, who narrowly missed out on qualifying for the second round.

Mr. Nunes' arrival at the top of the first round is mainly attributed to the strong support of Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a former minister under Jair Bolsonaro who is tipped to represent the right in the 2026 presidential election.

Mr. Bolsonaro is ineligible until 2030 for unproven attacks on the electoral system, although he still hopes to have this conviction overturned.

Lula, for his part, still leaves doubts hanging over a possible attempt at re-election for a fourth term.

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