Five Paths to Victory…for Trump or Harris

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Magdaline Boutros

Published at 0:00

• United States

To receive the keys to the White House, a candidate for the American presidential election must win 270 votes in the Electoral College. Made up of 538 electors — distributed according to the demographic weight of each state — the Electoral College is responsible for electing the president and vice president of the United States. In almost all states, the electoral votes are awarded en bloc to the candidate who wins the majority of the votes, according to the “winner-takes-all” system (“winner-takes-all”).

Everything suggests that 43 of the 50 states are already won by one party or the other — the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, is expected to get her hands on 226 electoral college votes and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, on 219.

The election on November 5 will therefore be decided in the seven key states (swing states), totaling 93 electoral votes, where the two candidates are neck and neck. To seal the victory, Harris will need to win a minimum of 44 votes and Trump, 51.

At the end of the race, several scenarios are possible. Le Devoir presents five of them.

Scenario 1: Harris wins the Rust Belt states

The easiest path to victory for Kamala Harris would be to win the three key Rust Belt states: Michigan (15 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes). This scenario would give her exactly the 270 electoral votes required.

These three Midwestern states are often referred to as the “blue wall” (“blue wall“). “It was because of his victory in these states that Joe Biden was able to win the election against Donald Trump in 2020,” recalls William F. Hall, assistant professor of political science at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri.

The choice of Tim Walz—a native of Minnesota, another Midwestern state—as Kamala Harris’ running mate is certainly not unrelated to the Democrats’ desire to plot their path to victory through these three states, says Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona.

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Over the past 30 years, these three swing Rust Belt states have been significantly more Democratic, but Trump is currently tied with Harris in the polls. “A lot of the voters in these states are white, working-class, and without college degrees, and Trump has generally done well with voters in that demographic,” Hall points out.

The Washington Post and CNN report, however, that in these three states—where religion is less prevalent than elsewhere and unions remain strong—Democrats are doing better than anywhere else in the country with white voters without college degrees.

One thing is for sure: If the blue wall holds up, it will certainly live up to its name.

Scenario 2: Harris loses one of the Rust Belt states, but wins Georgia or North Carolina North

If a breach opens in the blue wall, other paths to victory remain possible for Kamala Harris. Since she replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, the party has made a comeback in the polls in the four key Sun Belt states, which allows for several other combinations to be considered.

“If she loses Michigan (15 votes) or Wisconsin (10 votes), she could replace one or the other of these states with a victory in another key state, such as Georgia (16 votes) or North Carolina (16 votes), where she remains very competitive,” analyzes William F. Hall.

But if Harris loses Pennsylvania (19 votes), her path to the White House will be much more complicated. “It’s the swing state with the largest number of electoral votes,” Klar notes. “Winning Pennsylvania would make the path to victory much easier for either candidate and take a lot of the pressure off of winning more of the smaller swing states.”

If Harris loses Pennsylvania, “she would have to make up for that loss [of 19 electoral votes] by winning two other swing states, such as Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16 votes), or by combining with Nevada (6 votes) or Arizona (11 votes),” Hall says.

Another less likely, but still possible, scenario would be for Harris to win all four key Sun Belt states, totaling 49 electoral votes. The doors to the White House would then open to the Democratic candidate without her even having to win a Rust Belt state. Recall that in 2020, Biden won Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, but not North Carolina.

Scenario 3: Trump wins the Sun Belt and a Rust Belt state

For Trump, the easiest path to victory would be to capture the four key Sun Belt states: Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16 votes) in the east, as well as Arizona (11 votes) and Nevada (6 votes) in the west. Such a sweep would give him the votes of 49 electoral votes. He would then only need to win one Rust Belt state to cross the 270 electoral votes mark.

North Carolina voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, so Republicans have high hopes for it. In fact, no Democrat has won the state since 2008. The former president also won Georgia and Arizona in 2016. But those two states slipped from his hands by just over 10,000 votes in the last presidential election. A slim margin that leads Republicans to believe that those states could swing again and pave Trump’s way to the presidency.

This article is part of our Perspectives section.

“Arizona and Georgia currently have more registered Republican voters than Democratic voters,” Klar says. In Arizona, the issue of illegal immigration has drawn a lot of attention during the election campaign, she says. “It’s a border state, and a lot of people are upset about how the border crisis has been handled, so it’s an issue that could benefit Republicans.” Arizona has gone Democratic in the presidential election only twice since 1952.

But other issues, like abortion rights, could draw voters to Harris. Especially since Arizona and Nevada have referendums on abortion that are happening at the same time as the Nov. 5 presidential election. Democrats have won Nevada in the last four presidential elections.

Scenario 4: Trump wins the Rust Belt and one of the populous Sun Belt states

Since 1992, Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) have always voted as a bloc for the same candidate. These three Midwestern states have given their support to the Democrats in every presidential election for three decades, with the exception of 2016, when they voted for Trump.

Could the Republican once again bring down the blue wall?? Such a feat would secure him the vote of 44 electors. He would then only need to win North Carolina (16 votes), Georgia (16 votes) or Arizona (11 votes) to head to the White House. Nevada's 6 electors alone would not be enough for him to obtain the key number of 270 electors.

It should be kept in mind in this scenario, as in the previous one, that since Trump needs to win more electoral votes in the key states than Harris (51 compared to 44), he cannot reach the White House by betting only on the Sun Belt or the Rust Belt. The Republican absolutely must pull off a combination where he captures states in both belts (unless there is a tie, as we will see in the next scenario).

In the context of such a close election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist joke at a Trump rally a few days ago, comparing Puerto Rico to a “floating island of garbage,” could cost him valuable votes among Latinos—who make up 30 percent of the electorate in Arizona and 28 percent in Nevada, notes William F. Hall.

“I think this is a significant incident and the damage is done,” he says. Similarly, Joe Biden's response that Trump supporters are scum could hurt Harris, who is trying to attract moderate Republicans to her ranks, the professor adds.

Scenario 5: A Tie

The astonishing scenario of a tie in the Electoral College is mathematically possible. To achieve a total of 269 electors on both sides—which would create a tie—it would require, for example, that Trump win the four Sun Belt states (49 votes) and Harris retain the three Rust Belt states (44 votes), but that Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (currently assigned to Harris) swing back to Trump (the district voted Republican in 2016, but not in 2020).

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in the United States where electors are not awarded on a winner-take-all basis. In those states, one elector is elected for each congressional district based on the local popular vote (and two more electors are awarded to the candidate who wins the state).

If such a tie occurs, the U.S. Constitution provides that the winner will be determined by the House of Representatives, where each state has one vote—a method that could favor Republicans. The vice president will be elected by the Senate, where each senator has one vote.

“It’s a possible scenario, but it’s unlikely,” Klar says. “A tie would be a first in history. But these days, you can’t rule out anything in American politics.”

William F. Hall, for his part, fears that such a neck-and-neck race could plunge the country into a dark age. “If it’s very close or if it’s a tie, I think we could see a repeat of what happened on January 6, 2020 [with the invasion of the Capitol].” The United States desperately needs a clear winner in this election, he adds. “Because I feel like that’s the only way we’re going to avoid chaos.”