USA. The poll results on this presidential election are now very clear: everything will be decided in the “Swing States”. And the trend is in favor of Donald Trump in most of them.
The American presidential election of November 5, 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in history. The polls are extremely close: national voting intentions give a slight advantage to the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, but given the voting system, that doesn't mean much. It's important to understand that elections are won by winning the votes of the “electors,” at least 270 to reach the White House. And they are won by winning the vote in each state.
It is therefore in the most undecided states that this 2024 presidential election is being played out. And Donald Trump has a slight advantage in these states, called “swing states”, making him the candidate with the best momentum. The trend that emerges in the money time is a consolidation of the increase in pro-Trump voting intentions in three of them. Be careful, the results of the polls in the other swing states are almost all within the margin of error and the models are not robust enough to provide certainty. The latest surveys indicate that undecided voters are leaning more toward Kamala Harris, but observers also know that the models tend to underestimate the Trump vote.
What are the poll results between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris ?
The chart below compiles the largest national polls, in voting intentions, conducted on the American elections. Kamala Harris had a clear advantage in September, which has melted away since the second half of October, according to the results of the very latest polls.
Since the American election is actually played out state by state, these are the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election.
Polls vary easily from one day to the next. Here is what the polls show in each state at this stage, with the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gives the projections of the votes of Democrats and Republicans, updated daily on Linternaute.com:
The United States is a very divided country politically, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others who traditionally vote Republican, such as Montana or the Midwestern states.
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In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to swing their territory to either candidate. These “swing states” are therefore the most targeted by presidential candidates, because whoever wins the election in the main ones generally wins the election. For now, in the 7 most important, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, with an increasingly pronounced advantage for the Republican.
The results of the polls in each state make it possible to identify the states where each candidate is sure to win and to consider that the outcome of the vote will be decided in the following 7 states: Pennsylvania, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (10 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes). If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electors, she will be elected president. Donald Trump needs 51 electors among these 7 states to win this presidential election. Here are the voting intentions in the most important Swing States, according to the compilation of Real Clear Politics, on October 31, 2024:
The user offers below an infographic measuring the chances of victory of the two candidates in the 2024 American elections. The probability of victory is calculated on a model based on 25,000 daily simulations, carried out by 270towin. The result, which is only an indicator and not a prediction of victory, is based on polls carried out in all American states and on a calculation of the percentage of overall victories for each state. The 270towiun model allows us to establish to what extent a victory in a state allows a candidate to win the final election. For example, a victory in Pennsylvania is necessary in 90.3% of simulations that result in a candidate winning. This estimation is carried out in all states of the country to arrive at a probability at the national level.
Be careful, the barometer gives a trend, but above all shows that the election is very uncertain. If a candidate only has a 40% chance of winning the election, it must be kept in mind that this is already a high probability. of victory, even if it is lower than that estimated for his opponent.
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A clear trend is emerging: the election will be decided in Pennsylvania
October 31 – What uncertainty! It is in a very thick fog on the verdict of this American election 2024 that a trend is still emerging: the voters of the 7 Swing States clearly have the fate of this presidential election in their hands. The latest surveys in these states now reveal an electoral fact, as analyzed by the American media Forbes: Kamala Harris has an advantage in the Swing States Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump is now given winner in the swing states of the Southeast and Arizona. Which means that the outcome of the entire election is decided in the state of Pennsylvania, which gives the winner 19 at-large seats.
According to the most recent polls, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage in Pennsylvania. If we follow the lessons of the emerging trend, he therefore appears to benefit from a slight advantage (Trump is given 47% to 46% in a Quinnipiac poll, 47%-46% in a Monmouth poll, and the Republican is ahead of the Democrat by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average). The fact remains that the gap is too small to say that Donald Trump is the favorite in these elections, all of this remains within the margins of error of the polling models.
Pennsylvania is a very divided state politically. In Philadelphia, the state capital and the sixth-largest city in the United States, 80% of residents voted for Biden four years ago. These urban dwellers remain overwhelmingly Democrats. But in the campaign, it is clearly Donald Trump who is leading the voting intentions. So everything could be decided in the mid-urban, mid-rural counties like Northampton. It is not impossible that this territory will be the key to the results of this election.
