US Election Result: Trump Crushes Game, Harris Still Hoping for Miracle

Donald Trump is the favorite in the Swing states this Wednesday morning: US presidential election results could be folded quickly if the trend continues.

The bottom line: 

• The still partial results of the American election place Donald Trump clearly in the lead. The evolution of the results can be followed in the map of the USA, which appears at the top of this article. For the moment, Donald Trump is sure to have 230 electors, Kamala Harris 205 out of the 270 needed for victory.
• The Republican is now the big favorite, he is given the lead in at least 6 of the 7 Swing States, particularly in North Carolina which he won, but also in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia. For now, nothing is decided, but Kamala Harris will need a historic turnaround.
• Donald Trump could speak before 7 a.m. French time, perhaps to announce his victory in a very anticipated manner.
• The “chances of victory” calculated by the New York Times on a model based on exit polls and then on partial results in the USA, are in favor of Donald Trump. This morning he has a 90% chance of winning.

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06:13 – The Democratic camp continues to bet on these three swing states to win

The Democratic camp cannot hide its disappointment as the estimates all give the advantage to Donald Trump, but Kamala Harris' team does not despair of winning the presidential election and for that in the three swing states of the blue wall: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “The close race is exactly what we expected” wrote the campaign chair of Kamala Harris before adding: “As we continue to see the data trickling in from the Sun Belt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes is through the Blue Wall states. And we are pleased with what we are seeing.” One way to throw a spanner in the works ? While Michigan is still counting, the other two states are nearing completion with over 90% of ballots counted, and the trend there is toward Donald Trump.

06:04 – Kamala Harris wins Hawaii, a victory that makes no difference

New small victory for Kamala Harris who wins the State of Hawaii according to the AP and NBC News agencies which announce the results at 6 am. But this State only reports 4 electors which brings the number of votes of the Democratic candidate to 209. Donald Trump is still given 230 electors.

05:48 – Kamala Harris leads in the State of Virginia

The Democratic candidate wins 13 additional electors by obtaining the majority in the State of Virginia. With 83% of the ballots counted, the preliminary results give 51.2% of the vote for Kamala Harris. She thus counts 205 electors, and climbs the slope a little. Donald Trump, himself, is still at 230 electors.

05:43 – Washington State also blue

The historically Democratic state of Washington is also attributed to the Democratic camp according to information from the AP agency. A victory that allows Kamala Harris to count 12 additional electors and to go to 205 votes.

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05:41 – Kamala Harris wins New Mexico

Kamala Harris has won the state of New Mexico and its 5 electors. She was elected with 52% of the vote, according to preliminary results (76% of ballots counted).

05:38 – Kamala Harris wins Oregon and its eight major electors

The counter goes up a little for Kamala Harris who wins Oregon and its eight major electors according to the AP news agency which in fact attributes 192 votes to the Democratic candidate against 230 for Donald Trump.

North Carolina is the first of the pivotal states to define itself for one or the other candidate. While at the beginning of the forecasts, Kamala Harris seemed to be ahead, it is finally for Donald Trump that the major electors will vote. An omen which does not bode well for the Democrat. His Republican opponent thus scoops up 16 electors, which brings him to 230 according to an AP count. He is only 40 short of winning the electoral battle.

05:08 – A “red mirage” ? Trump's advantage is not confirmed

Donald Trump now seems to be the clear favorite, but observers point out that it is normal at this point for the results to be in his favor: the votes from rural areas are counted first and the weight of large cities, which are much more Democratic, can change the situation. This is what happened 4 years ago, before Joe Biden finally won. It is very likely that the results will tighten from now on, but it is not certain that this will be enough for Kamala Harris to win. The election is still potentially close.

05:04 – Kamala Harris wins 66 electoral votes with California and Washington

California and Washington State elected Kamala Harris. These results were to be expected. The candidate thus won 54 and 12 electors respectively. She thus totals 179 electors for the moment. This is still behind Donald Trump, who has 214.

04:42 – A victory for Donald Trump already celebrated on Fox News

On Fox News, commentators are already announcing and rejoicing in the “greatest comeback in history”, with a victory for Donald Trump. The newspaper Le Monde notes the enthusiasm of the speakers on the American conservative television channel for the Republican candidate, who for the moment unites 210 of the 270 electors necessary for his re-election, according to the Associated Press. They hail the “failure of the traditional media”. 

04:39 – In Georgia, Trump is ahead with 88% of the votes counted

It could be the first swing state to deliver its results, Georgia seems to be destined to Donald Trump: the Republican has a lead of more than 3 points over Kamala Harris with 88% of the votes cast (51.3% against 48.0%).

04:39 – Donald Trump could also win more votes nationally

Still the newspaper of reference The New York Times, the so-called “probability” estimates lean towards a victory for Donald Trump with a higher score at the end of the election in number of votes over the entire electorate. For now, Donald Trump has a lead of nearly 5 million votes over Kamala Harris (47 million against 42 million).

04:37 – Pennsylvania rather Republican ?

While Kamala Harris was in the lead in the very first estimates, Donald Trump has finally moved back into the lead. With 57% of the ballots counted, the preliminary results lean more towards the Republican, with 50.9% of the vote. The two candidates are more than ever neck and neck in this state, which could well be the key to win the election in its entirety.

The New York Times gives trends in the 7 key states that will swing the election. For the newspaper, it is very likely that Donald Trump will win in the states of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. It looks closer in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. But even in these 4 states, it is Donald Trump who is given more capacity to win according to the New York Times.

04:02 – 109 Electoral Colleges for Kamala Harris with the Addition of Colorado

Kamala Harris has won Colorado and its 10 electors, bringing the number of electors already secured to 109. With nearly half of the ballots counted, the Democratic candidate has won 55.9% of the vote in this state.

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The projections made on the basis of the latest polls, broken down state by state, are undoubtedly the most relevant for having a vision of the most probable results of this American presidential election. Here is the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gave this Wednesday, November 5, the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes with the number of electors for Harris and for Trump:

In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, these “Swing states” are the ones that will swing the presidential election, because whoever wins there usually wins nationally. Here are the latest voting intentions in the most important swing states, according to Real Clear Politics:

• If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electors from the swing states, she will be elected president.
• Donald Trump needs 51 electors from these 7 states to win this presidential election.

How American elections work ?

The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.

In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the presidential election.