A poll with rather encouraging results for Kamala Harris
October 30, 2024– The latest New York Times/Siena College poll has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris at 48 percent nationally, which isn't really a determining factor, since the election is played out in the swing stats. But according to this study, Kamala Harris has a clearer margin of progression than Donald Trump is estimated to have. About 15 percent of voters still say they are undecided. a few days before the vote, but these citizens are still more inclined to vote for the Democratic candidate: Kamala Harris is in fact in the lead in this electoral group, with 42% against 32% of voting intentions. Just two weeks ago, it was Donald Trump who had a slight lead among undecided voters, with 36% against 35%.
The percentage of Americans who believe that Mr. Trump, 78, is too old to be president remains at 41%, virtually unchanged from the July survey, even after a series of disjointed campaign speeches that have sparked a wave of questions.
The New York Times/Siena College poll also gives a trend on the 9% of Americans who have already voted: estimates of these 20 million or so votes lean heavily in favor of Kamala Harris, 59% to 40% according to the poll conducted on a representative sample. This is not surprising, since it corresponds to the advantage that Democrats have historically enjoyed on early voting and mail-in voting, although there are signs that this year, unlike in 2020, Republicans are voting early in unusually high numbers.
The poll also shows that the vote is shaping up to be very gendered : Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump among women, with voting intentions of around 54% against 42%, while Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris among men, with voting intentions of 55% against 41%.
For Kamala or against Trump ? The enlightening results of a poll on the Democratic vote
October 29 – This presidential election is clearly not like the previous ones, as the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House arouses the radical rejection of a large part of Americans. If the billionaire collects nearly 50% of voting intentions – like his rival – the Democrats are much more numerous in fearing a defeat of their camp. This is reflected in the polls: a CNN survey sheds light on this point. If Donald Trump's supporters vote to “express their support” to the Republican (73%) rather than to “express opposition” to Kamala Harris (27%), 45% of Kamala Harris voters say they are voting for her primarily to “block Donald Trump”.
This survey of all American voters, all parties combined, also reveals a general perception of the candidates. According to Americans, Kamala Harris, more than Donald Trump, cares about “people like them” (43% Harris vs. 37% Trump), is “honest” and “trustworthy” (41% Harris vs. 29% Trump) and “will put the interests of the country before her own” (45% Harris vs. 39% Trump). Donald Trump is seen as having more qualities to “bring the kind of change the country needs” (44% Trump vs. 38% Harris). A point that could be predominant for this American presidential election, while the country is affected by a crisis of purchasing power and a crisis of confidence. According to this same survey, in fact, 49% of citizens declare that their financial situation is “worse today than a year ago”; only 32% believe that “things are going well in the United States today”.
October 28– À 8 days before the American presidential election, 32 million voters have already cast their ballots thanks to early voting, in the 47 out of 50 states that can already vote by mail or even in advance. These millions of votes have been recorded and even if we do not know which one was the ballot cast by each voter, we know which side each voter has claimed to belong to. Why ? Because in the United States, when you register on an electoral list, you declare your political affiliation. According to the first count, therefore, we can say that 42% of these early votes come from Democrats, 40% from Republicans and 18% from independents. Of course, nothing prevents a voter registered as a “democrat” from voting Republican and vice versa when he or she votes at the polls.
In recent days, groups of “anti-Trump” Republicans have joined Kamala Harris' campaign, demanding a vote in favor of the Democrat, even if they do not share the ideas of the current vice president. These Republicans who refuse to vote for the billionaire indicate in the American media that the latter's election would constitute a threat to the country. It is unclear what impact these upset Republicans may have on the campaign and the results, particularly in the Swing States.
Early Votes for Donald Trump ?
27 million Americans have already voted early according to the NY Times and it's a record. The vote is on November 5, some prefer to go there before so as not to risk missing the date or not being able to go due to professional obligations in particular. In North Carolina, 30% of the state's voters have already voted early. To register to vote in the United States, you must register as a Republican, Democrat, or Independent. As explained by BFMTV, this allows us to have statistics on who voted early. With 12 days to go, Republican voters have massively used this early vote, whereas usually, it is more Democrats. These first votes could therefore for the moment be more in favor of Donald Trump. In any case, it shows a strong mobilization of the Republican electorate.
Donald Trump called on his voters to go to the polls early whereas he had held an opposite discourse in 2020, considering that it was “cheating”. The Republican candidate does not intend to deprive himself of every potential voter this time. CNN reported 3% of undecided voters, which could also explain this massive early vote.
In recent days, the poll results have been tightening. On Thursday, October 24, the American channel CNBC estimated that Donald Trump now has a 48% chance of winning compared to 46% for Kamala Harris. While not all the polls give the advantage to Donald Trump, the latter still seems to be making progress, especially in the Swing States.
The Navajo vote could swing the result in Arizona
October 25 – Arizona is one of the key states in this presidential election. The result of the vote could be close as in 2020. Joe Biden had, in fact, beaten Donald Trump by only 10,500 votes, or 0.3% of the vote. One people has great importance in this state, the Navajos. They are the largest tribe in Arizona with 131,000 members. They represent 5% of the electorate. In an election that promises to be so close, this is a vote that cannot be overlooked.
However, a 2024 report from the Democrats on the House Administration Committee found that they faced difficulties in voting, particularly given the distances they had to travel to cast their ballots and also due to language issues. Despite this, more and more of them are trying to participate in the vote because the people have strong demands. They want candidates to take their community into greater account, some of which still have difficulty accessing water or electricity. Navajo involvement in voting is also marked by a claim to their rights. They only gained the right to vote a century ago.
Donald Trump may be at a disadvantage in winning over this tribe. In 2017, he made the decision to allow uranium mining on protected lands, even though the people hold their territory dear. The environment is also a sensitive chord for the Navajos.
This criterion that will count for a lot for one in seven Americans
According to a US survey conducted by the Digital Chamber called “Crypto Voting Bloc”, cryptocurrency will play a significant role in voters' voting. They expect action from candidates. One in 16 potential voters, or 16% of voters, believe that cryptocurrency policy “will significantly influence their vote in the 2024 elections”. There are Democrats as well as Republicans.
21% of Donald Trump supporters believe the Republican “strongly supports crypto” and 19% believe the former president “supports crypto”. As for Kamala Harris supporters, 15% believe the Democratic candidate “strongly supports crypto” and 6% of them say she “supports crypto”.
According to the survey, “voters are sending a clear message: They want smart, “balanced” regulation that protects consumers without “stifling innovation”.” According to the survey, “pro-crypto candidates” may have an advantage in the polls. 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans, in fact, said that a candidate's position on crypto “would have a positive impact on their likelihood of voting for them.”
Latino Vote, a Major Issue in Nevada
October 24– Nevada is one of the key states at the heart of the election, it has six of the country's 538 major electoral colleges. Voters have been able to vote early since last Saturday. Nevada, which was acquired by the Republicans, has changed sides in the last four presidential elections. In the 2020 election, the gap was very tight. and the Democratic victory was decided by 34,000 votes. In the polls for 2024, Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of her rival in this state: 47.55% against 47.07%. However, everything can still change. According to data from the nonprofit organization Independent Voter Project, more than one in three voters in Nevada is, in fact, not affiliated with either party of the main candidates. The state's largest union, the Culinary Union, is backing Harris this year, however.
In this state, the major issue for the candidates is the Latino community, representing 30% of the inhabitants and 20% of the electorate. Their vote is often very divided and gradually scraped away by the Republicans, even if it remains predominantly Democratic.
The main campaign theme in Nevada revolves around the economy. Its industry depends largely on hotels and restaurants, particularly Las Vegas, and has been hit hard by the Covid crisis, still struggling to fully recover. Both candidates then proposed eliminating taxes on tips for those who work in these sectors. The country is also undermined by a housing crisis with many newcomers and therefore increasing rents.
Jewish voters could swing the Pennsylvania election… and the general election
October 23 – As CNN reports, American voters of Jewish faith or culture are very much in demand for candidates in this 2024 American election. Traditionally, the Jewish electorate is significantly more Democratic, and has been for generations. But current events and the war of retaliation waged by Israel against Hamas in Gaza and the unrest it has triggered, including protests and a surge in anti-Semitic incidents, are being highlighted by Republicans, who are hammering home to Jewish voters their promise of security and the promise that Donald Trump will end the conflict.
In an election that will likely be decided by tens of thousands of votes and in a few key states, the votes of Pennsylvania's Jewish voters could be decisive. The American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University estimates that there are about 300,000 Jewish voters in the state of Pennsylvania. Matt Brooks, chairman of the Republican Jewish Coalition, is convinced that the election could swing in Pennsylvania: “The choice is clear. “You don't have to like Donald Trump, but Donald Trump will keep the Jewish community safe,” he said on CNN.
Already 15 million voters at the presidential election.. and a trend
October 22 – According to the independent organization Elections Project, more than 15 million Americans have already voted in the 2024 U.S. election since October 15. Voting has opened for those who chose to participate in this election by mail or early voting, ahead of November 5. According to the Elections Project, the number is not insignificant: we have already reached 10% of the total turnout for the 2020 election. Observers noted record turnouts for these first days of early voting, particularly in North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana.
This early vote appears to benefit the Democratic camp, according to the results of a poll conducted by Suffolk University for the media USA Today. According to this survey, Kamala Harris benefits from broad support among people who voted upstream, in North Carolina: she would have collected 63% of the votes against 34% for Donald Trump in this strategic state. But the Republican could quickly make up his delay: among those who plan to vote on November 5, Donald Trump is ahead with 52% of voting intentions against 35% for Harris. There is no indication that the voters who have already pronounced would not have gone to the polls on November 5: it is likely that this upstream vote mainly reflects a new voting habit, taken up during the Covid crisis during the previous election, which therefore seems to continue.
A major poll in the swing states indicates that the election will be… tight
October 22 – The surveys have been similar for weeks: everything indicates that the election will be very close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Since everything will be played out in the 7 states considered swing states, the Washington Post-Schar School conducted a study of more than 5,000 registered voters in these 7 states, carried out in mid-October. The results released on October 22 reveal that 47% of them will definitely or probably support Harris, while 47% say they will definitely or probably support Trump. Among voters who are somewhat certain to vote, 49% support Harris and 48% support Trump.
The rate of voters saying they do not plan to vote in these states has fallen from 42% to 26% over the past five months. Younger voters are more likely not to vote in the 2024 US presidential election: 43% of 18-25 year-olds do not plan to vote at this stage. Non-white voters are more likely not to vote than white voters: 34% compared to 23%.
Harris has a better image than Trump in the United States, according to a poll
The 21 October– Kamala Harris is viewed more favorably than Donald Trump by U.S. citizens, including among independent voters who could decide the outcome of the election in the seven swing states, according to a poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and published on October 21. The poll shows fewer Americans than they did a few months ago think Donald Trump is better on economic issues. “Harris and his running mate, Tim Walz, are viewed more positively than either Trump or J.D. Vance. A large majority of Democratic voters have a positive view of Harris and Walz, and Republican voters have a favorable view of Trump and Vance. “Independent voters are very divided in their opinion of Harris, while most have a negative opinion of Trump,” the study said.
40% of registered voters trust Kamala Harris to improve their purchasing power, including reducing the cost of groceries and gas, and 42% trust Trump on that issue. 6% trust both equally, and 12% trust neither. On housing costs, Kamala Harris has the highest voter confidence, with 42% support compared to just 37% for Trump.
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Who Votes for Kamala Harris ? Who Votes for Donald Trump ?
Studies conducted on electoral sociology in the US highlight clear divisions between supporters of Kamala Harris and those of Donald Trump. The Pew Research Center, in a study published in September, highlights this:
- Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) to Harris (46%), while the reverse is true for women.
- Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris (84%). Narrower majorities of Asian (61%) and Hispanic (57%) voters also support Harris. A majority of white voters (56%) support Trump.
- 53% of voters without a college degree are voting for Trump vs. 44% for Harris, with the Democrat leading the way among voters with four years of college or more (57% vs. 41%).
- Voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than for Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than for Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than for Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than for Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than for Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than for Trump (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (53%) than for Harris (44%), while voters under 50 are more likely to vote for Harris (53%) than for Trump … Harris (44%). 50 and over support Trump rather than Harris (53% versus 46%).
© Pew Research Center
On what date does the election take place 2024 US presidential election?
Voters are set to cast their ballots on November 5th to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election and choose who will serve in the White House for the next four years. However, Americans will not directly elect the president of the United States; instead, they will elect 538 electors based on the number of representatives each state has in Congress. These are the voters, who also have a political color – between blue for the Democrats and red for the Republicans – who will then elect the President and his Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the Head of State will take place on January 20, 2025.
Who are the other candidates for the 2024 US presidential election ?
Three other candidates are in the race and are collecting a few crumbs in the voting intentions – which explains why the total between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than 100: Cornel West, candidate of the People's Party, an independent political party; Chase Olivier, the candidate of the Libertarian Party; Randall Terry, candidate of the Constitution Party and Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. All these candidates have no chance of being elected, given the weakness of their support and their financing. But above all, American political life is entirely structured around two main parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, which provides a framework that ensures both the predominance of two clearly opposed voices and the assurance of a long-term alternation.
How American elections work ?
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the presidential election.